Tl;dr: Collins overperformed by 18% in 2020 off strength among women, college graduates, and older voters — all Dem-leaning constituencies. To win, any opponent will have to cut into her advantage with those voters, who split their ticket between her and Biden, more so than young/non-college men.

Thanks for the tag

Agreed, and when I signed on I pointed the organizers to a number of very talented women but unfortunately it didn’t come to fruition.

Readers of Inside Elections knew this tidbit a week ago thanks to our 101-district House overview that included hundreds of names of current and potential House candidates across the country. If you're not subscribing, you're already behind.
insideelections.com/edition/9/17

Of course, that kind of resource diversion game is less helpful when you need to flip 4 seats, not just hold serve like in 2022. The Dem majority is based on ME + NC, then two of OH, IA, and TX — none of which will come anywhere close to easy. Ohio alone wouldn’t cut it.

2022 is illustrative of the effect a competitive Ohio race can have on the map even if Democrats don’t win. Tim Ryan’s spirited campaign + JD Vance’s struggles forced Republicans to spend $10s of millions that could have bucked up candidates elsewhere, helping Dems go +1 overall.

Forsythe would join state House Minority Leader Pam Stevenson in the Democratic primary for Mitch McConnell’s open seat, which is rated Solid Republican. Inside Elections first reported this news in yesterday’s Senate overview issue. Subscribe! t.co/SM4n7g6E6W