Rich Posson
@richposson.bsky.social
I have a podcast "the Critical Point" on markets and the economy, plus society, climate. I use a business cycle model that follows and time the largest repetitive move per decade to intra-year. Stock market rallies +400% per decade criticalpointpod.com
Sour job creation under Trump.Trump complained.PMIs of manufacturing show US nosedive signaling slowing economy. On 4 state trip I found Jun a horrible month for at least tourist business.Picking up slightly in late Jul.Store owners had worried look. Global PMI softer. All on Trump now.Tariffs bite.
August 1, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Sour job creation under Trump.Trump complained.PMIs of manufacturing show US nosedive signaling slowing economy. On 4 state trip I found Jun a horrible month for at least tourist business.Picking up slightly in late Jul.Store owners had worried look. Global PMI softer. All on Trump now.Tariffs bite.
urope Stock Markets
#1= How investors conduct semi-annual business. Most important component of long-term bull and bear markets.
#2= Quarterly business.
#3= Monthly trading.
Some of Europe equities markets are in a bull market into 2026-27.
Economic growth.
criticalpointpod.com
#1= How investors conduct semi-annual business. Most important component of long-term bull and bear markets.
#2= Quarterly business.
#3= Monthly trading.
Some of Europe equities markets are in a bull market into 2026-27.
Economic growth.
criticalpointpod.com
June 24, 2025 at 4:34 PM
urope Stock Markets
#1= How investors conduct semi-annual business. Most important component of long-term bull and bear markets.
#2= Quarterly business.
#3= Monthly trading.
Some of Europe equities markets are in a bull market into 2026-27.
Economic growth.
criticalpointpod.com
#1= How investors conduct semi-annual business. Most important component of long-term bull and bear markets.
#2= Quarterly business.
#3= Monthly trading.
Some of Europe equities markets are in a bull market into 2026-27.
Economic growth.
criticalpointpod.com
The rich did better than others during bad times. I need investigate Kitchin biz cycle is not showing setbacks for rich, big biz as in the past. A rigged and more profitable decade trend robbing from middle class and poor.
April 15, 2025 at 11:06 PM
The rich did better than others during bad times. I need investigate Kitchin biz cycle is not showing setbacks for rich, big biz as in the past. A rigged and more profitable decade trend robbing from middle class and poor.
My last post showed the middle-class fell behind from the 1990s to today relative to the rich-class moving forward. This chart shows that Consumer Sentiment declined starting 1990s. The middle class is the largest group of consumers. Consumers are less happy with US economy overtime.
April 13, 2025 at 11:48 PM
My last post showed the middle-class fell behind from the 1990s to today relative to the rich-class moving forward. This chart shows that Consumer Sentiment declined starting 1990s. The middle class is the largest group of consumers. Consumers are less happy with US economy overtime.
For whom does the right wing capitalist economy work? Not everyone.
April 12, 2025 at 10:06 PM
For whom does the right wing capitalist economy work? Not everyone.
Ecstatic about how well the model performed. I was prepared for the slide. Even made some additional reward from brief bets on the downside. Investment wise, I sold out Dec-Feb- moved to cash.
March 14, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Ecstatic about how well the model performed. I was prepared for the slide. Even made some additional reward from brief bets on the downside. Investment wise, I sold out Dec-Feb- moved to cash.
Bought stock market (SP500 index) ahead of Jan inflation report generated rocket ship higher. Took gains.
The model allows higher in Feb and mid-year is increasing risk of a break down now into mid-year. Rising risk of a secondary recession. Risks of slippery and fuzzy times created by Maganomics.
The model allows higher in Feb and mid-year is increasing risk of a break down now into mid-year. Rising risk of a secondary recession. Risks of slippery and fuzzy times created by Maganomics.
January 29, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Bought stock market (SP500 index) ahead of Jan inflation report generated rocket ship higher. Took gains.
The model allows higher in Feb and mid-year is increasing risk of a break down now into mid-year. Rising risk of a secondary recession. Risks of slippery and fuzzy times created by Maganomics.
The model allows higher in Feb and mid-year is increasing risk of a break down now into mid-year. Rising risk of a secondary recession. Risks of slippery and fuzzy times created by Maganomics.
My model warned early this month that price should turn up. Also that the 2024 if violated would be perhaps the most significant trend change in years. And today I get the news of Colombia. A return to the office will be ahead of schedule.
January 27, 2025 at 12:07 AM
My model warned early this month that price should turn up. Also that the 2024 if violated would be perhaps the most significant trend change in years. And today I get the news of Colombia. A return to the office will be ahead of schedule.
Until record hi n stock indices-SP500, Dow, Nasdaq with clearing of a list model-based hurdles, I am bearish US stock market. A -7% to -36% event is likely. Risk of rising inflation, rates, dollar, crime, unemployment, and slower corporate profit. I moved to 100% cash during Dec.
Politics can impact
Politics can impact
January 8, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Until record hi n stock indices-SP500, Dow, Nasdaq with clearing of a list model-based hurdles, I am bearish US stock market. A -7% to -36% event is likely. Risk of rising inflation, rates, dollar, crime, unemployment, and slower corporate profit. I moved to 100% cash during Dec.
Politics can impact
Politics can impact
On my exercise path near off grid office.
January 7, 2025 at 6:24 PM
On my exercise path near off grid office.
12/6/24 The model shows selling will occur in Jan. So, the challenge now is whether a peak occurs in Dec or early Jan. I am leaning toward selling to abate ahead of Trump taking office, the model however, shows selling may occur again by early Feb. The morning briefs, weekly updates assist.
December 24, 2024 at 2:15 AM
12/6/24 The model shows selling will occur in Jan. So, the challenge now is whether a peak occurs in Dec or early Jan. I am leaning toward selling to abate ahead of Trump taking office, the model however, shows selling may occur again by early Feb. The morning briefs, weekly updates assist.
