Ross Mudie
@rmudie96.bsky.social
Head of Research Analysis, @iconeighbours.bsky.social. Formerly Senior Research Analyst at the Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP), research @ United Nations University-MERIT, policy @ local government.
Something I hadn't realised but @samfr.bsky.social has on his post-Budget Substack.
The Chancellor/Treasury used the same tricks (delaying tax rises/spending cuts) to game the fiscal rules as we we saw under the Tories, but come the next Spending Review - in 2027 - that road will run out.
The Chancellor/Treasury used the same tricks (delaying tax rises/spending cuts) to game the fiscal rules as we we saw under the Tories, but come the next Spending Review - in 2027 - that road will run out.
November 27, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Something I hadn't realised but @samfr.bsky.social has on his post-Budget Substack.
The Chancellor/Treasury used the same tricks (delaying tax rises/spending cuts) to game the fiscal rules as we we saw under the Tories, but come the next Spending Review - in 2027 - that road will run out.
The Chancellor/Treasury used the same tricks (delaying tax rises/spending cuts) to game the fiscal rules as we we saw under the Tories, but come the next Spending Review - in 2027 - that road will run out.
Can we not do policy change anymore? Can we not decide if something is good or bad and then make a call? Or are we just stuck on a forever pilot autopilot?
November 26, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Can we not do policy change anymore? Can we not decide if something is good or bad and then make a call? Or are we just stuck on a forever pilot autopilot?
There has to be a better word than this to describe the multiple little tax rises we should see at the Budget next week. There are more than enough journalists to come up with something better. Still a week to go lads
November 19, 2025 at 7:24 AM
There has to be a better word than this to describe the multiple little tax rises we should see at the Budget next week. There are more than enough journalists to come up with something better. Still a week to go lads
Remarkable how invested US households are, in the most literal sense of the word. Stocks make up several multiples more of US household wealth than here in the UK.
Difficult to see how any future global market downturn wouldn't trigger, via Trump, a big economic populist reaction here.
Difficult to see how any future global market downturn wouldn't trigger, via Trump, a big economic populist reaction here.
November 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Remarkable how invested US households are, in the most literal sense of the word. Stocks make up several multiples more of US household wealth than here in the UK.
Difficult to see how any future global market downturn wouldn't trigger, via Trump, a big economic populist reaction here.
Difficult to see how any future global market downturn wouldn't trigger, via Trump, a big economic populist reaction here.
I am worried by this suggestion that the ONS will review and scale down its local and regional data outputs.
It’s already hard enough to understand what’s happening across the country as it is, and to design the right policies in response.
Any further reduction would be a disaster.
It’s already hard enough to understand what’s happening across the country as it is, and to design the right policies in response.
Any further reduction would be a disaster.
November 12, 2025 at 1:27 PM
I am worried by this suggestion that the ONS will review and scale down its local and regional data outputs.
It’s already hard enough to understand what’s happening across the country as it is, and to design the right policies in response.
Any further reduction would be a disaster.
It’s already hard enough to understand what’s happening across the country as it is, and to design the right policies in response.
Any further reduction would be a disaster.
The annual Homeless Monitor by Crisis: all forms of homelessness are on the up, and morale among those working in the sector is rock bottom.
If you want public services to be preventative that requires some actual action, not just words and unfunded duties (which the Homelessness Reduction Act is)
If you want public services to be preventative that requires some actual action, not just words and unfunded duties (which the Homelessness Reduction Act is)
November 11, 2025 at 10:57 AM
The annual Homeless Monitor by Crisis: all forms of homelessness are on the up, and morale among those working in the sector is rock bottom.
If you want public services to be preventative that requires some actual action, not just words and unfunded duties (which the Homelessness Reduction Act is)
If you want public services to be preventative that requires some actual action, not just words and unfunded duties (which the Homelessness Reduction Act is)
Crazy situation that we've found ourselves in that it is the poorest places now paying the highest relative property taxes. Having spent years kicking the can on council tax reform we have made matters far worse than ever necessary.
November 10, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Crazy situation that we've found ourselves in that it is the poorest places now paying the highest relative property taxes. Having spent years kicking the can on council tax reform we have made matters far worse than ever necessary.
This is a v good piece.
I would add as well that the general lack of interest in ideas that many centre-ground governments (including ours) have, has enabled ineffective, risk-averse managerialism to become the default position for most of our grand policy challenges.
Sleepwalking into decline.
I would add as well that the general lack of interest in ideas that many centre-ground governments (including ours) have, has enabled ineffective, risk-averse managerialism to become the default position for most of our grand policy challenges.
Sleepwalking into decline.
November 2, 2025 at 2:45 PM
This is a v good piece.
I would add as well that the general lack of interest in ideas that many centre-ground governments (including ours) have, has enabled ineffective, risk-averse managerialism to become the default position for most of our grand policy challenges.
