Michael Dnes
@roadscholar.bsky.social
Head of transport policy at Stonehaven consulting. Ex-civil servant who used to play with roads, trains, e-scooters, parking apps and a lot of government plumbing. May have made your driving test harder, and threw some cones in your way at least once
Going faster, higher and further in greater comfort feels like a core mission for abundance.
So yes to the trains; but it’s time to start talking seriously about the other stuff too.
So yes to the trains; but it’s time to start talking seriously about the other stuff too.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Going faster, higher and further in greater comfort feels like a core mission for abundance.
So yes to the trains; but it’s time to start talking seriously about the other stuff too.
So yes to the trains; but it’s time to start talking seriously about the other stuff too.
These things can make tangible improvements to peoples’ lives, and can demonstrate the value of progress in real terms.
Just the way other improvements in transport used to do for hundreds of years.
Just the way other improvements in transport used to do for hundreds of years.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
These things can make tangible improvements to peoples’ lives, and can demonstrate the value of progress in real terms.
Just the way other improvements in transport used to do for hundreds of years.
Just the way other improvements in transport used to do for hundreds of years.
Autonomous vehicles could spare Americans from 93 billion hours of drudgery a year.
E-bikes, with the right infrastructure, could turn summertime commutes into joy rides.
Planes that can outrun Concorde would halve the size of oceans.
E-bikes, with the right infrastructure, could turn summertime commutes into joy rides.
Planes that can outrun Concorde would halve the size of oceans.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Autonomous vehicles could spare Americans from 93 billion hours of drudgery a year.
E-bikes, with the right infrastructure, could turn summertime commutes into joy rides.
Planes that can outrun Concorde would halve the size of oceans.
E-bikes, with the right infrastructure, could turn summertime commutes into joy rides.
Planes that can outrun Concorde would halve the size of oceans.
Because that compelling urban vision only applies to one part of the world. An important once; but if abundance is going to reach further, it should be able to offer far more.
Here in the UK, an electric car done right can cut fuel bills by 80-90%.
Here in the UK, an electric car done right can cut fuel bills by 80-90%.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Because that compelling urban vision only applies to one part of the world. An important once; but if abundance is going to reach further, it should be able to offer far more.
Here in the UK, an electric car done right can cut fuel bills by 80-90%.
Here in the UK, an electric car done right can cut fuel bills by 80-90%.
So yes, abundance does need trains, for sure.
BUT – the question isn’t why are we talking about trains. It’s why aren’t we talking about anything else?
This feels like one of those areas where @mattyglesias.bsky.social is inviting us to ‘finish the horse’
www.slowboring.com/p/the-half-d...
BUT – the question isn’t why are we talking about trains. It’s why aren’t we talking about anything else?
This feels like one of those areas where @mattyglesias.bsky.social is inviting us to ‘finish the horse’
www.slowboring.com/p/the-half-d...
The half-drawn horse of abundance
Plus: Weezer, Harvard dorms, social mobility, and the first female president
www.slowboring.com
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
So yes, abundance does need trains, for sure.
BUT – the question isn’t why are we talking about trains. It’s why aren’t we talking about anything else?
This feels like one of those areas where @mattyglesias.bsky.social is inviting us to ‘finish the horse’
www.slowboring.com/p/the-half-d...
BUT – the question isn’t why are we talking about trains. It’s why aren’t we talking about anything else?
This feels like one of those areas where @mattyglesias.bsky.social is inviting us to ‘finish the horse’
www.slowboring.com/p/the-half-d...
In his original tweet, Eli suggested that this job could be done better by autonomous buses and fast planes
FWIW, I think this will prove true (when I was the UK’s main road strategist, I had a plan for the buses). But until we prove it, there’s still a job for trains
FWIW, I think this will prove true (when I was the UK’s main road strategist, I had a plan for the buses). But until we prove it, there’s still a job for trains
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
In his original tweet, Eli suggested that this job could be done better by autonomous buses and fast planes
FWIW, I think this will prove true (when I was the UK’s main road strategist, I had a plan for the buses). But until we prove it, there’s still a job for trains
FWIW, I think this will prove true (when I was the UK’s main road strategist, I had a plan for the buses). But until we prove it, there’s still a job for trains
And if you’re stuck using trains, you also need to understand that trains are hard to build.
So if you believe in cities that depend on them, you’re going to need to give a disproportionate amount of attention to making them run.
