Rob Wood
@robwoodecon.bsky.social
Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
UK inflation expectations are modestly deanchored.
5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.
5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.
September 12, 2025 at 11:40 AM
UK inflation expectations are modestly deanchored.
5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.
5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.
You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year reach the strongest in 14 months in July.
July 28, 2025 at 12:47 PM
You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year reach the strongest in 14 months in July.
Pay slowdown this year is also mainly driven by firms passing NICS into weaker wages, rather than weak demand.
July 28, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Pay slowdown this year is also mainly driven by firms passing NICS into weaker wages, rather than weak demand.
UK payrolls driven by NICS rather than weak demand. Sectors with high share of part-time workers—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employment—opportunity to cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerates job falls.
July 28, 2025 at 7:41 AM
UK payrolls driven by NICS rather than weak demand. Sectors with high share of part-time workers—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employment—opportunity to cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerates job falls.
UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.
July 25, 2025 at 9:15 AM
UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.
Most of the improvement in LFS sample size had happened by the base, so on that basis there will be little bias in latest 3 on 3
July 17, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Most of the improvement in LFS sample size had happened by the base, so on that basis there will be little bias in latest 3 on 3
Payrolls still overstating job growth relative to surveys and one of best performing models points to improvement. REC is one of the poorest performing surveys for forecasting job growth. Best surveys point to more like 15k falls in employees and DMP now suggests rises.
July 17, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Payrolls still overstating job growth relative to surveys and one of best performing models points to improvement. REC is one of the poorest performing surveys for forecasting job growth. Best surveys point to more like 15k falls in employees and DMP now suggests rises.
The ONS say the low LFS vs PAYE in 2023 was due to poor sampling and LFS *was* catching up. ONS say that process has worked through by now (see below). Question remains, do you believe payrolls more, which were just revised job falls so far this year in *half*.
July 17, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The ONS say the low LFS vs PAYE in 2023 was due to poor sampling and LFS *was* catching up. ONS say that process has worked through by now (see below). Question remains, do you believe payrolls more, which were just revised job falls so far this year in *half*.
More volatile yes, not upward biased
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
July 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
More volatile yes, not upward biased
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
In any case, what's wrong with WfJ?
Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet.
Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.
Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.
July 17, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet.
Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.
Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.
Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in line with their typical pattern. The question is, why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, job falls are easing now.
July 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in line with their typical pattern. The question is, why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, job falls are easing now.
Shall we call it the estate agents' PMI?
July 7, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Shall we call it the estate agents' PMI?
Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.
June 4, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.
Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.
June 2, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.
The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.
May 21, 2025 at 7:35 AM
The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.
What if I told you that first estimates of the saving rate have been revised down 1.1pp on *average* since 1997,. The ONS have already revised down the 2023Q4 saving rate by 2.1pp (5/n)
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
What if I told you that first estimates of the saving rate have been revised down 1.1pp on *average* since 1997,. The ONS have already revised down the 2023Q4 saving rate by 2.1pp (5/n)
Granted the quoted 2-year mortgage rate is about 70bp higher now than in early 2010, but the proportion of households reporting that it was somewhat or very difficult to pay the mortgage or rent is falling quick; it dropped from 42% in October 2023 to 31% in February 2025 (4/n)
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Granted the quoted 2-year mortgage rate is about 70bp higher now than in early 2010, but the proportion of households reporting that it was somewhat or very difficult to pay the mortgage or rent is falling quick; it dropped from 42% in October 2023 to 31% in February 2025 (4/n)
Does this pass the smell test? Are economic conditions as bad as during the worst global economic crisis in a century? People reliably save more when unemployment is higher yet in Q1 2010 the unemployment rate was 8.0%, nearly *double* its current level (3/n)
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Does this pass the smell test? Are economic conditions as bad as during the worst global economic crisis in a century? People reliably save more when unemployment is higher yet in Q1 2010 the unemployment rate was 8.0%, nearly *double* its current level (3/n)
Are more bad data leading us to misdiagnose the UK economy. Put another way can we really trust that the UK cash saving rate rose to an all-time high in Q4 2024 as the ONS reported this morning? The chart is startling, with households saving 12.0% of their income in Q4 (1/n)
March 28, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Are more bad data leading us to misdiagnose the UK economy. Put another way can we really trust that the UK cash saving rate rose to an all-time high in Q4 2024 as the ONS reported this morning? The chart is startling, with households saving 12.0% of their income in Q4 (1/n)
Retail sales continue their rebound after the Budget knocked confidence for a couple of months. Retail sales volumes have been trending up pretty solidly since late 2023 and 3m year-over-year growth reached the highest since March 2022. GDP growth will rebound in Q1.
March 28, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Retail sales continue their rebound after the Budget knocked confidence for a couple of months. Retail sales volumes have been trending up pretty solidly since late 2023 and 3m year-over-year growth reached the highest since March 2022. GDP growth will rebound in Q1.
Meanwhile, in other news that may have gone under the radar today. Uh-oh. Household 5-10 year ahead inflation expectations rise to the highest since October 2022, when actual inflation was 11.1%. Anchored these are not. Paging Andrew Bailey.....
March 26, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Meanwhile, in other news that may have gone under the radar today. Uh-oh. Household 5-10 year ahead inflation expectations rise to the highest since October 2022, when actual inflation was 11.1%. Anchored these are not. Paging Andrew Bailey.....
The OBR's analysis excellently cuts through the noise. The Chancellor backloads corrective action to the end of the 5-year forecast, raising spending in the near-term and boosting capital spending throughout forecast (2/n)
March 26, 2025 at 5:58 PM
The OBR's analysis excellently cuts through the noise. The Chancellor backloads corrective action to the end of the 5-year forecast, raising spending in the near-term and boosting capital spending throughout forecast (2/n)
Fiscal statements are quite something to watch. The Chancellor talked a good game, but ultimately Ms. Reeves plans to borrow more in every year of the OBR's forecasts and raised spending in the near-term. Make me virtuous, but not yet (1/n)
March 26, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Fiscal statements are quite something to watch. The Chancellor talked a good game, but ultimately Ms. Reeves plans to borrow more in every year of the OBR's forecasts and raised spending in the near-term. Make me virtuous, but not yet (1/n)
Ah, PMI day. Always fun. Job cuts apparently moved from as bad as the month after Lehman's bankruptcy, to merely as bad as last October—when payrolls rose. We all know the problems: qualitative survey; responses can reflect sentiment. Treat with plenty of salt.
March 24, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Ah, PMI day. Always fun. Job cuts apparently moved from as bad as the month after Lehman's bankruptcy, to merely as bad as last October—when payrolls rose. We all know the problems: qualitative survey; responses can reflect sentiment. Treat with plenty of salt.