Richard James
@richardjames.bsky.social
Weather and climate interests, especially Alaska/Arctic
Professional focus on seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting
Professional focus on seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting
Very sorry, missed this completely. 2015 holds the OISSTv2 record, just over +3 relative to 1991-2020 climatology.
November 30, 2023 at 2:00 PM
Very sorry, missed this completely. 2015 holds the OISSTv2 record, just over +3 relative to 1991-2020 climatology.
Remarkable collapse of the negative PDO phase as warm SST anomalies are wiped out east of Japan. The models expect a negative phase to persist through winter, however.
October 20, 2023 at 3:37 PM
Remarkable collapse of the negative PDO phase as warm SST anomalies are wiped out east of Japan. The models expect a negative phase to persist through winter, however.
As expected, El Niño is slowly losing its East Pacific focus, with the core warm anomaly shifting west. Latest forecasts suggest a winter Modoki index similar to 2015/16 (+0.4).
That's a fairly typical value, neither strongly east-based (1997/98) nor Modoki-like (2009/10).
That's a fairly typical value, neither strongly east-based (1997/98) nor Modoki-like (2009/10).
October 19, 2023 at 7:19 PM
As expected, El Niño is slowly losing its East Pacific focus, with the core warm anomaly shifting west. Latest forecasts suggest a winter Modoki index similar to 2015/16 (+0.4).
That's a fairly typical value, neither strongly east-based (1997/98) nor Modoki-like (2009/10).
That's a fairly typical value, neither strongly east-based (1997/98) nor Modoki-like (2009/10).
Significant contrasts for the US as well of course
October 18, 2023 at 3:05 PM
Significant contrasts for the US as well of course
This isn't the whole story of course, but the now-strongly positive IOD certainly favors a more westerly pattern for northern Europe in early winter: warm, wet, and windy.
Contrast El Niño winters with +IOD versus near-neutral IOD:
Contrast El Niño winters with +IOD versus near-neutral IOD:
October 18, 2023 at 3:04 PM
This isn't the whole story of course, but the now-strongly positive IOD certainly favors a more westerly pattern for northern Europe in early winter: warm, wet, and windy.
Contrast El Niño winters with +IOD versus near-neutral IOD:
Contrast El Niño winters with +IOD versus near-neutral IOD:
One of the "niche" climate indicators I like to watch is the area of the Northern Hemisphere 850mb cold pool (temp < -5°C).
Lowest on record (1950-present) for the first 10 days of October 2023. Record high was in 1976 (also for the full months of October and November).
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...
Lowest on record (1950-present) for the first 10 days of October 2023. Record high was in 1976 (also for the full months of October and November).
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...
October 16, 2023 at 5:35 PM
One of the "niche" climate indicators I like to watch is the area of the Northern Hemisphere 850mb cold pool (temp < -5°C).
Lowest on record (1950-present) for the first 10 days of October 2023. Record high was in 1976 (also for the full months of October and November).
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...
Lowest on record (1950-present) for the first 10 days of October 2023. Record high was in 1976 (also for the full months of October and November).
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...