Red Sox Payroll
@redsoxpayroll.bsky.social
Keeping the Red Sox payroll since 2011. Salaries are in average annual value (AAV). Not with the team.
Payroll: https://bit.ly/3WCDjp3
Site: https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm
Blog: http://redsoxpayroll.medium.com
Payroll: https://bit.ly/3WCDjp3
Site: https://soxprospects.com/payroll.htm
Blog: http://redsoxpayroll.medium.com
Here's the team-controlled SP depth and projected costs for 2025-2031.
As we head towards the deadline, this goes to show there are 10+ bodies in each season, if everyone proves to be an MLB starter/contributor.
Is there a #1 /#2 SP in there below Crochet? Time to consolidate.
As we head towards the deadline, this goes to show there are 10+ bodies in each season, if everyone proves to be an MLB starter/contributor.
Is there a #1 /#2 SP in there below Crochet? Time to consolidate.
July 17, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Here's the team-controlled SP depth and projected costs for 2025-2031.
As we head towards the deadline, this goes to show there are 10+ bodies in each season, if everyone proves to be an MLB starter/contributor.
Is there a #1 /#2 SP in there below Crochet? Time to consolidate.
As we head towards the deadline, this goes to show there are 10+ bodies in each season, if everyone proves to be an MLB starter/contributor.
Is there a #1 /#2 SP in there below Crochet? Time to consolidate.
Here's the top 8 AL rookies by fWAR. Wilson's main edge comes from GP.
If you normalize the WAR/87g, see how Roman closes the gap (87g is also likely what he ends up playing this season). Wilson likely gets to ~132g.
I'd expect Narvaez's WAR trajectory to fade in the 2nd half.
If you normalize the WAR/87g, see how Roman closes the gap (87g is also likely what he ends up playing this season). Wilson likely gets to ~132g.
I'd expect Narvaez's WAR trajectory to fade in the 2nd half.
July 17, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Here's the top 8 AL rookies by fWAR. Wilson's main edge comes from GP.
If you normalize the WAR/87g, see how Roman closes the gap (87g is also likely what he ends up playing this season). Wilson likely gets to ~132g.
I'd expect Narvaez's WAR trajectory to fade in the 2nd half.
If you normalize the WAR/87g, see how Roman closes the gap (87g is also likely what he ends up playing this season). Wilson likely gets to ~132g.
I'd expect Narvaez's WAR trajectory to fade in the 2nd half.
Here's a Red Sox trade savings chart, if the team decides to sell.
It displays how much the team would project to save on the CBT if certain guys are traded on 7/1, 7/8 or between 7/15-7/31 (deadline).
Amounts are prorated and added to projected bonuses earned to get total daily #s.
It displays how much the team would project to save on the CBT if certain guys are traded on 7/1, 7/8 or between 7/15-7/31 (deadline).
Amounts are prorated and added to projected bonuses earned to get total daily #s.
May 30, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Here's a Red Sox trade savings chart, if the team decides to sell.
It displays how much the team would project to save on the CBT if certain guys are traded on 7/1, 7/8 or between 7/15-7/31 (deadline).
Amounts are prorated and added to projected bonuses earned to get total daily #s.
It displays how much the team would project to save on the CBT if certain guys are traded on 7/1, 7/8 or between 7/15-7/31 (deadline).
Amounts are prorated and added to projected bonuses earned to get total daily #s.
Started tracking bonuses differently this year. It's a more precise snapshot based on specific incentives + performance.
I made the first round of adjustments today to stay on top of a final CBT projection.
Adjusted Giolito (IP), Hendriks (IP), & Refsnyder (PA) down, and Buehler (GS) up.
I made the first round of adjustments today to stay on top of a final CBT projection.
Adjusted Giolito (IP), Hendriks (IP), & Refsnyder (PA) down, and Buehler (GS) up.
April 24, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Started tracking bonuses differently this year. It's a more precise snapshot based on specific incentives + performance.
I made the first round of adjustments today to stay on top of a final CBT projection.
Adjusted Giolito (IP), Hendriks (IP), & Refsnyder (PA) down, and Buehler (GS) up.
I made the first round of adjustments today to stay on top of a final CBT projection.
