Rodrigo Nunes | Real State Brazil
@rodrigorealstate.bsky.social
Insights on Brazil's high-end property market. Connecting global trends to local opportunities in Campinas and São Paulo. | Rodrigo Nunes, Real Estate Intelligence.
Projections for 2025\2026. Consumption is expected to decelerate in 2025 due to higher bank interest, pressure from essential item inflation, and reduced credit volume, although a still-warm labor market limits losses
October 31, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Projections for 2025\2026. Consumption is expected to decelerate in 2025 due to higher bank interest, pressure from essential item inflation, and reduced credit volume, although a still-warm labor market limits losses
Long-Term Retail Outlook. Sales of durable goods (aimed at higher classes) are projected to perform better in the medium term, as the slower income growth and inflation pressure for essentials limit the consumption of the poor.
October 31, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Long-Term Retail Outlook. Sales of durable goods (aimed at higher classes) are projected to perform better in the medium term, as the slower income growth and inflation pressure for essentials limit the consumption of the poor.
Retail Sales and Income. Total income mass shows a high correlation with retail indices. Segments like supermarkets (0.92) and pharmaceuticals (0.95) have particularly strong linear relationships with income mass. #RetailSales #EconomicIndicators #Correlation
October 31, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Retail Sales and Income. Total income mass shows a high correlation with retail indices. Segments like supermarkets (0.92) and pharmaceuticals (0.95) have particularly strong linear relationships with income mass. #RetailSales #EconomicIndicators #Correlation
Housing: The Top Expense. Regardless of income class, Housing is the principal consumption expense in Brazil. It accounts for 23.6% (Class A) to 37.5% (Classes D/E) of total household expenditure. #HousingCosts #HouseholdSpending #CostOfLiving
October 30, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Housing: The Top Expense. Regardless of income class, Housing is the principal consumption expense in Brazil. It accounts for 23.6% (Class A) to 37.5% (Classes D/E) of total household expenditure. #HousingCosts #HouseholdSpending #CostOfLiving
Labor Market sustains consumption. The robust labor market performance (high employment, low unemployment) is a key factor sustaining consumption in the short term (2024). However, a slowdown is expected in 2025. #LaborMarket #ConsumptionTrends #Brazil2025
October 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Labor Market sustains consumption. The robust labor market performance (high employment, low unemployment) is a key factor sustaining consumption in the short term (2024). However, a slowdown is expected in 2025. #LaborMarket #ConsumptionTrends #Brazil2025
Class C Consumption Power. Class C's available non-essential consumption income is projected at R$ 390.7 billion in 2024 (+8.4% vs. 2023). Essential items account for a substantial 71.4% of their budget.
October 30, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Class C Consumption Power. Class C's available non-essential consumption income is projected at R$ 390.7 billion in 2024 (+8.4% vs. 2023). Essential items account for a substantial 71.4% of their budget.
Class B Consumption Power. Class B is expected to have R$ 586.5 billion available for non-essential consumption in 2024 (+7.8% vs. 2023). Essential items represent a higher 61.4% of their family budget.
October 29, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Class B Consumption Power. Class B is expected to have R$ 586.5 billion available for non-essential consumption in 2024 (+7.8% vs. 2023). Essential items represent a higher 61.4% of their family budget.
Class A Consumption Power. Class A is projected to have R$ 1.4 trillion available for non-essential consumption in 2024 (+7.4% vs. 2023). Essential items represent 48.3% of their family budget. Source: IBGE: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
October 29, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Class A Consumption Power. Class A is projected to have R$ 1.4 trillion available for non-essential consumption in 2024 (+7.4% vs. 2023). Essential items represent 48.3% of their family budget. Source: IBGE: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
Monetary Policy's Impact. Current monetary policy (high Selic rate) is set to benefit Class A households dependent on financial capital remuneration. Rate is projected to peak at 14.75% in May 2025.
October 29, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Monetary Policy's Impact. Current monetary policy (high Selic rate) is set to benefit Class A households dependent on financial capital remuneration. Rate is projected to peak at 14.75% in May 2025.
Salaries and Minimum Wage. The valued minimum wage in 2024 (R$ 1,412.00) is expected to boost real habitual earnings, with a projected real growth of 3%. This is calculated based on prior year inflation + two-year-old GDP growth.
October 29, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Salaries and Minimum Wage. The valued minimum wage in 2024 (R$ 1,412.00) is expected to boost real habitual earnings, with a projected real growth of 3%. This is calculated based on prior year inflation + two-year-old GDP growth.
Obstacle to Income Growth. The main hindrance to income growth for lower social strata is education not translated into productivity. Entering the labor market is essential but not enough to overcome poverty.
October 28, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Obstacle to Income Growth. The main hindrance to income growth for lower social strata is education not translated into productivity. Entering the labor market is essential but not enough to overcome poverty.
Social Mobility Challenge. Long-term social mobility for the poorest classes (D and E) is expected to be slow, a phenomenon typical of countries with high income inequality.
