Huge thanks to all my co-authors for their important work exploring the interactions between nature and economics: Jeffrey Althouse, Bastien Bedossa, @espagneetienne.bsky.social, Léna Faucher, @mdgonon.bsky.social, Katie Kedward, Angela Modica Scala, Adam Poupard

We hope this paper will contribute to ongoing debates by offering concrete alternatives to the use of models that, by their very design and purpose, will unlikely reveal macro-critical issues related to nature scenarios.
Comments welcome!

We do so by using both: relatively simple tools (based on input-output tables) to assess short-term economic and financial exposures to specific scenarios; and two of the ecological macroeconomic models mentioned above for medium-term assessments.

3. We apply these insights through four case studies to illustrate how nature-related impacts can propagate through production and financial networks, with potentially large positive or negative impacts at the macro level.

2. We explore the potential of non-equilibrium ecological macroeconomic models to reflect the interdependencies between biodiversity, economic activity and financial stability. Rather than forcing automatic convergence towards an optimal state, they track the dynamic evolution of trajectories.

1. We provide a thematic summary of a broad range of nature-related transition scenarios, to support future economic assessments of nature loss or transition pathways through a more comprehensive approach.

The paper takes the 2023 NGFS report on recommendations towards the development of nature-related scenarios as a starting point - notably regarding its assessment of the limitations of scenarios and models being used to assess the macro-criticality of nature - and seeks to make 3 contributions:

This paper puts together some of the projects on which the #C3A (www.climatecapacitycoalition.org) Nature Transition Hub has been working for the past year, and it also features some closely connected work being carried out separately by different members of the Hub.