Adjusted Giolito (IP), Hendriks (IP), & Refsnyder (PA) down, and Buehler (GS) up.
As Cora tweaks the lineup, here's an optimization tool from BaseballMusings.com that uses OBA and Slugging to suggest the highest runs-per-game lineup.
Take it for what it is, but it loves Campbell/Abreu in the top few spots from the results of the first 3 weeks.
Take it for what it is, but it loves Campbell/Abreu in the top few spots from the results of the first 3 weeks.
April 15, 2025 at 9:18 PM
As Cora tweaks the lineup, here's an optimization tool from BaseballMusings.com that uses OBA and Slugging to suggest the highest runs-per-game lineup.
Take it for what it is, but it loves Campbell/Abreu in the top few spots from the results of the first 3 weeks.
Take it for what it is, but it loves Campbell/Abreu in the top few spots from the results of the first 3 weeks.
Crochet's new contract is the 2nd-largest for a Red Sox pitcher ever, behind David Price, and the richest extension they've given out.
April 1, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Crochet's new contract is the 2nd-largest for a Red Sox pitcher ever, behind David Price, and the richest extension they've given out.
Red Sox 40-man starting pitching investment outlook, 2025-2031.
*Green = arbitration estimate
*Green = arbitration estimate
April 1, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Red Sox 40-man starting pitching investment outlook, 2025-2031.
*Green = arbitration estimate
*Green = arbitration estimate
These are the FA possibles for Boston after the 2025 season:
Buehler (mutual opt)
Chapman
Hendriks (mutual opt)
Wilson
Ref
Giolito (cond'l option)
Bregman (player opt-out)
Below is who is under contract for '26. Including arb$, the team should cost ~$200M. Assuming Story stays.
~$231M if AB stays
Buehler (mutual opt)
Chapman
Hendriks (mutual opt)
Wilson
Ref
Giolito (cond'l option)
Bregman (player opt-out)
Below is who is under contract for '26. Including arb$, the team should cost ~$200M. Assuming Story stays.
~$231M if AB stays
February 18, 2025 at 9:13 PM
These are the FA possibles for Boston after the 2025 season:
Buehler (mutual opt)
Chapman
Hendriks (mutual opt)
Wilson
Ref
Giolito (cond'l option)
Bregman (player opt-out)
Below is who is under contract for '26. Including arb$, the team should cost ~$200M. Assuming Story stays.
~$231M if AB stays
Buehler (mutual opt)
Chapman
Hendriks (mutual opt)
Wilson
Ref
Giolito (cond'l option)
Bregman (player opt-out)
Below is who is under contract for '26. Including arb$, the team should cost ~$200M. Assuming Story stays.
~$231M if AB stays
Bryant can save it a bit, but yeah...woof.
February 12, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Bryant can save it a bit, but yeah...woof.
Seeing quite a bit of 6-man rotation buzz this week. Here's a model of four options:
1. 6-man, no skips
2. 6-man, skip #6 when off turn
3. 5-man, no skips
4. 5-man, skip #5 when off turn
(of course, they'll use a hybrid of models for rest and injury, just a visual).
1. 6-man, no skips
2. 6-man, skip #6 when off turn
3. 5-man, no skips
4. 5-man, skip #5 when off turn
(of course, they'll use a hybrid of models for rest and injury, just a visual).
February 11, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Seeing quite a bit of 6-man rotation buzz this week. Here's a model of four options:
1. 6-man, no skips
2. 6-man, skip #6 when off turn
3. 5-man, no skips
4. 5-man, skip #5 when off turn
(of course, they'll use a hybrid of models for rest and injury, just a visual).
1. 6-man, no skips
2. 6-man, skip #6 when off turn
3. 5-man, no skips
4. 5-man, skip #5 when off turn
(of course, they'll use a hybrid of models for rest and injury, just a visual).
