While recognition of Somaliland might stabilize one part of the Horn, it risks destabilizing others. The region’s future depends on how Somalia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and other players navigate this complex new dynamic.

The Horn of Africa is a hotbed of global competition. U.S. recognition of Somaliland could push China, Russia, and Gulf countries to deepen their partnerships with Somalia and Eritrea, intensifying geopolitical rivalries.

Somalia’s instability creates openings for Al-Shabaab. Recognition of Somaliland might push Al-Shabaab to exploit unrest in Somalia, making counterterrorism efforts more complex for regional and global players.

#Eritrea’s partnership with Egypt and Somalia could be tested. Will it align with Somaliland’s growing prominence, or will it stick to its pact with Somalia? Eritrea’s next move will shape the region’s balance of power.

Somaliland’s recognition could reshape Red Sea trade and security dynamics. The U.S. might establish military or trade facilities in Berbera, impacting Eritrea’s influence and potentially reducing China and Russia’s hold over the region.

For #Ethiopia, this is a win. Its existing ties with Somaliland include a 50-year lease for land access to the Berbera Port. Recognition would allow Ethiopia greater access to the Red Sea, bypassing Eritrea and boosting its regional power.

#Egypt has deep ties with #Somalia and #Eritrea through a defense pact aimed at countering #Ethiopia’s influence. Given its deep ties with Egypt, U.S. recognition of Somaliland creates complication by strengthening Ethiopia’s position while weakening Somalia.

The U.S. sees strategic value in Somaliland’s stability and location. The Berbera Port is a key gateway to the Red Sea, a vital trade route. Recognition would align with U.S. interests in countering China’s influence and securing maritime routes.