Reef Insights
@reefinsights.bsky.social
At Reef Insights, we specialize in providing comprehensive and insightful analysis, empowering you to make informed decisions in an ever-evolving market.
Website: https://reefinsights.com/
Website: https://reefinsights.com/
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@hankgreen.bsky.social Hey Hank, I just watched your latest video on electricity. You compared it to housing in the introduction, but I think that’s a slight misconception when it comes to housing affordability. We primarily publish on X, but I’d be happy to share some pieces that explain the issue.
September 5, 2025 at 2:54 AM
@hankgreen.bsky.social Hey Hank, I just watched your latest video on electricity. You compared it to housing in the introduction, but I think that’s a slight misconception when it comes to housing affordability. We primarily publish on X, but I’d be happy to share some pieces that explain the issue.
New Housing Inventory Continues to Rise
New home inventory has reached 495,000 units as of January 2025, a level not seen since the GFC.
This build-up comes amidst rising interest rates and slowing price appreciation.
New home inventory has reached 495,000 units as of January 2025, a level not seen since the GFC.
This build-up comes amidst rising interest rates and slowing price appreciation.
March 3, 2025 at 11:00 PM
New Housing Inventory Continues to Rise
New home inventory has reached 495,000 units as of January 2025, a level not seen since the GFC.
This build-up comes amidst rising interest rates and slowing price appreciation.
New home inventory has reached 495,000 units as of January 2025, a level not seen since the GFC.
This build-up comes amidst rising interest rates and slowing price appreciation.
Credit card interest rates remain stubbornly high at 21.47% in Q4 2024, down only slightly from the all-time peak of 21.76% in Q3 2024.
This comes as Americans' credit card debt reached a staggering $1.17 trillion.
This comes as Americans' credit card debt reached a staggering $1.17 trillion.
February 5, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Credit card interest rates remain stubbornly high at 21.47% in Q4 2024, down only slightly from the all-time peak of 21.76% in Q3 2024.
This comes as Americans' credit card debt reached a staggering $1.17 trillion.
This comes as Americans' credit card debt reached a staggering $1.17 trillion.
Tariffs Cannot Replace Income Taxes
A 70% tariff on all imports ($3.1 trillion in 2023) would theoretically raise $2.2 trillion - matching current income tax revenue.
However, such extreme tariffs would cause imports to plummet dramatically.
A 70% tariff on all imports ($3.1 trillion in 2023) would theoretically raise $2.2 trillion - matching current income tax revenue.
However, such extreme tariffs would cause imports to plummet dramatically.
January 29, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Tariffs Cannot Replace Income Taxes
A 70% tariff on all imports ($3.1 trillion in 2023) would theoretically raise $2.2 trillion - matching current income tax revenue.
However, such extreme tariffs would cause imports to plummet dramatically.
A 70% tariff on all imports ($3.1 trillion in 2023) would theoretically raise $2.2 trillion - matching current income tax revenue.
However, such extreme tariffs would cause imports to plummet dramatically.
What Would Happen to Key U.S. Industries Without Undocumented Workers?
The construction sector employs over 1.5 million undocumented workers, representing 13.7% of its total workforce - the highest concentration across all major industries.
The construction sector employs over 1.5 million undocumented workers, representing 13.7% of its total workforce - the highest concentration across all major industries.
January 27, 2025 at 10:46 PM
What Would Happen to Key U.S. Industries Without Undocumented Workers?
The construction sector employs over 1.5 million undocumented workers, representing 13.7% of its total workforce - the highest concentration across all major industries.
The construction sector employs over 1.5 million undocumented workers, representing 13.7% of its total workforce - the highest concentration across all major industries.
Credit card interest rates have reached unprecedented levels, with the average rate hitting 21.47% in November 2024.
This marks a concerning trend for consumers, particularly as total credit card debt has swelled to $1.17 trillion in the third quarter of 2024.