End of Jan Red Sox reset:
Payroll estimate: $208.86M (~$32M below 1st CBT line)
soxprospects.com/payroll.htm
Roster projection + depth (see below):
soxprospects.com/2025.htm
Spring training P&C report 2/12, game vs NU on 2/21
Expect MLB signings/trades thru late March + more AAA depth additions
Payroll estimate: $208.86M (~$32M below 1st CBT line)
soxprospects.com/payroll.htm
Roster projection + depth (see below):
soxprospects.com/2025.htm
Spring training P&C report 2/12, game vs NU on 2/21
Expect MLB signings/trades thru late March + more AAA depth additions
January 30, 2025 at 2:28 PM
End of Jan Red Sox reset:
Payroll estimate: $208.86M (~$32M below 1st CBT line)
soxprospects.com/payroll.htm
Roster projection + depth (see below):
soxprospects.com/2025.htm
Spring training P&C report 2/12, game vs NU on 2/21
Expect MLB signings/trades thru late March + more AAA depth additions
Payroll estimate: $208.86M (~$32M below 1st CBT line)
soxprospects.com/payroll.htm
Roster projection + depth (see below):
soxprospects.com/2025.htm
Spring training P&C report 2/12, game vs NU on 2/21
Expect MLB signings/trades thru late March + more AAA depth additions
Offseason transaction pacing update. 2024/25 was on pace before the New Year, but things have gone dark.
It sort of resembles 2020/21, where the majority of the work was done in February/Spring Training (before the pandemic blew up).
It sort of resembles 2020/21, where the majority of the work was done in February/Spring Training (before the pandemic blew up).
January 29, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Offseason transaction pacing update. 2024/25 was on pace before the New Year, but things have gone dark.
It sort of resembles 2020/21, where the majority of the work was done in February/Spring Training (before the pandemic blew up).
It sort of resembles 2020/21, where the majority of the work was done in February/Spring Training (before the pandemic blew up).
Something new to the 2025 payroll sheet re: bonuses. A collapsible bonus projection section.
$13.65M is the maximum add'l salary if everything hits (plus Chapman's TBA $). I've conservatively estimated $3.9M for now. The majority is tied to Hendriks IP and GF (which have wide open outcomes).
$13.65M is the maximum add'l salary if everything hits (plus Chapman's TBA $). I've conservatively estimated $3.9M for now. The majority is tied to Hendriks IP and GF (which have wide open outcomes).
January 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Something new to the 2025 payroll sheet re: bonuses. A collapsible bonus projection section.
$13.65M is the maximum add'l salary if everything hits (plus Chapman's TBA $). I've conservatively estimated $3.9M for now. The majority is tied to Hendriks IP and GF (which have wide open outcomes).
$13.65M is the maximum add'l salary if everything hits (plus Chapman's TBA $). I've conservatively estimated $3.9M for now. The majority is tied to Hendriks IP and GF (which have wide open outcomes).
Sox current pen options & current FA relievers:
*Junis & Roberson look best on paper (fWAR) even at 50% of `24 results
*Almost no one else remaining moves the needle
*Bres/Bailey could like someone enough to tweak usage to get 200% fWAR projections but likely not a sexy name
*Junis & Roberson look best on paper (fWAR) even at 50% of `24 results
*Almost no one else remaining moves the needle
*Bres/Bailey could like someone enough to tweak usage to get 200% fWAR projections but likely not a sexy name
January 23, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Sox current pen options & current FA relievers:
*Junis & Roberson look best on paper (fWAR) even at 50% of `24 results
*Almost no one else remaining moves the needle
*Bres/Bailey could like someone enough to tweak usage to get 200% fWAR projections but likely not a sexy name
*Junis & Roberson look best on paper (fWAR) even at 50% of `24 results
*Almost no one else remaining moves the needle
*Bres/Bailey could like someone enough to tweak usage to get 200% fWAR projections but likely not a sexy name
Dustin Pedroia is my favorite player ever (I'm irrationally into his HOF sitch). Here's a rough 5yr outlook:
Orange highlight = top 10 JAWS guy
Blue highlight = High Profile/Favorite
Blue text = 1st yr on ballot
Tons of subjectivity here, but 2029 or 2030 is the target, if at all.
Orange highlight = top 10 JAWS guy
Blue highlight = High Profile/Favorite
Blue text = 1st yr on ballot
Tons of subjectivity here, but 2029 or 2030 is the target, if at all.
