Rachel Ziemba
@reziemba.bsky.social
Geo-economics, EM, Energy/Resources. Obsessed by sanctions, sovereign wealth, debt, supply chains, trade. Ziemba Insights CNAS Horizon Engage NYU 🇨🇦 wine economist (dip WSET). NYC mostly, YVR often https://rziemba.substack.com
Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra.
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Rachel Ziemba on X: "Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra. Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs https://t.co/ojTI6BLB12" / X
Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra. Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs https://t.co/ojTI6BLB12
x.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra.
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs
x.com/reziemba/sta...
Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses.
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
November 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses.
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
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New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
November 7, 2025 at 10:36 PM
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Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia.
www.state.gov/releases/off...
www.state.gov/releases/off...
U.S.-Hungary Relations Reach New Heights - United States Department of State
Under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, U.S.-Hungary relations continue to reach new heights of cooperation and achievement. This partnership is built on mut...
www.state.gov
November 7, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia.
www.state.gov/releases/off...
www.state.gov/releases/off...
Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia.
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
November 7, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia.
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
Interesting reuters- reliance is looking to re-sell oil snapped up from MENA suppliers as part of hedging and uncertainty around sanctions exposure
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com
November 6, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Interesting reuters- reliance is looking to re-sell oil snapped up from MENA suppliers as part of hedging and uncertainty around sanctions exposure
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.
November 5, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.
Ieepa hearing: Odd that USG lawyers are now saying that revenues raised are “incidental” when other USG docs highlighlighted how loss of tariff revenue would sink US economy - tbc I don’t buy that either.
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
Live: Trump Tariffs Challenged Before US Supreme Court
Trump Tariffs: Live News From Supreme Court Hearing
www.bloomberg.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Ieepa hearing: Odd that USG lawyers are now saying that revenues raised are “incidental” when other USG docs highlighlighted how loss of tariff revenue would sink US economy - tbc I don’t buy that either.
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
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I don't know what will happen in NYC tonight, but I do know that regardless of outcome, any number of public figures, celebrities, politicians and institutions that oppose Mamdani have done so with a level of rhetorical ugliness, racism, and dishonesty that should neither be forgotten nor forgiven.
November 5, 2025 at 3:26 AM
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Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
November 5, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
November 5, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers)
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share,
Power costs to be key politiical issue
Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival
November 4, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival
I imagine quite a number of other foreign companies who exited Russia JVs will also decide not to excercise their right of return. Their home governments would probably block it plus who knows what additional costs they would be charged.
Mazda has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise the option. Global carmakers sold their assets to Russian firms for symbolic amounts & options to buy them back w/in several years. Mazda is 1st to lose its buyback rights.
Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says
Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I imagine quite a number of other foreign companies who exited Russia JVs will also decide not to excercise their right of return. Their home governments would probably block it plus who knows what additional costs they would be charged.
All signs suggest that Russian fuel exports are falling as buyers assess sanctions risk, framing a 190k drop on a level of over 3.5mbd may overstate the word “plunge”? This kind of weekly move not unprecedented esp with other supplies up.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Russia's Crude Deliveries Plunge as US Sanctions Begin to Bite
The amount of Russian oil held on tankers has risen by 8% since the start of September
www.bloomberg.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:16 PM
All signs suggest that Russian fuel exports are falling as buyers assess sanctions risk, framing a 190k drop on a level of over 3.5mbd may overstate the word “plunge”? This kind of weekly move not unprecedented esp with other supplies up.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
USG seems to have expanded its sanctions relief on Belarusian airlines, by removing Belavia from SDN list + issuing new general license for select planes even if used for lukashenka travel. Maybe related to hostage swaps but has potential to be used more broadly.
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
November 4, 2025 at 3:50 PM
USG seems to have expanded its sanctions relief on Belarusian airlines, by removing Belavia from SDN list + issuing new general license for select planes even if used for lukashenka travel. Maybe related to hostage swaps but has potential to be used more broadly.
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
More detail on the Microsoft AI investments in UAE including its partnerships with G42 and work with ADNOC, including some details about chip licenses for top level chips employment and joint technology development
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
Microsoft’s $15.2 Billion USD Investment in the UAE
Microsoft announced a $15.2 billion USD investment plan in the United Arab Emirates focusing on AI technology, talent development, and building trust between the two nations.
blogs.microsoft.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:43 PM
More detail on the Microsoft AI investments in UAE including its partnerships with G42 and work with ADNOC, including some details about chip licenses for top level chips employment and joint technology development
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue...
www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
More applications to CPTPP this time including Philippines and UAE, later of which has been actively signing CEPAs to reduce non-tariff barriers, as well as negotiating other FTAs more slowly as part of the GCC.
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
Philippines and UAE apply to join TPP to counter Trump tariffs
Move comes as Japan and other members seek to safeguard trade
asia.nikkei.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:23 PM
More applications to CPTPP this time including Philippines and UAE, later of which has been actively signing CEPAs to reduce non-tariff barriers, as well as negotiating other FTAs more slowly as part of the GCC.
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...
November 1, 2025 at 11:06 PM
Details on what the US thinks they and Chinese govt agreed to in a new fact sheet.
- China suspending global implementation of new export controls not just for US. General licenses (new policy for China?) for US supply chains on older export controls.
