Renaud Foucart
@rfoucart.bsky.social
Economist at Lancaster University. IO, public policy, environment, experiments. Formerly ULB Bruxelles, Nuffield College, HU Berlin and Nottingham U.
renaudfoucart.com
renaudfoucart.com
It's part of a fun agenda on why people like to randomize, dislike being randomized, don't take enough advice, and why we should have more lotteries in procurement (6/6)
October 23, 2025 at 8:33 AM
It's part of a fun agenda on why people like to randomize, dislike being randomized, don't take enough advice, and why we should have more lotteries in procurement (6/6)
This is similar to Owens et al. (2017). Like them, we find that many more people choose to bet on themselves (self-chosen) than they would if they only cared about maximizing success (p-max) (3/6)
October 23, 2025 at 8:33 AM
This is similar to Owens et al. (2017). Like them, we find that many more people choose to bet on themselves (self-chosen) than they would if they only cared about maximizing success (p-max) (3/6)
We ask subjects to do a quick arithmetic task. Then they can either pick their own answer or that of another subject (who answered a different question) (2/6)
October 23, 2025 at 8:33 AM
We ask subjects to do a quick arithmetic task. Then they can either pick their own answer or that of another subject (who answered a different question) (2/6)
People love to be in control. They also love to take credit for success and blame others for failures. When we offer subjects a chance to delegate to a lottery that might pick their choice or someone else's, they stop being control freaks (1/6) (in econ letters) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
October 23, 2025 at 8:33 AM
People love to be in control. They also love to take credit for success and blame others for failures. When we offer subjects a chance to delegate to a lottery that might pick their choice or someone else's, they stop being control freaks (1/6) (in econ letters) www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
4. Bring in as many European troops and civilians in the non-contested parts of Ukraine as possible, and do it today. This show we are credibly to fight a localised war if needed, in contrast to an all-out war on which we would never be credible.
September 10, 2025 at 9:14 AM
4. Bring in as many European troops and civilians in the non-contested parts of Ukraine as possible, and do it today. This show we are credibly to fight a localised war if needed, in contrast to an all-out war on which we would never be credible.
3. Credible threat of retaliation is the only way to get peace, but we must avoid escalating. Defend the air space above Western Ukraine, but do not send Western troops to the frontline. Always leave the choice of escalating or not to your opponent.
September 10, 2025 at 9:14 AM
3. Credible threat of retaliation is the only way to get peace, but we must avoid escalating. Defend the air space above Western Ukraine, but do not send Western troops to the frontline. Always leave the choice of escalating or not to your opponent.
2. We should commit to air defense on all the non-currently contested parts of Ukraine. This offers “a last clear chance” of not escalating to Russia. If they claim they don’t want to invade Kyiv, then it should be possible to convince them not to bomb Kyiv.
September 10, 2025 at 9:14 AM
2. We should commit to air defense on all the non-currently contested parts of Ukraine. This offers “a last clear chance” of not escalating to Russia. If they claim they don’t want to invade Kyiv, then it should be possible to convince them not to bomb Kyiv.
1. We need to (reasonably) bind ourselves as much as possible. Air defense must be predictable and as automated as possible: when an attack comes, it is downed, no discussion.
September 10, 2025 at 9:14 AM
1. We need to (reasonably) bind ourselves as much as possible. Air defense must be predictable and as automated as possible: when an attack comes, it is downed, no discussion.
I guess it's time to open Thomas Schelling again! What should Europe (and the US???) do to get us closer to peace as Russia is probing attacks on Eastern Europe? Four points. (1/7)
September 10, 2025 at 9:14 AM
I guess it's time to open Thomas Schelling again! What should Europe (and the US???) do to get us closer to peace as Russia is probing attacks on Eastern Europe? Four points. (1/7)
Perhaps the one absolute success of 14 years of Conservative party rule in the UK will be claimed by no one www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
August 13, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Perhaps the one absolute success of 14 years of Conservative party rule in the UK will be claimed by no one www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
My favourite example is from the Republic of Ireland. People were angry about university admissions being based on high school results and a tie-breaking lottery. The government changed how results were summed up to reduce ties, making everyone happy. (11/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
My favourite example is from the Republic of Ireland. People were angry about university admissions being based on high school results and a tie-breaking lottery. The government changed how results were summed up to reduce ties, making everyone happy. (11/11)
This matters for the social acceptability of economists' mechanisms, which often involve random tie-breaking. Making them look more “reasonable” may help. (10/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
This matters for the social acceptability of economists' mechanisms, which often involve random tie-breaking. Making them look more “reasonable” may help. (10/11)
In practice, people worldwide are upset by being subject to randomization. The US Supreme Court ruled that tossing a coin in administrative decisions is illegal. We show that unpredictable -- de facto random -- procedures are more acceptable. (9/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
