Just read this truly lovely history of the fixed effects estimator, a concept I've repeatedly taught and used but never knew the origins of.

(Also helps me justify never using random effects!)

Thanks to Marc Bellemare and @dlmillimet.bsky.social for writing it.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Dale Mortensen in his 2010 Nobel Lecture,

"The demand
side of the market was not explicitly modeled...in the 1970s. The exception...Diamond (1971)...[and] the only reference given in Diamond’s paper is to [the Phelps Volume] Phelps, Archibald, and
Alchian (1970)."

To celebrate the start of the 🏀NBA Playoffs, we’ve put together a starter pack featuring some of our favorite basketball writers. Give them a follow, and share some of your own recommendations below ⬇

#QJE May 2025, #1, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

🚨 Thrilled that our 🆕 paper
“Age and Cognitive Skills: Use It or Lose It”
just came out in #ScienceAdvances @science.org

💡 Longitudinal evidence: age pattern of literacy+numeracy not as bleak as cross-section suggests + strongly differs by skill usage

www.science.org/doi/full/10....

🧵A thread
1/7

In case you missed this bit on tariffs, Adam Smith said it first.

Source: Bhagwati, J. N. (1988). Protectionism. MIT Press.

The implementation of TWFE:
reghdfe Y D##T, absorb(state year) robust

The causal implication of the TWFE coefficient:

Real highway investment is likely down since the enactment of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in November 2021. Best guess is down by 10% or more but possible is down by less or even flat.

This🧵shows my preferred measure (the standard one experts use) & two alternatives.

2024 vs. 1994 : Same story?

Export restrictions and tariffs on the chip manufacturing industry seems like a record playing all over again.

Sometimes you have to write “Truth and Probability” just because Margaret won’t fuck with you.

open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...

I must say, being on here, I don’t miss getting myself as wound up as I might on Xitter.
None of us need that in this day and age. Life’s stressful enough without actively going looking for it.
The hackles are still prone to rising… but certainly not as often.
Calm & ease, Reece… calm & ease! 😄

All surface temperature products for 2024 are now live.

All show 2024 is the warmest year (very clearly).

The estimates of the change since the pre-industrial (1850-1900) are more uncertain but range from 1.46 to 1.62ºC.

It is therefore *likely* this was the first year that exceeded 1.5ºC.

Economic Policy Institute (2018), "The Productivity-Pay Gap," www.epi.org/productivity...

Deepak Nayyar's thoughts on macroeconomic imbalances.

Nayyar, D. (2019) Resurgent Asia: Diversity in Development. Oxford University Press. WIDER Studies in Development Economics. Oxford University Press.