Roger Creel
@rogercreel.bsky.social
Climate geophysicist at WHOI || Assistant Professor at Texas A&M starting fall 2025 || sea level + ice sheets + permafrost || PhD Columbia / BA Amherst || rogercreel.com || Views my own.
North American ice sheets may have persisted into past warm periods --- and this matters for projections of future ice sheet mass loss.
Check out our new preprint! eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
With @bobkopp.net , @drandreadutton.bsky.social , and co.
Check out our new preprint! eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
With @bobkopp.net , @drandreadutton.bsky.social , and co.
April 28, 2025 at 11:12 AM
North American ice sheets may have persisted into past warm periods --- and this matters for projections of future ice sheet mass loss.
Check out our new preprint! eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
With @bobkopp.net , @drandreadutton.bsky.social , and co.
Check out our new preprint! eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
With @bobkopp.net , @drandreadutton.bsky.social , and co.
Looking to have your jaw drop? Check out the Zanclean flood.
January 21, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Looking to have your jaw drop? Check out the Zanclean flood.
We further show that global mean sea level rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years. By 2060, global mean sea level will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.
December 30, 2024 at 5:00 PM
We further show that global mean sea level rise by 2150 will very likely (P = 0.9) be the fastest in the last 5000 years. By 2060, global mean sea level will as likely than not (P = 0.5) be the highest in 115,000 years.
We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) global mean sea level exceeded early industrial levels in the last 7500 years, reaching 0.24 meters (−3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3200 years ago. Antarctica was also likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7000 years ago.
December 30, 2024 at 5:00 PM
We show it is likely (probability P = 0.75) global mean sea level exceeded early industrial levels in the last 7500 years, reaching 0.24 meters (−3.3 to 1.0 m, 90% credible interval) above present by 3200 years ago. Antarctica was also likely (P = 0.78) smaller than present after 7000 years ago.
We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment
model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene global mean sea level and ice volume.
model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene global mean sea level and ice volume.
December 30, 2024 at 5:00 PM
We merge sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment
model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene global mean sea level and ice volume.
model ensemble and reconstructions of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution to estimate Holocene global mean sea level and ice volume.
We also present a novel reconstruction of West Antarctic Ice Sheet volume constrained by sea-level data, which demonstrates that moraine formation coincided with a large-scale West Antarctic readvance. (5/6)
December 19, 2024 at 5:13 PM
We also present a novel reconstruction of West Antarctic Ice Sheet volume constrained by sea-level data, which demonstrates that moraine formation coincided with a large-scale West Antarctic readvance. (5/6)
To fill this knowledge gap, we present cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages of cobbles from the surface of a moraine situated between Thwaites and Pope glaciers. (3/6)
December 19, 2024 at 5:13 PM
To fill this knowledge gap, we present cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages of cobbles from the surface of a moraine situated between Thwaites and Pope glaciers. (3/6)
🔥New paper alert!🔥 We show that ice near Thwaites Glacier was thicker 1.4 kyr ago, which fits West Antarctica growing in the Common Era. Led by @cosmokeir.bsky.social, with key work from @radatmines.bsky.social, @mmglacialgeo.bsky.social, @geologicaljo.bsky.social, @stever60.bsky.social, + more. 🧵
December 19, 2024 at 5:13 PM
🔥New paper alert!🔥 We show that ice near Thwaites Glacier was thicker 1.4 kyr ago, which fits West Antarctica growing in the Common Era. Led by @cosmokeir.bsky.social, with key work from @radatmines.bsky.social, @mmglacialgeo.bsky.social, @geologicaljo.bsky.social, @stever60.bsky.social, + more. 🧵
We find that due to glacial isostatic adjustment, synchronous but asymmetric Last Interglacial ice change causes multiple relative sea level (RSL) peaks, separated by ∼4.2 ± 2.5 m of RSL fall near North America and ∼1.3 ± 0.7 m around the Indian Ocean. This spatial pattern resembles observations.
