Rich Prisinzano
@richpriz.bsky.social
Tax Policy at Yale, music, and sports
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
July 28, 2025 at 3:11 PM
We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.
New analysis out from @budgetlab.bsky.social. A look at the Senate Finance version of the reconciliation bill.
We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...
We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...
The Financial Cost of the Senate Budget Bill’s Tax Provisions
budgetlab.yale.edu
June 26, 2025 at 7:26 PM
New analysis out from @budgetlab.bsky.social. A look at the Senate Finance version of the reconciliation bill.
We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...
We consider the effects as written and all provisions made permanent. We also consider the recent Byrd Rule issues with some provisions. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fin...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect?
The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff.
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The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff.
1/7
May 23, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect?
The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff.
1/7
The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff.
1/7
Hey gang- we at @budgetlab.bsky.social did some work on the Ways & Means text this week:
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...
Budgetary Effects of the May 2025 Tax Bill (Preliminary)
budgetlab.yale.edu
May 16, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Hey gang- we at @budgetlab.bsky.social did some work on the Ways & Means text this week:
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/
April 15, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/
International Tax is complicated. There are a lot of moving parts. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social did our best to explain the current state of international taxation and how revenue to the US would
change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…
change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…
Search
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…
April 7, 2025 at 5:18 PM
International Tax is complicated. There are a lot of moving parts. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social did our best to explain the current state of international taxation and how revenue to the US would
change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…
change under possible Pillar 2/BEPS project scenarios here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/inter…
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
On 4/9, join us for a conversation about DOGE & the administrative state, featuring former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Tax Law Center experts including former OMB Director Shalanda Young and professors @lilybatch.bsky.social & @davidkamin.bsky.social
taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...
taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...
NYU Law Forum | The DOGE Era: Impoundment, Data Privacy, and the Administrative State
Join the NYU Law Forum for a conversation about DOGE and the administrative state, including impoundment and data privacy issues. The conversation will feature Former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally A...
taxlawcenter.org
April 4, 2025 at 5:20 PM
On 4/9, join us for a conversation about DOGE & the administrative state, featuring former Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Tax Law Center experts including former OMB Director Shalanda Young and professors @lilybatch.bsky.social & @davidkamin.bsky.social
taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...
taxlawcenter.org/events/nyu-l...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
New @budgetlab.bsky.social report today featured in @politico.com Weekly Tax. “Policy changes aimed at limiting buy-borrow-die are a natural place for reform in the current tax code” www.politico.com/newsletters/...
What can technology replace?
The Trump administration — and Elon Musk’s DOGE — seems quite seriously to believe that increased and improved technology and automation can lead to a significantly slimmer workforce at the IRS.
www.politico.com
March 17, 2025 at 4:15 PM
New @budgetlab.bsky.social report today featured in @politico.com Weekly Tax. “Policy changes aimed at limiting buy-borrow-die are a natural place for reform in the current tax code” www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
Important new work from my @budgetlab.bsky.social colleagues Harris Eppsteiner & John Ricco on the House budget resolution. Neutral illustrative policies consistent w/ committee deficit targets suggest the proposed tax + spending cuts are regressive: they benefit the top & hurt the bottom.
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March 19, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Important new work from my @budgetlab.bsky.social colleagues Harris Eppsteiner & John Ricco on the House budget resolution. Neutral illustrative policies consistent w/ committee deficit targets suggest the proposed tax + spending cuts are regressive: they benefit the top & hurt the bottom.
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Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
As long time NPB follower, I found this on target and informative.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/622...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/622...
MLB is trying to expand in Japan. Can Japan's NPB grow in America?
www.nytimes.com
March 21, 2025 at 4:56 PM
As long time NPB follower, I found this on target and informative.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/622...
www.nytimes.com/athletic/622...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
March 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
My group at @budgetlab.bsky.social has some good work out this morning on IRS funding and the forgone revenue of the IRS cuts the workforce by 50K workers: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rev...
The Revenue and Distributional Effects of IRS Funding
budgetlab.yale.edu
March 13, 2025 at 12:30 PM
My group at @budgetlab.bsky.social has some good work out this morning on IRS funding and the forgone revenue of the IRS cuts the workforce by 50K workers: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/rev...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
In 2020, Kim Ng made history by becoming the first woman to be hired as a MLB general manager. Miami's record improved every year under Ng, culminating with a 2023 season which saw the Marlins win their most games since 2009. #WomensHistoryMonth
March 11, 2025 at 6:22 PM
In 2020, Kim Ng made history by becoming the first woman to be hired as a MLB general manager. Miami's record improved every year under Ng, culminating with a 2023 season which saw the Marlins win their most games since 2009. #WomensHistoryMonth
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
This week, the Trump Admin is planning to implement 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico as well as an add'l 10% tariff on China. This would come on top of the 10% China tariff already put in place on Feb 1.