Sleepwalking into decline.
I would add as well that the general lack of interest in ideas that many centre-ground governments (including ours) have, has enabled ineffective, risk-averse managerialism to become the default position for most of our grand policy challenges.
Sleepwalking into decline.
Several reasons why the most severe deprivation is sticky - most of todays most deprived places have not seen relative improvement for decades.
But few things have done more to make matters worse than completely obliterating council funding in the most deprived places, as we did in the 2010s
But few things have done more to make matters worse than completely obliterating council funding in the most deprived places, as we did in the 2010s
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Several reasons why the most severe deprivation is sticky - most of todays most deprived places have not seen relative improvement for decades.
But few things have done more to make matters worse than completely obliterating council funding in the most deprived places, as we did in the 2010s
But few things have done more to make matters worse than completely obliterating council funding in the most deprived places, as we did in the 2010s
This is why the £5bn Pride in Place programme is without doubt one of the most important of the Starmer government.
Building social infrastructrure in these neighbourhoods is the crucial step one towards long-term renewal. Our analysis of Big Local proved it - quick, genuine progress that saves £!
Building social infrastructrure in these neighbourhoods is the crucial step one towards long-term renewal. Our analysis of Big Local proved it - quick, genuine progress that saves £!
October 31, 2025 at 10:04 AM
This is why the £5bn Pride in Place programme is without doubt one of the most important of the Starmer government.
Building social infrastructrure in these neighbourhoods is the crucial step one towards long-term renewal. Our analysis of Big Local proved it - quick, genuine progress that saves £!
Building social infrastructrure in these neighbourhoods is the crucial step one towards long-term renewal. Our analysis of Big Local proved it - quick, genuine progress that saves £!
The IMD 2025 also suggests there's been a deepening of deprivation in coastal areas since 2019.
The story of our recent history - since the 2000s many coastal areas in the South East struggled to make progress, while real steps forward were taken across the wider region
The story of our recent history - since the 2000s many coastal areas in the South East struggled to make progress, while real steps forward were taken across the wider region
October 31, 2025 at 10:00 AM
The IMD 2025 also suggests there's been a deepening of deprivation in coastal areas since 2019.
The story of our recent history - since the 2000s many coastal areas in the South East struggled to make progress, while real steps forward were taken across the wider region
The story of our recent history - since the 2000s many coastal areas in the South East struggled to make progress, while real steps forward were taken across the wider region
It is also true that in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods high crime is ridiculously stricky, and since the early 2010s the crime gap has actually increased...
October 31, 2025 at 9:57 AM
It is also true that in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods high crime is ridiculously stricky, and since the early 2010s the crime gap has actually increased...
Sad but no surprise that yesterdays new deprivation data revealed that most deprived neighbourhoods today have barely changed since 2019.
But this isn't new news
As we showed earlier this year, on health and the economy the most deprived today were the most deprived at the turn of the millenium
But this isn't new news
As we showed earlier this year, on health and the economy the most deprived today were the most deprived at the turn of the millenium
October 31, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Sad but no surprise that yesterdays new deprivation data revealed that most deprived neighbourhoods today have barely changed since 2019.
But this isn't new news
As we showed earlier this year, on health and the economy the most deprived today were the most deprived at the turn of the millenium
But this isn't new news
As we showed earlier this year, on health and the economy the most deprived today were the most deprived at the turn of the millenium
Delighted to finally see this out in the world.
£5bn of investment into the hands of the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods, that communities will have agency over to deliver change for themselves.
Huge for @iconeighbours.bsky.social who have been invaluable in delivering this.
£5bn of investment into the hands of the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods, that communities will have agency over to deliver change for themselves.
Huge for @iconeighbours.bsky.social who have been invaluable in delivering this.
September 26, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Delighted to finally see this out in the world.
£5bn of investment into the hands of the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods, that communities will have agency over to deliver change for themselves.
Huge for @iconeighbours.bsky.social who have been invaluable in delivering this.
£5bn of investment into the hands of the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods, that communities will have agency over to deliver change for themselves.
Huge for @iconeighbours.bsky.social who have been invaluable in delivering this.
Incredibly stark, concerning chart in The Times this morning showing the vast urban-rural divides in child vaccination rates
August 29, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Incredibly stark, concerning chart in The Times this morning showing the vast urban-rural divides in child vaccination rates
Work from home is likely helping reduce the motherhood penalty, a new NBER paper finds. And the potential impact seems strongest in careers that are highly demanding and were traditionally inflexible
Very positive results for something that is more or less free
Very positive results for something that is more or less free
August 18, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Work from home is likely helping reduce the motherhood penalty, a new NBER paper finds. And the potential impact seems strongest in careers that are highly demanding and were traditionally inflexible
Very positive results for something that is more or less free
Very positive results for something that is more or less free
Interesting new study from the US, suggesting that the quality of public parks is a strong determinant of how much mixing goes on across different income groups (26% more!), volunteering, and civic organisation rates
Things that are *really* key to social mobility and growth!