This marks a concerning trend for consumers, particularly as total credit card debt has swelled to $1.17 trillion in the third quarter of 2024.
January 20, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Credit card interest rates have reached unprecedented levels, with the average rate hitting 21.47% in November 2024.
This marks a concerning trend for consumers, particularly as total credit card debt has swelled to $1.17 trillion in the third quarter of 2024.
This marks a concerning trend for consumers, particularly as total credit card debt has swelled to $1.17 trillion in the third quarter of 2024.
Accepting Unsold Apartments as Debt Repayment
A recent WSJ article detailed how Chinese local governments are increasingly using unsold apartments as payment to settle debts, a tactic initially used by struggling property developers.
A recent WSJ article detailed how Chinese local governments are increasingly using unsold apartments as payment to settle debts, a tactic initially used by struggling property developers.
January 15, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Accepting Unsold Apartments as Debt Repayment
A recent WSJ article detailed how Chinese local governments are increasingly using unsold apartments as payment to settle debts, a tactic initially used by struggling property developers.
A recent WSJ article detailed how Chinese local governments are increasingly using unsold apartments as payment to settle debts, a tactic initially used by struggling property developers.
Is the Housing Market Headed for a Major Slowdown in 2025?
The three-month average spread between housing starts and completions has plunged to -314,000 units in December 2024, marking one of the most significant negative spreads since the 2008 financial crisis.
The three-month average spread between housing starts and completions has plunged to -314,000 units in December 2024, marking one of the most significant negative spreads since the 2008 financial crisis.
January 14, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Is the Housing Market Headed for a Major Slowdown in 2025?
The three-month average spread between housing starts and completions has plunged to -314,000 units in December 2024, marking one of the most significant negative spreads since the 2008 financial crisis.
The three-month average spread between housing starts and completions has plunged to -314,000 units in December 2024, marking one of the most significant negative spreads since the 2008 financial crisis.
Consumer credit card debt has reached an unprecedented level of $1.08 trillion as of December 2024, marking a dramatic 27.6% increase since January 2020.
This surge represents the steepest climb in credit card borrowing since the 2008 financial crisis.
This surge represents the steepest climb in credit card borrowing since the 2008 financial crisis.
January 9, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Consumer credit card debt has reached an unprecedented level of $1.08 trillion as of December 2024, marking a dramatic 27.6% increase since January 2020.
This surge represents the steepest climb in credit card borrowing since the 2008 financial crisis.
This surge represents the steepest climb in credit card borrowing since the 2008 financial crisis.
Planned Office Conversions
Office-to-residential conversions are finally gaining traction as office vacancy rates reach record highs.
With property values plunging, especially for older, less desirable buildings, many developers are finding conversions economically feasible for the first time.
Office-to-residential conversions are finally gaining traction as office vacancy rates reach record highs.
With property values plunging, especially for older, less desirable buildings, many developers are finding conversions economically feasible for the first time.
January 6, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Planned Office Conversions
Office-to-residential conversions are finally gaining traction as office vacancy rates reach record highs.
With property values plunging, especially for older, less desirable buildings, many developers are finding conversions economically feasible for the first time.
Office-to-residential conversions are finally gaining traction as office vacancy rates reach record highs.
With property values plunging, especially for older, less desirable buildings, many developers are finding conversions economically feasible for the first time.
Hardship for Gen Z
Despite a 158% increase in household income over the past thirty years, the costs of college, rent, and homeownership have significantly outpaced this growth.
Despite a 158% increase in household income over the past thirty years, the costs of college, rent, and homeownership have significantly outpaced this growth.
January 4, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Hardship for Gen Z
Despite a 158% increase in household income over the past thirty years, the costs of college, rent, and homeownership have significantly outpaced this growth.
Despite a 158% increase in household income over the past thirty years, the costs of college, rent, and homeownership have significantly outpaced this growth.
Regional Housing Inventory Differences
In the chart below, you’ll notice that the number of new homes for sale has increased significantly in the South and West regions.
