Even during the period of volatility and uncertainty, it remains pretty clear that Al will be a growth anchor, and expected payoffs could be quite large. #GDPInsights #TechSpending #EconomicOutlook #InnovationEconomy #MarketInsights

The same is true in markets. The points that matter today include: moderating inflation, resilient (if uneven) growth, and historically attractive yields. #SmartAllocations #WealthPrinciples #ValueOverVolume #CapitalDiscipline

Read more in our latest insight: www.blackrock.com/us/financial...

We can see this stress in recent spending data, as low-income consumption is negative YoY, compared to high income consumption running at nearly +5% YoY. Further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are not just warranted—they are essential to restoring balance and broad-based economic resilience.

The current high-rate environment continues to disproportionately burden lower-income earners while simultaneously paralyzing the housing market. #FiscalPolicy #EconomicAnalysis #BehindTheNumbers #Trends2025 #RealEconomy

So, while we continue to expect that the aggregate US growth trajectory will remain strong, buoyed by high-end consumers and investment, we also believe that large parts of the population and large sectors in the economy are struggling due to restrictive rates today. #DataInsights #FinancialNews

However, we've pointed out that the aggregate consumption figures offer limited insight into the financial reality of most American households. A closer look reveals that the top 10% of earners spend more than the bottom 40% combined. #GrowthStory #NumbersDontLie #MarketWatch

Particularly, private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which chair Powell stated was a "narrower but better signal for the future" was revised up by almost a full percent. #Economy #EconomicGrowth #GDPRevision #ConsumptionTrends #MacroEconomics

As we have said previously, this dynamic underscores how elevated rates disproportionately affect lower-income households, many of whom have been sidelined from homeownership in the post-COVID era. #CIOChartoftheWeek #FedMeeting #InterestRates #HousingMarket #HousingAffordability

Today, would-be home buyers face housing affordability at all-time lows where the qualifying income needed for first-time home buyers has more than doubled in 5 years! #FirstTimeHomeBuyers #EconomicPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #PostCovidEconomy #ConsumerImpact

…But we've taken a different view on the current environment. In our thinking, fixed income investors can harness markets around the world today to own diversified, quality, yielding portfolios in a way that has not been possible in recent years.

Still, while the back end of the curve has been less reliable, and at times more erratic, at this point some exposure to the longer end makes sense as rates decline. The many, and at times confusing, crosscurrents faced today by investors may discourage some,

In this context, we continue to prefer owning more of our duration in the front-to-belly of the yield curve, as correlations and fixed income's hedge effectiveness have improved at the margins here.

This places the Fed and forward policy in a very different place than what we're seen in recent years and puts the possibility of a 50 basis point policy rate cut firmly on the table later this month.

The productivity surge that we think may be ahead of us ultimately represents a downside risk to labor markets, an upside influence on growth, and a downside pressure on inflation.

As a result, we believe that the Federal Reserve's forward focus (maybe for the next few years) is likely to be achieving maximum employment - even if the economy does well in aggregate.

Thus far, this dynamic hasn't involved mass layoffs to any significant extent, but the recent moderation in the labor market (and substantial anticipated downward revisions to prior data) do suggest that employment faces significant headwinds to growth and vulnerabilities in the years ahead.