Rohan J
@rohan-j.bsky.social
Macroeconomics & financial markets
Thinking out loud about markets
Not financial advice
Thinking out loud about markets
Not financial advice
Markets can handle tight policy. They struggle with politicised policy.
Central banking must remain separate from political leadership, once that line blurs, risk premia rise and volatility is structural.
From a market perspective, that ultimately means Trump isn’t doing himself any favours, imo.
Central banking must remain separate from political leadership, once that line blurs, risk premia rise and volatility is structural.
From a market perspective, that ultimately means Trump isn’t doing himself any favours, imo.
January 12, 2026 at 11:06 AM
Markets can handle tight policy. They struggle with politicised policy.
Central banking must remain separate from political leadership, once that line blurs, risk premia rise and volatility is structural.
From a market perspective, that ultimately means Trump isn’t doing himself any favours, imo.
Central banking must remain separate from political leadership, once that line blurs, risk premia rise and volatility is structural.
From a market perspective, that ultimately means Trump isn’t doing himself any favours, imo.
The “no-hire” dynamic is interesting, cooling without layoffs. Curious how you think markets price it?
If growth slows but policy stays on hold, does it really matter for equities and digital assets? Or does risk only show up if this turns into layoffs and credit stress?
If growth slows but policy stays on hold, does it really matter for equities and digital assets? Or does risk only show up if this turns into layoffs and credit stress?
January 11, 2026 at 8:46 PM
The “no-hire” dynamic is interesting, cooling without layoffs. Curious how you think markets price it?
If growth slows but policy stays on hold, does it really matter for equities and digital assets? Or does risk only show up if this turns into layoffs and credit stress?
If growth slows but policy stays on hold, does it really matter for equities and digital assets? Or does risk only show up if this turns into layoffs and credit stress?
This is where a systems lens helps.
Headlines matter, but markets usually move more when macro and liquidity conditions are actually improving.
Right now, both look fairly neutral, so despite the news flow, BTC and digital assets are choppy and range-bound.
Headlines matter, but markets usually move more when macro and liquidity conditions are actually improving.
Right now, both look fairly neutral, so despite the news flow, BTC and digital assets are choppy and range-bound.
January 11, 2026 at 11:51 AM
This is where a systems lens helps.
Headlines matter, but markets usually move more when macro and liquidity conditions are actually improving.
Right now, both look fairly neutral, so despite the news flow, BTC and digital assets are choppy and range-bound.
Headlines matter, but markets usually move more when macro and liquidity conditions are actually improving.
Right now, both look fairly neutral, so despite the news flow, BTC and digital assets are choppy and range-bound.
From a top-down investing lens, fast-moving liquidity metrics often matter more than individual data prints.
As long as financial conditions aren’t tightening (which they now are not), equities can grind higher despite the high valuations and without good news.
As long as financial conditions aren’t tightening (which they now are not), equities can grind higher despite the high valuations and without good news.
January 11, 2026 at 11:36 AM
From a top-down investing lens, fast-moving liquidity metrics often matter more than individual data prints.
As long as financial conditions aren’t tightening (which they now are not), equities can grind higher despite the high valuations and without good news.
As long as financial conditions aren’t tightening (which they now are not), equities can grind higher despite the high valuations and without good news.
So very common.
Active investing is hard in this kind of environment. Risk free rates and ERP is high, macro and liquidity aren’t very supportive, and uncertainty is elevated. When cash competes and forecasts get pulled forward (AI narratives included), outperforming indices proves to be tough.
Active investing is hard in this kind of environment. Risk free rates and ERP is high, macro and liquidity aren’t very supportive, and uncertainty is elevated. When cash competes and forecasts get pulled forward (AI narratives included), outperforming indices proves to be tough.
January 10, 2026 at 10:14 AM
So very common.
Active investing is hard in this kind of environment. Risk free rates and ERP is high, macro and liquidity aren’t very supportive, and uncertainty is elevated. When cash competes and forecasts get pulled forward (AI narratives included), outperforming indices proves to be tough.
Active investing is hard in this kind of environment. Risk free rates and ERP is high, macro and liquidity aren’t very supportive, and uncertainty is elevated. When cash competes and forecasts get pulled forward (AI narratives included), outperforming indices proves to be tough.