So if you believe in cities that depend on them, you’re going to need to give a disproportionate amount of attention to making them run.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
And if you’re stuck using trains, you also need to understand that trains are hard to build.
So if you believe in cities that depend on them, you’re going to need to give a disproportionate amount of attention to making them run.
So if you believe in cities that depend on them, you’re going to need to give a disproportionate amount of attention to making them run.
So that leaves us with the railway. Which, for all its limitations, is a powerful people mover. 60 years on, the same area of London is served by Crossrail, which tied together two existing railways to provide it with a 32-train-per-hour rail superhighway.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
So that leaves us with the railway. Which, for all its limitations, is a powerful people mover. 60 years on, the same area of London is served by Crossrail, which tied together two existing railways to provide it with a 32-train-per-hour rail superhighway.
But they really did try.
- Add six 5-lane motorways
- Convert the whole ground level to a hexagonal road network
- Move the humans and their buildings 20ft in the air
- Dig two floors of parking underneath with 60,000 spaces
It still wasn’t enough
- Add six 5-lane motorways
- Convert the whole ground level to a hexagonal road network
- Move the humans and their buildings 20ft in the air
- Dig two floors of parking underneath with 60,000 spaces
It still wasn’t enough
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
But they really did try.
- Add six 5-lane motorways
- Convert the whole ground level to a hexagonal road network
- Move the humans and their buildings 20ft in the air
- Dig two floors of parking underneath with 60,000 spaces
It still wasn’t enough
- Add six 5-lane motorways
- Convert the whole ground level to a hexagonal road network
- Move the humans and their buildings 20ft in the air
- Dig two floors of parking underneath with 60,000 spaces
It still wasn’t enough
They looked at an area of central London called Fitzrovia, and tried to work out how it would need to change to deal with the expected traffic. A rise from 3,000 vehicles/hr to 40,000.
It was immediately clear that this was impossible.
It was immediately clear that this was impossible.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
They looked at an area of central London called Fitzrovia, and tried to work out how it would need to change to deal with the expected traffic. A rise from 3,000 vehicles/hr to 40,000.
It was immediately clear that this was impossible.
It was immediately clear that this was impossible.
To explain why, I need the help of the best transport report ever written – the 1963 Traffic in Towns report.
Written when British civil servants were just realising that the future was universal car ownership, it’s an unmatched examination of just what that was going to mean.
Written when British civil servants were just realising that the future was universal car ownership, it’s an unmatched examination of just what that was going to mean.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
To explain why, I need the help of the best transport report ever written – the 1963 Traffic in Towns report.
Written when British civil servants were just realising that the future was universal car ownership, it’s an unmatched examination of just what that was going to mean.
Written when British civil servants were just realising that the future was universal car ownership, it’s an unmatched examination of just what that was going to mean.
Well, no. There’s a really good reason abundance likes trains. But it has little to do with transport, and everything to do with cities
Abundance really, really loves cities. And in cities, transport gets weird
Abundance really, really loves cities. And in cities, transport gets weird
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Well, no. There’s a really good reason abundance likes trains. But it has little to do with transport, and everything to do with cities
Abundance really, really loves cities. And in cities, transport gets weird
Abundance really, really loves cities. And in cities, transport gets weird
For you, this may not need explaining. But trains are niche. They were mostly built to enable journeys we can now do in better ways. They need their own network of tracks, so they don’t scale easily. They aren’t cheap.
Is this just an unhealthy obsession let loose?
Is this just an unhealthy obsession let loose?
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
For you, this may not need explaining. But trains are niche. They were mostly built to enable journeys we can now do in better ways. They need their own network of tracks, so they don’t scale easily. They aren’t cheap.
Is this just an unhealthy obsession let loose?
Is this just an unhealthy obsession let loose?
This is definitely a thing. The #1 transport story of abundance is the failure of Californian high speed rail. The top asks are usually cheap metro systems, light rail networks and high speed railways.
The subtext is good trains = civilisation
The subtext is good trains = civilisation
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
This is definitely a thing. The #1 transport story of abundance is the failure of Californian high speed rail. The top asks are usually cheap metro systems, light rail networks and high speed railways.
The subtext is good trains = civilisation
The subtext is good trains = civilisation
All that would seem to point to 1. leveraging new tech like modern batteries, autonomous control, drone flight etc and 2. rationalising rulebooks – so billions of people save time and money.
So why is so much abundance transport chat about trains?
So why is so much abundance transport chat about trains?