In practice, people worldwide are upset by being subject to randomization. The US Supreme Court ruled that tossing a coin in administrative decisions is illegal. We show that unpredictable -- de facto random -- procedures are more acceptable. (9/11)
Yet, control is not everything: people still prefer rock-paper-scissors with strategies chosen by us over guessing lottery results. It’s not about competition either; all procedures rewarded the top 50%. (8/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Yet, control is not everything: people still prefer rock-paper-scissors with strategies chosen by us over guessing lottery results. It’s not about competition either; all procedures rewarded the top 50%. (8/11)
But is this only about control? Control matters: when they can decide in the meaningless algorithm and not in the lottery, subject stop finding it worst than the lottery for instance. (but they prefer the lottery if they can guess the numbers themselves.) (7/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
But is this only about control? Control matters: when they can decide in the meaningless algorithm and not in the lottery, subject stop finding it worst than the lottery for instance. (but they prefer the lottery if they can guess the numbers themselves.) (7/11)
We found that people prefer to follow the rituals of reason. Most preferred rock-paper-scissors or the painting guessing over the lottery - but not the meaningless "Time" algorithm. (6/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
We found that people prefer to follow the rituals of reason. Most preferred rock-paper-scissors or the painting guessing over the lottery - but not the meaningless "Time" algorithm. (6/11)
The last method “Time” was the most boring: a meaningless algorithm. (5/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
The last method “Time” was the most boring: a meaningless algorithm. (5/11)
We tested this in two large-scale online experiments. Subjects chose how to allocate a prize among themselves: the top half performers get the money. Procedures included a public lottery, rock-paper-scissors (RPS), and guessing my coauthors' favourite painting. (4/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
We tested this in two large-scale online experiments. Subjects chose how to allocate a prize among themselves: the top half performers get the money. Procedures included a public lottery, rock-paper-scissors (RPS), and guessing my coauthors' favourite painting. (4/11)
John Elster (1989) had a theory: if we can’t find a reasonable way to break a tie, we’ll make one up. We follow the “rituals of reason,” like spending hours in meetings ranking equal projects. (3/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
John Elster (1989) had a theory: if we can’t find a reasonable way to break a tie, we’ll make one up. We follow the “rituals of reason,” like spending hours in meetings ranking equal projects. (3/11)
I used to believe some people were angry at the use of lotteries in school choice for selfish reasons -- in the hope of gaming the system or keeping segregated schools.
Our paper, now out in Games and Economic Behavior, tells the story of how I was at least partly wrong: (1/11)
Our paper, now out in Games and Economic Behavior, tells the story of how I was at least partly wrong: (1/11)
April 22, 2025 at 10:44 AM
I used to believe some people were angry at the use of lotteries in school choice for selfish reasons -- in the hope of gaming the system or keeping segregated schools.
Our paper, now out in Games and Economic Behavior, tells the story of how I was at least partly wrong: (1/11)
Our paper, now out in Games and Economic Behavior, tells the story of how I was at least partly wrong: (1/11)
If you ever felt bad for a mistake in your exam questions, the 10,000-candidate EU translator exam is cancelled because they set a multiple choice questionnaire as a multiple answer
April 15, 2025 at 9:36 AM
If you ever felt bad for a mistake in your exam questions, the 10,000-candidate EU translator exam is cancelled because they set a multiple choice questionnaire as a multiple answer
Having an office in Ireland will become, more than ever, the place to be for fiscal optimization. Pay RoI tax. Send to NI via Windsor framework. Export to the US at 10%.
April 2, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Having an office in Ireland will become, more than ever, the place to be for fiscal optimization. Pay RoI tax. Send to NI via Windsor framework. Export to the US at 10%.
If procrastination was a country
March 27, 2025 at 11:17 AM
If procrastination was a country
Economists: people don't understand marginal tax. If your tax rate increases above £100,000, you don't suddenly lose money when you earn £100,001
UK tax system: hold my beer www.ft.com/content/8fc5...
UK tax system: hold my beer www.ft.com/content/8fc5...
March 21, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Economists: people don't understand marginal tax. If your tax rate increases above £100,000, you don't suddenly lose money when you earn £100,001
UK tax system: hold my beer www.ft.com/content/8fc5...
UK tax system: hold my beer www.ft.com/content/8fc5...
I had no idea that before Shakespeare, the moral of Romeo and Juliet was that those little bastards should have listened to their parents instead of doing disgusting things and buying avocado toasts
(From Sophie Duncan's Searching for Juliet)
(From Sophie Duncan's Searching for Juliet)
March 14, 2025 at 11:22 AM
I had no idea that before Shakespeare, the moral of Romeo and Juliet was that those little bastards should have listened to their parents instead of doing disgusting things and buying avocado toasts
(From Sophie Duncan's Searching for Juliet)
(From Sophie Duncan's Searching for Juliet)