But internal cohesion--essential to the implementation of whatever deal is reached--augurs waiting and seeing if those contradictions resolve without providing too much input that would sway how they are reconciled. Will be watching closely! 6/6

5) Biggest variables are miscalculations of other side's priorities, internal cohesion (can Trump team speak with one voice?), and third parties/major events. Miscalculation and third party/event risk best managed through early meeting with low expectations... 5/6

4) We could see the US-Ch negotiate back to square one--the removal of restrictions on critical minerals, lifting of certain sanctions, tariffs go back to today's baseline, etc. This is still progress though, its a passable test of new players feeling each other out. 4/6

3) That opening gesture can set up a future bilat with more time to make progress on process/deliverables. The strategic question is whether the current moves/threats by both sides are anticipatory concessions or total spoilers 3/6

2) The Chinese would prefer a mtg that is bilateral (not Xi in a crowd) and controllable (no protests, some deliverables)--the inauguration is neither. However, Xi can send a personal envoy, a special gift, a letter, etc to pay respect to Trump 2/6