@budgetlab.bsky.social published an analysis today of all of these tariffs together in tandem
1/8
@budgetlab.bsky.social published an analysis today of all of these tariffs together in tandem
1/8
March 3, 2025 at 4:46 PM
This week, the Trump Admin is planning to implement 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico as well as an add'l 10% tariff on China. This would come on top of the 10% China tariff already put in place on Feb 1.
@budgetlab.bsky.social published an analysis today of all of these tariffs together in tandem
1/8
@budgetlab.bsky.social published an analysis today of all of these tariffs together in tandem
1/8
Here’s some cool analysis my colleagues did on tariffs:
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis...
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis...
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social
The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of Illustrative “Reciprocal” US Tariffs
budgetlab.yale.edu
February 19, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Here’s some cool analysis my colleagues did on tariffs:
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis...
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis...
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
Prominent Cryptocurrency Investor Faces Senate Tax Inquiry
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/t...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/t...
Prominent Cryptocurrency Investor Faces Senate Tax Inquiry (Gift Article)
The Finance Committee’s top Democrat sent a letter last month to Dan Morehead, the founder of Pantera Capital, about the investigation.
www.nytimes.com
February 15, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Prominent Cryptocurrency Investor Faces Senate Tax Inquiry
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/t...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/t...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
My students have used this data in their senior research papers to show there is a gender-wage gap across a host of college majors.
Reminder that ipums.org has all the acs, census, CPS, NHIS, MEPS, and so much more. Bonus that it’s cleaned and harmonized in ways that make these data really easy to use in practice.
February 8, 2025 at 4:38 PM
My students have used this data in their senior research papers to show there is a gender-wage gap across a host of college majors.
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
BTW, long before Elon Musk moved to DC, the US Treasury was using machine ;earning and AI to ferret out fraud. Saved $4 billion in FY2024 (October 2024 Treasury release.) home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
February 4, 2025 at 8:03 PM
BTW, long before Elon Musk moved to DC, the US Treasury was using machine ;earning and AI to ferret out fraud. Saved $4 billion in FY2024 (October 2024 Treasury release.) home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
Ron Johnson: "Tariffs are a tax. When you tax something, you get less of it, so we'll probably get fewer imports, but then with retaliation, fewer experts. Smoot-Hawley was not particularly successful and helped sparked the Depression, so I share the markets' concern."
February 3, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Ron Johnson: "Tariffs are a tax. When you tax something, you get less of it, so we'll probably get fewer imports, but then with retaliation, fewer experts. Smoot-Hawley was not particularly successful and helped sparked the Depression, so I share the markets' concern."
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
A 25 Percent Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports Would Reduce Consumers’ Average After-Tax Income by 1 Percent
taxpolicycenter.org
January 31, 2025 at 9:07 PM
The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
For no reason whatsoever, reupping Budget Lab’s research on how political risk is economic risk - and how markets haven’t been pricing in the rise in political risks budgetlab.yale.edu/news/240502/... @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium
budgetlab.yale.edu
February 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
For no reason whatsoever, reupping Budget Lab’s research on how political risk is economic risk - and how markets haven’t been pricing in the rise in political risks budgetlab.yale.edu/news/240502/... @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
January 23, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Hey gang- I’ve got an op-ed in The Hill today about depreciation as a budget gimmick: thehill.com/opinion/fina...
The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…
The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…
January 22, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Hey gang- I’ve got an op-ed in The Hill today about depreciation as a budget gimmick: thehill.com/opinion/fina...
The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…
The analysis from @The_Budget_Lab is here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/budge…
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
@budgetlab.bsky.social is now on Bluesky! This new nonpartisan center will be a critical part of the federal economic policy ecosystem going forward. I'm a bit biased - I was briefly involved as an RA before it had a name - but I think they're a must-follow for anyone interested in the US economy.
January 15, 2025 at 3:54 PM
@budgetlab.bsky.social is now on Bluesky! This new nonpartisan center will be a critical part of the federal economic policy ecosystem going forward. I'm a bit biased - I was briefly involved as an RA before it had a name - but I think they're a must-follow for anyone interested in the US economy.
Reposted by Rich Prisinzano
In light of recent NIPA revisions, in today's projections CBO upgraded real potential GDP by 0.8% in 2025 Q1 and by 1.5% in 2034 Q4 versus its June 2024 projections.
January 17, 2025 at 7:17 PM
In light of recent NIPA revisions, in today's projections CBO upgraded real potential GDP by 0.8% in 2025 Q1 and by 1.5% in 2034 Q4 versus its June 2024 projections.