The authors show reasons might include soft demand (orders), insufficient labor supply, and lags in the production process (average period of production or APP). (3/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote #EconSky

But looking across industries, this spare capacity is not particularly concentrated in industries gaining new tariff protection. In 2025 so far, capacity utilization has not risen more in industries receiving more new import protection. (2/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote

We have several per capita exercises in the Brookings paper

There is much more to learn, but we can already rule out some of the stories people initially consider.

1. The surge isn't about PPP fraud.

2. It's not just gig economy stuff.

3. It's not just about dislocated workers with no better options.

More research to come!

Finally, in this recent short update we describe data on actual employer firms births, the size of the new entrants, and the recent cooling (though still elevated) pace of entry. rdeckernet.github.io/website/DH_b...

In this short note, we explored high tech industries specifically, which saw a disproportionate surge in biz entry. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

I'm this @brookingsinst.bsky.social paper, we documented pandemic-related themes in the biz formation data, including industry patterns, geographic patterns, and even correlation with the "Great Resignation" story. www.brookings.edu/articles/sur...

Lots of details on this in a couple of recent papers bsky.app/profile/jcha...

We have updated our findings from the BPEA paper recently. See:

rdeckernet.github.io/website/DH_b...

Ryan Decker and I have studied the surge in new business applications finding that it has led to a surge in new employer businesses. See:
www.brookings.edu/articles/sur...