The South, in particular, has reached its highest inventory levels since 1974.
In the chart below, you’ll notice that the number of new homes for sale has increased significantly in the South and West regions.
The South, in particular, has reached its highest inventory levels since 1974.
January 2, 2025 at 8:40 PM
Regional Housing Inventory Differences
In the chart below, you’ll notice that the number of new homes for sale has increased significantly in the South and West regions.
The South, in particular, has reached its highest inventory levels since 1974.
In the chart below, you’ll notice that the number of new homes for sale has increased significantly in the South and West regions.
The South, in particular, has reached its highest inventory levels since 1974.
What's Driving the Rise in New Home Inventory?
New home inventory has reached 124,000 units in November 2024, marking a 57% increase from the previous year.
This surge in the new housing market presents a distinct dynamic from the existing home market, where inventory remains more constrained.
New home inventory has reached 124,000 units in November 2024, marking a 57% increase from the previous year.
This surge in the new housing market presents a distinct dynamic from the existing home market, where inventory remains more constrained.
December 27, 2024 at 5:59 PM
What's Driving the Rise in New Home Inventory?
New home inventory has reached 124,000 units in November 2024, marking a 57% increase from the previous year.
This surge in the new housing market presents a distinct dynamic from the existing home market, where inventory remains more constrained.
New home inventory has reached 124,000 units in November 2024, marking a 57% increase from the previous year.
This surge in the new housing market presents a distinct dynamic from the existing home market, where inventory remains more constrained.
The Federal Reserve has continued to lower the federal funds rate, with the benchmark now sitting at 4.25-4.5% after its third consecutive cut. However, in a puzzling divergence, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily.
December 26, 2024 at 2:01 PM
The Federal Reserve has continued to lower the federal funds rate, with the benchmark now sitting at 4.25-4.5% after its third consecutive cut. However, in a puzzling divergence, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily.
The U.S. unemployment rate has crept up to 4.2% in November 2024, continuing a concerning upward trend from 3.7% a year ago.
While the Fed characterizes this as a "soft landing," historical patterns suggest we should be more cautious about this interpretation.
While the Fed characterizes this as a "soft landing," historical patterns suggest we should be more cautious about this interpretation.
December 24, 2024 at 2:27 PM
The U.S. unemployment rate has crept up to 4.2% in November 2024, continuing a concerning upward trend from 3.7% a year ago.
While the Fed characterizes this as a "soft landing," historical patterns suggest we should be more cautious about this interpretation.
While the Fed characterizes this as a "soft landing," historical patterns suggest we should be more cautious about this interpretation.
December 2024 | REEF Report
We've just published our latest REEF report! You can receive it for free by signing up on our website.
We discuss topics such as:
- Federal reserve policy pivot
- Construction market inflection
- Credit market stress signals
and much more!
We've just published our latest REEF report! You can receive it for free by signing up on our website.
We discuss topics such as:
- Federal reserve policy pivot
- Construction market inflection
- Credit market stress signals
and much more!
December 23, 2024 at 3:00 PM
December 2024 | REEF Report
We've just published our latest REEF report! You can receive it for free by signing up on our website.
We discuss topics such as:
- Federal reserve policy pivot
- Construction market inflection
- Credit market stress signals
and much more!
We've just published our latest REEF report! You can receive it for free by signing up on our website.
We discuss topics such as:
- Federal reserve policy pivot
- Construction market inflection
- Credit market stress signals
and much more!
Will Mortgage Rates Remain Stubbornly High Despite Fed Rate Cuts?
30-year mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.6% in December 2024, defying expectations of a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate cuts.
30-year mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.6% in December 2024, defying expectations of a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate cuts.
December 19, 2024 at 4:24 PM
Will Mortgage Rates Remain Stubbornly High Despite Fed Rate Cuts?
30-year mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.6% in December 2024, defying expectations of a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate cuts.