US export control adj (50% rule) also global
- China suspending global implementation of new export controls not just for US. General licenses (new policy for China?) for US supply chains on older export controls.
US export control adj (50% rule) also global
November 1, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Details on what the US thinks they and Chinese govt agreed to in a new fact sheet.
- China suspending global implementation of new export controls not just for US. General licenses (new policy for China?) for US supply chains on older export controls.
US export control adj (50% rule) also global
- China suspending global implementation of new export controls not just for US. General licenses (new policy for China?) for US supply chains on older export controls.
US export control adj (50% rule) also global
Us-china trade truce seems to involve
- 10% cut in US “fentanyl” tariffs. Any cut from China? (Key for energy)
- 1 year delay in implement of export controls (rare earths on Chinese side, affiliates rule on US)
- commodity purchases (mostly grain)
- maybe delays on shipping fees
- 10% cut in US “fentanyl” tariffs. Any cut from China? (Key for energy)
- 1 year delay in implement of export controls (rare earths on Chinese side, affiliates rule on US)
- commodity purchases (mostly grain)
- maybe delays on shipping fees
October 30, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Us-china trade truce seems to involve
- 10% cut in US “fentanyl” tariffs. Any cut from China? (Key for energy)
- 1 year delay in implement of export controls (rare earths on Chinese side, affiliates rule on US)
- commodity purchases (mostly grain)
- maybe delays on shipping fees
- 10% cut in US “fentanyl” tariffs. Any cut from China? (Key for energy)
- 1 year delay in implement of export controls (rare earths on Chinese side, affiliates rule on US)
- commodity purchases (mostly grain)
- maybe delays on shipping fees
Looks like a good event
🚨How can we write about China-US relations without a Cold-War binary or Orientalist rhetoric? Check out our upcoming virtual writing workshop with @yangyangcheng.bsky.social!
📅6 December 2025, 12 – 1:45 PM
💲$40 USD ($20 for students/members/grads)
For more details: nuvoices.com/2025/10/27/v...
📅6 December 2025, 12 – 1:45 PM
💲$40 USD ($20 for students/members/grads)
For more details: nuvoices.com/2025/10/27/v...
October 29, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Looks like a good event
USG confirms a new general license for Rosneft deutschland + marketing arm, allowing German assets effectively nationalized by Ger govt to continue.
Notably not a broad license for all foreign assets associated. divestment challenged by sanctions
ofac.treasury.gov/media/934726...
Notably not a broad license for all foreign assets associated. divestment challenged by sanctions
ofac.treasury.gov/media/934726...
ofac.treasury.gov
October 29, 2025 at 4:52 PM
USG confirms a new general license for Rosneft deutschland + marketing arm, allowing German assets effectively nationalized by Ger govt to continue.
Notably not a broad license for all foreign assets associated. divestment challenged by sanctions
ofac.treasury.gov/media/934726...
Notably not a broad license for all foreign assets associated. divestment challenged by sanctions
ofac.treasury.gov/media/934726...
Energy relevant stuff on the US-South Korea discussions- Koreans will buy more LNG via LT contracts via global LNG players. No promises on alaska yet but Lt contracts from global portfolios site agnostic.
Also investment to boost uranium enrichment and grid inv.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
Also investment to boost uranium enrichment and grid inv.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Brings Home More Billion Dollar Deals During State Visit to the Republic of Korea
SECURING BILLIONS IN EXPORTS AND INVESTMENTS: Today,President Donald J. Trump completed the final stop of his historic Indo-Pacific trip, securing
www.whitehouse.gov
October 29, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Energy relevant stuff on the US-South Korea discussions- Koreans will buy more LNG via LT contracts via global LNG players. No promises on alaska yet but Lt contracts from global portfolios site agnostic.
Also investment to boost uranium enrichment and grid inv.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
Also investment to boost uranium enrichment and grid inv.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
US pledging to coordinate AI exports with both japan and south korea, and presumably also others. Mostly about export control coordination and standards. There’s a lot of bilateral coordination being pledged here- is there bandwidth? Or are minilaterals ahead?
www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
www.whitehouse.gov
October 29, 2025 at 3:49 PM
US pledging to coordinate AI exports with both japan and south korea, and presumably also others. Mostly about export control coordination and standards. There’s a lot of bilateral coordination being pledged here- is there bandwidth? Or are minilaterals ahead?
www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
Some thoughts on the raft of economic documents released on Trump’s Asia tour
Tariffs: generally same
purchase agreements (energy incl coal, planes)
inv plans (differ by country, decentralized)
Big mineral focus but tough implementation
Lots of Econ security
open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...
Tariffs: generally same
purchase agreements (energy incl coal, planes)
inv plans (differ by country, decentralized)
Big mineral focus but tough implementation
Lots of Econ security
open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...
Dissecting the US-Asian Trade Frameworks
What's in the recent new trade Frameworks/MOUs/"Agreements? A lot of aspirational Investment pledges, goods purchases and some important shifts in economic security.
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Some thoughts on the raft of economic documents released on Trump’s Asia tour
Tariffs: generally same
purchase agreements (energy incl coal, planes)
inv plans (differ by country, decentralized)
Big mineral focus but tough implementation
Lots of Econ security
open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...
Tariffs: generally same
purchase agreements (energy incl coal, planes)
inv plans (differ by country, decentralized)
Big mineral focus but tough implementation
Lots of Econ security
open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...