January 2, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Dustin Pedroia is my favorite player ever (I'm irrationally into his HOF sitch). Here's a rough 5yr outlook:
Orange highlight = top 10 JAWS guy
Blue highlight = High Profile/Favorite
Blue text = 1st yr on ballot
Tons of subjectivity here, but 2029 or 2030 is the target, if at all.
Orange highlight = top 10 JAWS guy
Blue highlight = High Profile/Favorite
Blue text = 1st yr on ballot
Tons of subjectivity here, but 2029 or 2030 is the target, if at all.
Updated a couple of Sox CBT docs:
They've spent 101% of the combined CBT 1st lines since Henry bought the team. They've paid a tax 11/22 times since its inception.
They've:
*Won the most WS (4)
*Paid a tax 2nd-most among all clubs
*Gone over 1x since 2020
*Seen the league "catch up" at the top
They've spent 101% of the combined CBT 1st lines since Henry bought the team. They've paid a tax 11/22 times since its inception.
They've:
*Won the most WS (4)
*Paid a tax 2nd-most among all clubs
*Gone over 1x since 2020
*Seen the league "catch up" at the top
December 26, 2024 at 8:14 PM
Updated a couple of Sox CBT docs:
They've spent 101% of the combined CBT 1st lines since Henry bought the team. They've paid a tax 11/22 times since its inception.
They've:
*Won the most WS (4)
*Paid a tax 2nd-most among all clubs
*Gone over 1x since 2020
*Seen the league "catch up" at the top
They've spent 101% of the combined CBT 1st lines since Henry bought the team. They've paid a tax 11/22 times since its inception.
They've:
*Won the most WS (4)
*Paid a tax 2nd-most among all clubs
*Gone over 1x since 2020
*Seen the league "catch up" at the top
Largest $$ guarantees for Red Sox SP in the last 25 years:
*Market inflation has jumped a lot in the last 20 years
*Every single name on this list got at least 1 title during the deal except Bello/Gio (in progress) and Eovaldi/Sale (signed after 2018 WS)
*Extensions > FA (Sale not withstanding)
*Market inflation has jumped a lot in the last 20 years
*Every single name on this list got at least 1 title during the deal except Bello/Gio (in progress) and Eovaldi/Sale (signed after 2018 WS)
*Extensions > FA (Sale not withstanding)
December 26, 2024 at 5:02 PM
Largest $$ guarantees for Red Sox SP in the last 25 years:
*Market inflation has jumped a lot in the last 20 years
*Every single name on this list got at least 1 title during the deal except Bello/Gio (in progress) and Eovaldi/Sale (signed after 2018 WS)
*Extensions > FA (Sale not withstanding)
*Market inflation has jumped a lot in the last 20 years
*Every single name on this list got at least 1 title during the deal except Bello/Gio (in progress) and Eovaldi/Sale (signed after 2018 WS)
*Extensions > FA (Sale not withstanding)
Post-xmas offseason pace check.
This year hasn't been slow compared to prior years by any means. It most resembles the winter of 22/23.
Overall, it illustrates the slog of the MLB hot stove these days. The visible Winter Meetings bump, surrounded by a long, cold winter of slow.
This year hasn't been slow compared to prior years by any means. It most resembles the winter of 22/23.
Overall, it illustrates the slog of the MLB hot stove these days. The visible Winter Meetings bump, surrounded by a long, cold winter of slow.
December 26, 2024 at 4:43 PM
Post-xmas offseason pace check.
This year hasn't been slow compared to prior years by any means. It most resembles the winter of 22/23.
Overall, it illustrates the slog of the MLB hot stove these days. The visible Winter Meetings bump, surrounded by a long, cold winter of slow.
This year hasn't been slow compared to prior years by any means. It most resembles the winter of 22/23.
Overall, it illustrates the slog of the MLB hot stove these days. The visible Winter Meetings bump, surrounded by a long, cold winter of slow.