30-year mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.6% in December 2024, defying expectations of a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's pivot toward rate cuts.
Will the Housing Market Cool Down or Continue to Burn Household Budgets?
Monthly housing expenses have surged to concerning levels, with recent data showing a 29.8% elevation above the 10-year average as of October 2024.
Monthly housing expenses have surged to concerning levels, with recent data showing a 29.8% elevation above the 10-year average as of October 2024.
December 18, 2024 at 11:23 PM
Will the Housing Market Cool Down or Continue to Burn Household Budgets?
Monthly housing expenses have surged to concerning levels, with recent data showing a 29.8% elevation above the 10-year average as of October 2024.
Monthly housing expenses have surged to concerning levels, with recent data showing a 29.8% elevation above the 10-year average as of October 2024.
Is the Labor Market Returning to Pre-Pandemic Norms?
Total nonfarm job openings rose slightly to 7.7 million in October 2024, but they remain far below the March 2022 peak of 12.2 million.
Total nonfarm job openings rose slightly to 7.7 million in October 2024, but they remain far below the March 2022 peak of 12.2 million.
December 10, 2024 at 11:21 PM
Is the Labor Market Returning to Pre-Pandemic Norms?
Total nonfarm job openings rose slightly to 7.7 million in October 2024, but they remain far below the March 2022 peak of 12.2 million.
Total nonfarm job openings rose slightly to 7.7 million in October 2024, but they remain far below the March 2022 peak of 12.2 million.
Trump's Economic Proposals (1/10)
Trump's 2024 economic policy proposals focus on tax reductions, trade barriers, and corporate incentives, with goals to stimulate growth, counterbalance trade deficits, and support domestic industries.
Here’s a detailed look:
Trump's 2024 economic policy proposals focus on tax reductions, trade barriers, and corporate incentives, with goals to stimulate growth, counterbalance trade deficits, and support domestic industries.
Here’s a detailed look:
December 4, 2024 at 2:07 PM
Trump's Economic Proposals (1/10)
Trump's 2024 economic policy proposals focus on tax reductions, trade barriers, and corporate incentives, with goals to stimulate growth, counterbalance trade deficits, and support domestic industries.
Here’s a detailed look:
Trump's 2024 economic policy proposals focus on tax reductions, trade barriers, and corporate incentives, with goals to stimulate growth, counterbalance trade deficits, and support domestic industries.
Here’s a detailed look:
The Great Slowdown: America's Production Plateau (1/9)
What would it take to make domestic manufacturing economically viable across a broader range of industries?
What would it take to make domestic manufacturing economically viable across a broader range of industries?
December 4, 2024 at 1:17 AM
The Great Slowdown: America's Production Plateau (1/9)
What would it take to make domestic manufacturing economically viable across a broader range of industries?
What would it take to make domestic manufacturing economically viable across a broader range of industries?
Below, you'll see a chart that displays the debt-to-GDP level for the United States, as well as other countries. The last time this level was reached was during World War II.
December 3, 2024 at 1:44 PM
Below, you'll see a chart that displays the debt-to-GDP level for the United States, as well as other countries. The last time this level was reached was during World War II.
One-Pager on Robert Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance:
December 2, 2024 at 11:05 PM
One-Pager on Robert Shiller's book Irrational Exuberance:
Federal Interest Payments Continue to Grow
Federal government interest payments continued their upward trajectory, reaching $1,116.96 billion in July 2024, representing a 15.34% increase year-over-year.
Federal government interest payments continued their upward trajectory, reaching $1,116.96 billion in July 2024, representing a 15.34% increase year-over-year.
December 2, 2024 at 12:59 PM
Federal Interest Payments Continue to Grow
Federal government interest payments continued their upward trajectory, reaching $1,116.96 billion in July 2024, representing a 15.34% increase year-over-year.
Federal government interest payments continued their upward trajectory, reaching $1,116.96 billion in July 2024, representing a 15.34% increase year-over-year.