Things that are *really* key to social mobility and growth!
August 5, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Interesting new study from the US, suggesting that the quality of public parks is a strong determinant of how much mixing goes on across different income groups (26% more!), volunteering, and civic organisation rates
Things that are *really* key to social mobility and growth!
Things that are *really* key to social mobility and growth!
New Homes England paper on housing affordability/productivity:
Suggests 5% more supply in the South East = 10% lower costs, productivity up 3.5%
Other evidence is mixed - though suggests expansion of industrial clusters without more supply may limit growth + increase inequality
Suggests 5% more supply in the South East = 10% lower costs, productivity up 3.5%
Other evidence is mixed - though suggests expansion of industrial clusters without more supply may limit growth + increase inequality
July 28, 2025 at 2:10 PM
New Homes England paper on housing affordability/productivity:
Suggests 5% more supply in the South East = 10% lower costs, productivity up 3.5%
Other evidence is mixed - though suggests expansion of industrial clusters without more supply may limit growth + increase inequality
Suggests 5% more supply in the South East = 10% lower costs, productivity up 3.5%
Other evidence is mixed - though suggests expansion of industrial clusters without more supply may limit growth + increase inequality
That new report feeling….
Tomorrow! Excited
Tomorrow! Excited
June 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
That new report feeling….
Tomorrow! Excited
Tomorrow! Excited
Niche matter of public interest
The Green Book review seems set to allow, I think for the first time(?), the potential impacts of an investment on social capital to form part of a business case
I would expect this to enable to *very* different investments. Huge, huge win.
The Green Book review seems set to allow, I think for the first time(?), the potential impacts of an investment on social capital to form part of a business case
I would expect this to enable to *very* different investments. Huge, huge win.
June 11, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Niche matter of public interest
The Green Book review seems set to allow, I think for the first time(?), the potential impacts of an investment on social capital to form part of a business case
I would expect this to enable to *very* different investments. Huge, huge win.
The Green Book review seems set to allow, I think for the first time(?), the potential impacts of an investment on social capital to form part of a business case
I would expect this to enable to *very* different investments. Huge, huge win.
Over a quarter (26%) of people live with a long-term limiting illness - compared to just over 1 in 10 (11%) nationally
Nearly 3.5x as many people (!) in Mission critical neighbourhoods report living in bad/very bad health than average
Over 1 in 6 people.
Nearly 3.5x as many people (!) in Mission critical neighbourhoods report living in bad/very bad health than average
Over 1 in 6 people.
May 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Over a quarter (26%) of people live with a long-term limiting illness - compared to just over 1 in 10 (11%) nationally
Nearly 3.5x as many people (!) in Mission critical neighbourhoods report living in bad/very bad health than average
Over 1 in 6 people.
Nearly 3.5x as many people (!) in Mission critical neighbourhoods report living in bad/very bad health than average
Over 1 in 6 people.
2: The economic contribution of these neighbourhoods is significantly lower than their potential
We estimate productivity levels to be around 40%(!) lower than average, costing £4bn a year
A whole third of adults have no qualifications, around double the national average...
We estimate productivity levels to be around 40%(!) lower than average, costing £4bn a year
A whole third of adults have no qualifications, around double the national average...
May 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
2: The economic contribution of these neighbourhoods is significantly lower than their potential
We estimate productivity levels to be around 40%(!) lower than average, costing £4bn a year
A whole third of adults have no qualifications, around double the national average...
We estimate productivity levels to be around 40%(!) lower than average, costing £4bn a year
A whole third of adults have no qualifications, around double the national average...
By the way - this is in part of a more national trend we find, that areas that are furthest away from delivering/seeing progress on the government's missions (we have our own measure, the Hyper-Local Need Measure)....
*yes, that means cuts will likely hit these places harder..
*yes, that means cuts will likely hit these places harder..
May 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
By the way - this is in part of a more national trend we find, that areas that are furthest away from delivering/seeing progress on the government's missions (we have our own measure, the Hyper-Local Need Measure)....
*yes, that means cuts will likely hit these places harder..
*yes, that means cuts will likely hit these places harder..
We estimate that additional payments to mission critical neighbourhoods, based on their unique circumstances, are worth around ~£3.2bn a year
A symptom of many things - unacceptably high levels of poverty, economic isolation, and sorting of high-need people into these places
A symptom of many things - unacceptably high levels of poverty, economic isolation, and sorting of high-need people into these places
May 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
We estimate that additional payments to mission critical neighbourhoods, based on their unique circumstances, are worth around ~£3.2bn a year
A symptom of many things - unacceptably high levels of poverty, economic isolation, and sorting of high-need people into these places
A symptom of many things - unacceptably high levels of poverty, economic isolation, and sorting of high-need people into these places