December 17, 2024 at 9:16 PM
We find that due to glacial isostatic adjustment, synchronous but asymmetric Last Interglacial ice change causes multiple relative sea level (RSL) peaks, separated by ∼4.2 ± 2.5 m of RSL fall near North America and ∼1.3 ± 0.7 m around the Indian Ocean. This spatial pattern resembles observations.
However, evidence for an LIS outburst flood at ca. 125 ka and extensive early-LIG Antarctic melt suggests that Laurentide remnants may have persisted longer into the LIG than typically thought even as Antarctic melt accelerated. (see Zhou et al., 2022, their Fig 1. below)
December 17, 2024 at 9:14 PM
However, evidence for an LIS outburst flood at ca. 125 ka and extensive early-LIG Antarctic melt suggests that Laurentide remnants may have persisted longer into the LIG than typically thought even as Antarctic melt accelerated. (see Zhou et al., 2022, their Fig 1. below)
🔥New paper alert! 🔥 Jacky Austermann and I show that simultaneous Antarctic collapse + Laurentide persistence during the Last Interglacial (130,000 - 115,000 years ago) could explain the local sea level oscillation observed in the Bahamas, Seychelles, Australia, and elsewhere. tinyurl.com/yjj7w2mr 🧵
December 17, 2024 at 9:10 PM
🔥New paper alert! 🔥 Jacky Austermann and I show that simultaneous Antarctic collapse + Laurentide persistence during the Last Interglacial (130,000 - 115,000 years ago) could explain the local sea level oscillation observed in the Bahamas, Seychelles, Australia, and elsewhere. tinyurl.com/yjj7w2mr 🧵
Our findings underscore that coastal communities will need support to adapt to the paradigm shift that Arctic coastlines may soon undergo. (6/6)
December 3, 2024 at 8:32 PM
Our findings underscore that coastal communities will need support to adapt to the paradigm shift that Arctic coastlines may soon undergo. (6/6)
Projecting Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain to 2100, we show that unless coasts respond differently to future change, the compound effects of subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion may transform 6-8x more land than erosion alone will impact, and disturb 8-11x more organic carbon. (5/6)
December 3, 2024 at 8:31 PM
Projecting Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain to 2100, we show that unless coasts respond differently to future change, the compound effects of subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion may transform 6-8x more land than erosion alone will impact, and disturb 8-11x more organic carbon. (5/6)
Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for addressing this knowledge gap due to the region’s relatively abundant observational data and importance to Indigenous communities, socioeconomics, and geopolitics. (4/6)
December 3, 2024 at 8:25 PM
Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for addressing this knowledge gap due to the region’s relatively abundant observational data and importance to Indigenous communities, socioeconomics, and geopolitics. (4/6)
Arctic coastlines are changing rapidly due to the combination of permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion. (2/6)
December 3, 2024 at 8:22 PM
Arctic coastlines are changing rapidly due to the combination of permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion. (2/6)
A new PNAS paper, led by me, Julia Guimond, and Ben Jones, shows how Arctic coastal land loss may accelerate because of sea level rise, permafrost subsidence, and erosion. 🎁: doi.org/10.1073/pnas... 🧵
December 3, 2024 at 8:19 PM
A new PNAS paper, led by me, Julia Guimond, and Ben Jones, shows how Arctic coastal land loss may accelerate because of sea level rise, permafrost subsidence, and erosion. 🎁: doi.org/10.1073/pnas... 🧵
Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for addressing this knowledge gap due to the region’s relatively abundant observational data and importance to Indigenous communities, socioeconomics, and geopolitics. (©️ Ben Jones) (4/n)
December 3, 2024 at 8:17 PM
Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for addressing this knowledge gap due to the region’s relatively abundant observational data and importance to Indigenous communities, socioeconomics, and geopolitics. (©️ Ben Jones) (4/n)
Arctic coastlines are changing rapidly due to the combination of permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion. (©️ Ben Jones) 2/n
December 3, 2024 at 8:14 PM
Arctic coastlines are changing rapidly due to the combination of permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion. (©️ Ben Jones) 2/n