Updated SP $$ chart:
*Everyone could be back in 2026
*Buehler will be eligible for a QO after 2025
*2027 and 2028 don't look great without Bello and/or Kutter taking big leaps or a Crochet extension
*A Crochet extension fits nicely in here particularly if you wrap in 25+26
*Everyone could be back in 2026
*Buehler will be eligible for a QO after 2025
*2027 and 2028 don't look great without Bello and/or Kutter taking big leaps or a Crochet extension
*A Crochet extension fits nicely in here particularly if you wrap in 25+26
December 26, 2024 at 4:39 PM
Updated SP $$ chart:
*Everyone could be back in 2026
*Buehler will be eligible for a QO after 2025
*2027 and 2028 don't look great without Bello and/or Kutter taking big leaps or a Crochet extension
*A Crochet extension fits nicely in here particularly if you wrap in 25+26
*Everyone could be back in 2026
*Buehler will be eligible for a QO after 2025
*2027 and 2028 don't look great without Bello and/or Kutter taking big leaps or a Crochet extension
*A Crochet extension fits nicely in here particularly if you wrap in 25+26
Red Sox starting pitcher payroll (2025-2029):
Free takeaways:
*Green = Arb projections
*Bello's deal is sick. All he needs to be is a 1-2 WAR player to justify that $ and he's put up 1.3/1.6/2.0 last 3 yrs.
*Crochet is cheap!
*Houck/Crawford are cheap!
*High-impact needed
Free takeaways:
*Green = Arb projections
*Bello's deal is sick. All he needs to be is a 1-2 WAR player to justify that $ and he's put up 1.3/1.6/2.0 last 3 yrs.
*Crochet is cheap!
*Houck/Crawford are cheap!
*High-impact needed
December 17, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Red Sox starting pitcher payroll (2025-2029):
Free takeaways:
*Green = Arb projections
*Bello's deal is sick. All he needs to be is a 1-2 WAR player to justify that $ and he's put up 1.3/1.6/2.0 last 3 yrs.
*Crochet is cheap!
*Houck/Crawford are cheap!
*High-impact needed
Free takeaways:
*Green = Arb projections
*Bello's deal is sick. All he needs to be is a 1-2 WAR player to justify that $ and he's put up 1.3/1.6/2.0 last 3 yrs.
*Crochet is cheap!
*Houck/Crawford are cheap!
*High-impact needed
Must-read. Lots of good nuggets clarifying/confirming info put out in the last few weeks, including:
*Henry asking for the "buy now price"
*Highest Red Sox offer
*Deferred money in Boston's offer
www.espn.com/mlb/insider/...
*Henry asking for the "buy now price"
*Highest Red Sox offer
*Deferred money in Boston's offer
www.espn.com/mlb/insider/...
December 12, 2024 at 5:42 PM
Must-read. Lots of good nuggets clarifying/confirming info put out in the last few weeks, including:
*Henry asking for the "buy now price"
*Highest Red Sox offer
*Deferred money in Boston's offer
www.espn.com/mlb/insider/...
*Henry asking for the "buy now price"
*Highest Red Sox offer
*Deferred money in Boston's offer
www.espn.com/mlb/insider/...
*Guaranteed* player salaries for the Red Sox 2026-2033 as folks try to understand the impact of Soto's potential $ on the future payroll.
This removes team options, arb, add'l money, pre-arb, etc - just to show that they're *locked in* to $-wise for a while.
Big drop after 2027.
This removes team options, arb, add'l money, pre-arb, etc - just to show that they're *locked in* to $-wise for a while.
Big drop after 2027.
December 5, 2024 at 6:30 PM
*Guaranteed* player salaries for the Red Sox 2026-2033 as folks try to understand the impact of Soto's potential $ on the future payroll.
This removes team options, arb, add'l money, pre-arb, etc - just to show that they're *locked in* to $-wise for a while.
Big drop after 2027.
This removes team options, arb, add'l money, pre-arb, etc - just to show that they're *locked in* to $-wise for a while.
Big drop after 2027.
Visual of the model with and without a small amount of deferred money.
1st CBT line is an aggressive estimate of future CBA agreements simply based on 14-year % growth since 2010.
1st CBT line is an aggressive estimate of future CBA agreements simply based on 14-year % growth since 2010.
December 5, 2024 at 5:53 PM
Visual of the model with and without a small amount of deferred money.
1st CBT line is an aggressive estimate of future CBA agreements simply based on 14-year % growth since 2010.
1st CBT line is an aggressive estimate of future CBA agreements simply based on 14-year % growth since 2010.