And you can read it open-access here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

The paper was co-authored with @anavicedo9.bsky.social Sihan Li @frediotto.bsky.social Kristine Belesova, Andy Haines @harrinluke.bsky.social Jeremy Hess, Rashmi Venkatraman @thomwetzer.bsky.social Alistair Woodward @krisebi.bsky.social - @smithschool.ox.ac.uk

Finally, we quantified individual companies' emissions' contributions to heat-related deaths using a simple 'market-share' approach that quantifies attributable deaths in proportion to emissions. The six highest-emitting companies globally caused at least one additional death each summer since 2004.

A benefit of this approach was that we could use daily observed mortality data to quantify heat-related deaths, rather than mean mortality for the day of the year, allowing us to more precisely quantify how many attributable deaths occured on any given day.

To quantify heat-mortality during and outside of heatwaves, we modified the approach used elsewhere and calculated counterfactual temperatures by subtracting attributable temperature anomalies from observations, producing a 50-yr time series that matches observed temperature flucturations.

We then quantified heat-mortality during and outside heatwaves. The hottest temperatures often get the most attention - and heat deaths are indeed highest then - but three-quarters of heat mortality attributable to human influence on the climate in 2018 occurred outside of the 12-day heatwave.

in KlimaSeniorinnen v Switzerland to justify its finding that Switzerland needed to reduce emissions: "Although the applicants could agree that adaptation was also crucial, it was not an answer to what Switzerland should have done to mitigate climate change." hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#_ftnref178

Our finding shows that changes in vulnerability can reduce heat-mortality, but at least in Zurich, it's still not been enough. Only ceasing GHG emissions will stop the burden of climate change-caused deaths from rising further. As a preprint, the European Court of Human Rights cited this result...

We conducted experiments where we applied the heat-mortality relationship from the 1980s/90s to 2004-2018 as a 'constant vulnerability' baseline and found that >700 deaths had been avoided by declining vulnerability. But attributable heat-related deaths had continued to rise in any case.

We knew that vulnerability to heat changes with time: e.g. behavioural/infrastructual adaptation to heat would be reducing vulnerability while population ageing has the opposite effect. But what is the overall effect of changing vulnerability? Could it be enough to counteract the effects of warming?

The guidance is designed to be inclusive and method-agnostic, identifying key steps for robust, high quality analyses. We hope that it will prove useful to study authors, reviewers, journal editors and research funders.

Available here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Our new article is available open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@smithschool.ox.ac.uk @oxfordgeography.bsky.social @oxfordlawfac.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @granthamicl.bsky.social

Legal analysis, in conjunction with the risks associated with CDR-dependent targets assessed here, could clarify states’ mitigation obligations under international law and facilitate progression past a risk-blind and indiscriminate use of scientific pathways in assessing states’ targets. More soon!

That previous work was published in @science.org and can be found here: www.science.org/doi/full/10....

To minimise risks associated with reliance on CO2 removal, states should prioritise pathways that minimise overshoot and dependence on removals to reach net-zero. Risks associated with high CDR dependence might render state action inconsistent with norms and principles of international law.

-- Reliance on international cooperation to deliver CO2 removal (e.g. via carbon trading mechanisms) is also common in states' plans and amplifies these risks.

-- Non-delivery of planned CO2 removal would raise global temperatures further, worsening the impacts of climate change.