I am proud to see this happening.

Even without these short-term effects, the model stands on its long-term economic ideals. But to see that the process itself—despite the hard work and isolation—is generating immediate hope and well-being?

That is fantastic.

We often think of poverty alleviation in terms of consumption. (The results we see are strong there with nearly 2 doublings in PPP-adjusted consumption)

Yet, this level of consumption is still quite low for Germany even with so much work. Something else could be contributing.

To speculate:

Is this result suggesting that opportunity and agency are massive drivers of well-being on their own?

While interacting with scholars, they repeatedly come back to the opportunity that is granted to them and how much they value it.

Our treatment group undertook a massive challenge:

They moved to a new country with zero social connections. They are learning a new language, integrating into a new culture, working and studying simultaneously.

I recognize this is hard, I've never been that stressed!

Tariffs go to near 0? Yes

50% confidence intervals

China 45 to 100 years
EU 4 to 16 years
Canada 1 month to 4 years

As we know now, with a near collapse of many INGOs occurring.

This was actually massively effective and very smart systems level thinking.

It could be better, but I was *almost always* impressed when I interacted with professionals.

Honestly, I'm pretty surly.

Pretty obviously have to shill.

It wasn't clear to me how much NGOs were extensions of aid organizations. Using them for the less "impact" part. Hence, gaining impact per unit.

While gov't does the opposite.

So you get "ineffective" infrastructure.

open.substack.com/pub/flavorye...

Despite calls for reform, USAID’s ability to mobilize vast resources and elite expertise remains essential. When failure isn’t an option, only large‑scale, coordinated action can meet the complex challenges of global development.

Scaling pilot projects into nationwide programs is notoriously difficult—short-term funding and fragmented efforts often stall progress. USAID’s sustained, multi-year commitment is key to turning promising ideas into lasting solutions.

Yet, USAID’s track record speaks volumes. Initiatives like PEPFAR have saved millions of lives, while programs like Development Innovation Ventures and Power Africa demonstrate how bold, well-funded strategies can drive transformative change.

Critics highlight USAID’s bureaucratic inefficiencies, heavy reliance on a few large contractors, and tied-aid rules that hike costs. Such challenges can slow progress and sometimes hinder cost-effective impact.

Unlike many NGOs tied to short-term, fragmented funding, USAID’s long-term, government-backed support enables transformative interventions. Its strategic oversight paired with on-the-ground NGO innovation creates a powerful, symbiotic partnership.

USAID embodies scale: operating in 130+ countries with over 10,000 staff, disbursing billions annually. Its massive reach in health, humanitarian aid, and economic development makes it a global powerhouse.

Yes! I think we are on the same page. That literature is exactly what I was thinking about.

Seeing your papers made me think about how to create measurements around it since the framework looks like portfolio optimization to me.

Anything that isn't a single large transfer reads as conditional to me!

We could just take NPV of all your expected giving and send it over once. That is minimum conditions afaict.

IMF arriving *if* crises ...
World Bank invests *if* program exists ...

Ah yes, agree with everything you say.

I was thinking that setting up the endowment/SWF would attempt to be pitched with fewer conditions. It's a single large transfer and then it can be spent as seen fit.

It removes the "overhead" from developed ledger to local.

In such a setup, even if some level of “optimal” corruption occurs (in the sense that it encourages growth through performance fees), the overall incentive would be to grow the endowment rather than deplete it.

End wild speculation triggered by thoughts of the dynamic allocation.