Rob Forth
@robiniv.bsky.social
The Musk is on a propaganda tour to make the locals on and around the land he grabbed in the wildlife refuge, feel like "Starbase citizens".
November 23, 2025 at 2:38 PM
The Musk is on a propaganda tour to make the locals on and around the land he grabbed in the wildlife refuge, feel like "Starbase citizens".
On days like this shops like Citadel must have fun selling a few million options to short term gamblers.
And on other days too, I guess.
Also - don't days like today somewhat disprove the gamma squeeze theory?
And on other days too, I guess.
Also - don't days like today somewhat disprove the gamma squeeze theory?
January 14, 2025 at 4:54 PM
On days like this shops like Citadel must have fun selling a few million options to short term gamblers.
And on other days too, I guess.
Also - don't days like today somewhat disprove the gamma squeeze theory?
And on other days too, I guess.
Also - don't days like today somewhat disprove the gamma squeeze theory?
In times of tragedy many people take comfort in the president being - oh wait, nvm
January 13, 2025 at 7:53 PM
In times of tragedy many people take comfort in the president being - oh wait, nvm
Talking about calendars, if you think $TSLA has a chance at pinning at 400 this week...
January 13, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Talking about calendars, if you think $TSLA has a chance at pinning at 400 this week...
For any traders on here, look at $MCY.
Diasaster tourists provide great term skew for a short term calendar imo.
Diasaster tourists provide great term skew for a short term calendar imo.
January 13, 2025 at 4:08 PM
For any traders on here, look at $MCY.
Diasaster tourists provide great term skew for a short term calendar imo.
Diasaster tourists provide great term skew for a short term calendar imo.
I'm short $ENVX, partly because I think $2B is an absurd valuation for a small business that has yet to show a functioning product, but also because I have this weird fetish for disheartening retail and small institutional holders 😂
January 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I'm short $ENVX, partly because I think $2B is an absurd valuation for a small business that has yet to show a functioning product, but also because I have this weird fetish for disheartening retail and small institutional holders 😂
5 days later and got the move I wanted so closed for 10% profit. May have left a lot on the table here but option logic, I think, is that you take profit on a move like this.
Will keep an eye on this overvalued frivolity to have another go asap.
Will keep an eye on this overvalued frivolity to have another go asap.
December 9, 2024 at 8:47 PM
5 days later and got the move I wanted so closed for 10% profit. May have left a lot on the table here but option logic, I think, is that you take profit on a move like this.
Will keep an eye on this overvalued frivolity to have another go asap.
Will keep an eye on this overvalued frivolity to have another go asap.
An exercise I do with companies, which I'm happy to explain further if anybody here would be interested, is to look at changes in working capital, adjusted for changes coming from financing - as a proxi for operational cash flow.
For SMCI it does show a jump in 24Q2 giving some merit to revenue jump
For SMCI it does show a jump in 24Q2 giving some merit to revenue jump
December 8, 2024 at 12:53 AM
An exercise I do with companies, which I'm happy to explain further if anybody here would be interested, is to look at changes in working capital, adjusted for changes coming from financing - as a proxi for operational cash flow.
For SMCI it does show a jump in 24Q2 giving some merit to revenue jump
For SMCI it does show a jump in 24Q2 giving some merit to revenue jump
That revenue suddenly jumped away from these related party costs was reason for me to suspect shenanigans in revenue recognition, or simply reselling NVDA chips without adding any value.
December 8, 2024 at 12:44 AM
That revenue suddenly jumped away from these related party costs was reason for me to suspect shenanigans in revenue recognition, or simply reselling NVDA chips without adding any value.
Spent some time with $SMCI financials today but didn't find anything new. Back in February I did a thread on the other platform about a weird aspect with their sudden jump in revenue in 24Q2. The weird aspect was that the related party purchases they have to disclose didn't show an equivalent jump.
December 8, 2024 at 12:39 AM
Spent some time with $SMCI financials today but didn't find anything new. Back in February I did a thread on the other platform about a weird aspect with their sudden jump in revenue in 24Q2. The weird aspect was that the related party purchases they have to disclose didn't show an equivalent jump.
It's fun to see how the $SMCI saga is following the same delisting trajectory as in 2017/2018. In 2017 first step was also non-compliance after failing to file 10K. Early December company got March 13, 2018 as deadline. Yesterday company got deadline set at February 25, 2025.
December 8, 2024 at 12:35 AM
It's fun to see how the $SMCI saga is following the same delisting trajectory as in 2017/2018. In 2017 first step was also non-compliance after failing to file 10K. Early December company got March 13, 2018 as deadline. Yesterday company got deadline set at February 25, 2025.
$SMCI just got permission of the Nasdaq to keep on stonking and the market couldn't be happier. Nasdaq kinda stuck here imo because when SMCI has to reveal its revenue recognition shenanigans, half of the market goes with it.
December 7, 2024 at 12:51 AM
$SMCI just got permission of the Nasdaq to keep on stonking and the market couldn't be happier. Nasdaq kinda stuck here imo because when SMCI has to reveal its revenue recognition shenanigans, half of the market goes with it.
Mr. Ponzi and the Twitter investoors got very lucky here, but to keep rollin', next thing will have to be even bigger
December 6, 2024 at 10:14 AM
Mr. Ponzi and the Twitter investoors got very lucky here, but to keep rollin', next thing will have to be even bigger
Okay, let's get some trading going on here.
$CAVA at lowest IV of year - and indeed not been moving recently - so tell me why not to bet on thing starting to move again?
$CAVA at lowest IV of year - and indeed not been moving recently - so tell me why not to bet on thing starting to move again?
December 4, 2024 at 7:54 PM
Okay, let's get some trading going on here.
$CAVA at lowest IV of year - and indeed not been moving recently - so tell me why not to bet on thing starting to move again?
$CAVA at lowest IV of year - and indeed not been moving recently - so tell me why not to bet on thing starting to move again?
Been reading and studying on having an edge in trading a lot lately and in the end it's really this, isn't it
December 1, 2024 at 12:39 AM
Been reading and studying on having an edge in trading a lot lately and in the end it's really this, isn't it
But then they add a paragraph about the Nasdaq letter where they specify the date (which they had not done in the press release): November 19. This is the day after they submitted their compliance plan.
November 24, 2024 at 4:46 PM
But then they add a paragraph about the Nasdaq letter where they specify the date (which they had not done in the press release): November 19. This is the day after they submitted their compliance plan.
Same day, another 8K - this time about amendments to their credit agreements. So far, so good (although a limitation of their credit is no small feat)
November 24, 2024 at 4:46 PM
Same day, another 8K - this time about amendments to their credit agreements. So far, so good (although a limitation of their credit is no small feat)
Two days later they do another press release repeating the submission of a compliance plan and casually adding that they received a notification letter because the 10K and 10Q were late. something like "you already knew that, didn't you?"
November 24, 2024 at 4:45 PM
Two days later they do another press release repeating the submission of a compliance plan and casually adding that they received a notification letter because the 10K and 10Q were late. something like "you already knew that, didn't you?"
On monday they also filed an 8K with the same message: appointment of a new auditor and the submission of a compliance plan
November 24, 2024 at 4:45 PM
On monday they also filed an 8K with the same message: appointment of a new auditor and the submission of a compliance plan
On Monday it sent out a press release announcing the appointment of a new auditor and the submission of a compliance plan to Nasdaq.
November 24, 2024 at 4:44 PM
On Monday it sent out a press release announcing the appointment of a new auditor and the submission of a compliance plan to Nasdaq.