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
All that would seem to point to 1. leveraging new tech like modern batteries, autonomous control, drone flight etc and 2. rationalising rulebooks – so billions of people save time and money.
So why is so much abundance transport chat about trains?
So why is so much abundance transport chat about trains?
Second: transport is the area where degrowth – the arch-enemy of abundance – holds the most power.
We think it normal to e.g. limit road traffic to deliver environmental goals. There are good reasons for that, but they’re the opposite of the abundance mindset.
We think it normal to e.g. limit road traffic to deliver environmental goals. There are good reasons for that, but they’re the opposite of the abundance mindset.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Second: transport is the area where degrowth – the arch-enemy of abundance – holds the most power.
We think it normal to e.g. limit road traffic to deliver environmental goals. There are good reasons for that, but they’re the opposite of the abundance mindset.
We think it normal to e.g. limit road traffic to deliver environmental goals. There are good reasons for that, but they’re the opposite of the abundance mindset.
Then came the omnibus, the railway, the tram, the automobile. 1m became normal. 10m stopped being incredible.
Not only that, cities and nations did things they never thought of before – national newspapers; sports leagues, etc.
A perfect demonstration of the power of abundance.
Not only that, cities and nations did things they never thought of before – national newspapers; sports leagues, etc.
A perfect demonstration of the power of abundance.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Then came the omnibus, the railway, the tram, the automobile. 1m became normal. 10m stopped being incredible.
Not only that, cities and nations did things they never thought of before – national newspapers; sports leagues, etc.
A perfect demonstration of the power of abundance.
Not only that, cities and nations did things they never thought of before – national newspapers; sports leagues, etc.
A perfect demonstration of the power of abundance.
You should expect abundance to care about transport.
First, abundant transport transformed what cities could do: before c.1800 city size was capped at 1m people, and the distances people could walk in c. 1 hour.
First, abundant transport transformed what cities could do: before c.1800 city size was capped at 1m people, and the distances people could walk in c. 1 hour.
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
You should expect abundance to care about transport.
First, abundant transport transformed what cities could do: before c.1800 city size was capped at 1m people, and the distances people could walk in c. 1 hour.
First, abundant transport transformed what cities could do: before c.1800 city size was capped at 1m people, and the distances people could walk in c. 1 hour.
This is definitely an essay question – you can read a fuller answer over on the s*st*k
michaeldnes1.substack.com/p/the-abunda...
But here’s the summary
michaeldnes1.substack.com/p/the-abunda...
But here’s the summary
September 14, 2025 at 8:36 AM
This is definitely an essay question – you can read a fuller answer over on the s*st*k
michaeldnes1.substack.com/p/the-abunda...
But here’s the summary
michaeldnes1.substack.com/p/the-abunda...
But here’s the summary
Whatever the reason, we go into the holidays no clearer than before; possibly just as confused inside of government as outside.
The one thing we can say for sure is that government is planning _something_ on the western leg. It’s just finding it hard to tell us what…
The one thing we can say for sure is that government is planning _something_ on the western leg. It’s just finding it hard to tell us what…
July 27, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Whatever the reason, we go into the holidays no clearer than before; possibly just as confused inside of government as outside.
The one thing we can say for sure is that government is planning _something_ on the western leg. It’s just finding it hard to tell us what…
The one thing we can say for sure is that government is planning _something_ on the western leg. It’s just finding it hard to tell us what…
(There’s a third, even gloomier possibility over on the substack, if you fancy it)
July 27, 2025 at 2:44 PM
(There’s a third, even gloomier possibility over on the substack, if you fancy it)
If so, you’ll be gloomy at how the language has gone from ‘ambitions in the North’ to the narrower ‘northern powerhouse rail’.
That may be over-reading things, though.
That may be over-reading things, though.
July 27, 2025 at 2:44 PM
If so, you’ll be gloomy at how the language has gone from ‘ambitions in the North’ to the narrower ‘northern powerhouse rail’.
That may be over-reading things, though.
That may be over-reading things, though.
That doesn’t mean they’re keeping all of it.
So it might be that at the time of the SR everyone had agreed they’d retain _something_, but had yet to agree what it was.
So it might be that at the time of the SR everyone had agreed they’d retain _something_, but had yet to agree what it was.
July 27, 2025 at 2:44 PM
That doesn’t mean they’re keeping all of it.
So it might be that at the time of the SR everyone had agreed they’d retain _something_, but had yet to agree what it was.
So it might be that at the time of the SR everyone had agreed they’d retain _something_, but had yet to agree what it was.