October 28, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Social Mobility Challenge. Long-term social mobility for the poorest classes (D and E) is expected to be slow, a phenomenon typical of countries with high income inequality.
Government Transfers' Importance. Classes D/E depend strongly on federal social policies like the Bolsa Família and BPC, which account for 17.6% of their income composition.
October 28, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Government Transfers' Importance. Classes D/E depend strongly on federal social policies like the Bolsa Família and BPC, which account for 17.6% of their income composition.
The Middle Class (C & B) Income. Classes C and B depend largely on wages (labor income). Labor represents 90.8% of Class C income and 86.7% of Class B income in 2024.
October 27, 2025 at 9:30 PM
The Middle Class (C & B) Income. Classes C and B depend largely on wages (labor income). Labor represents 90.8% of Class C income and 86.7% of Class B income in 2024.
Origin of Income: Class A. The top income class relies heavily on Other Sources of Income (76.0% in 2024), including interest, rent, and profits (remuneration of capital). #ClassAIncome #CapitalGains #Investments
October 27, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Origin of Income: Class A. The top income class relies heavily on Other Sources of Income (76.0% in 2024), including interest, rent, and profits (remuneration of capital). #ClassAIncome #CapitalGains #Investments
Classes D/E and Consumption. For the poorest population, a drop or increase in income has a direct impact on consumption due to budget constraints, unlike wealthier classes with available consumption budgets.
October 27, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Classes D/E and Consumption. For the poorest population, a drop or increase in income has a direct impact on consumption due to budget constraints, unlike wealthier classes with available consumption budgets.
The Engine of Recovery. Higher social classes (A and B) are projected to lead the recovery of household income in the long term, due to a greater concentration of employers at the top of the social pyramid.
October 27, 2025 at 11:02 AM
The Engine of Recovery. Higher social classes (A and B) are projected to lead the recovery of household income in the long term, due to a greater concentration of employers at the top of the social pyramid.
Income Class A in 2024: Defined as households with a monthly income above R$ 25.2 thousand. This class is expected to see an 8.0% increase in total income mass in 2024.
October 26, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Income Class A in 2024: Defined as households with a monthly income above R$ 25.2 thousand. This class is expected to see an 8.0% increase in total income mass in 2024.
Wealth Concentration in Brazil. The concentration of income in Brazil means the arithmetic average household income is often overestimated due to high earnings in the upper social strata. Stratified analysis is key.
October 26, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Wealth Concentration in Brazil. The concentration of income in Brazil means the arithmetic average household income is often overestimated due to high earnings in the upper social strata. Stratified analysis is key.
Brazil's Income Outlook: 2024-2034. New report analyzes income and consumption classes in Brazil, providing crucial insights for socioeconomic development scenarios and addressing inequality.
October 26, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Brazil's Income Outlook: 2024-2034. New report analyzes income and consumption classes in Brazil, providing crucial insights for socioeconomic development scenarios and addressing inequality.
20/20 Conclusion: the strategic opportunity in Brazil is not macroeconomic, but idiosyncratic. The greatest return will come from the ability to anticipate monetary normalization and the resolution of internal regulatory bottlenecks.
October 24, 2025 at 8:01 PM
20/20 Conclusion: the strategic opportunity in Brazil is not macroeconomic, but idiosyncratic. The greatest return will come from the ability to anticipate monetary normalization and the resolution of internal regulatory bottlenecks.
19/20 This rental inflation, in turn, attracts more income-focused investors (buy-to-let), perpetuating the pressure on prices and the profitability of the rental cycle.
October 24, 2025 at 4:02 PM
19/20 This rental inflation, in turn, attracts more income-focused investors (buy-to-let), perpetuating the pressure on prices and the profitability of the rental cycle.
18/20 The market feeds itself. High interest rates and restricted supply push the middle class towards renting, causing hyperinflation in rental prices—with increases of 20-24% in Campinas.
October 24, 2025 at 11:30 AM
18/20 The market feeds itself. High interest rates and restricted supply push the middle class towards renting, causing hyperinflation in rental prices—with increases of 20-24% in Campinas.
17/20 In an environment of persistent inflation, real return is the only relevant metric. Sophisticated capital must migrate from passive appreciation strategies to the generation of real, niche-focused alpha.
October 23, 2025 at 8:01 PM
17/20 In an environment of persistent inflation, real return is the only relevant metric. Sophisticated capital must migrate from passive appreciation strategies to the generation of real, niche-focused alpha.
16/20 The "nominal illusion" must be demystified. Brazil's 7.7% nominal growth, celebrated in global indices, translates into a real gain of only 2.8% after adjusting for inflation.
October 23, 2025 at 3:02 PM
16/20 The "nominal illusion" must be demystified. Brazil's 7.7% nominal growth, celebrated in global indices, translates into a real gain of only 2.8% after adjusting for inflation.