rational-discourse.bsky.social
@rational-discourse.bsky.social
Criticizing him is fine, I don't know much about him, but he sounded like an asshole.
I think the problem is celebrating his death as if it's a good thing ("good riddance") or he deserved it.
It may well be true, but that sort of rhetoric is inflammatory, and best avoided
September 12, 2025 at 3:14 PM
7\ The conspiracy and the origin aren't linked, except to the extent that a lab origin is a plausible motive for the proven illegal behavior
September 12, 2025 at 2:55 PM
6\ the lab origin hypothesis is well supported by scientific evidence.
Conspiracy is patent from emails, but only relates to individuals and their criminal behavior.
September 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM
5\ those in charge of funding this research broke record keeping laws, using burner phones and instructing others to delete emails that were at least peripheral to the origin

They also prompted papers dismissing a lab origin, and conspired to get ahead of the narrative
September 12, 2025 at 2:47 PM
4\ estimates for when it started spreading coincidence with when the lab restricted access to it's database, and when it's collaborator was due to file it's annual progress report (for the grant where they test determinants of spillover potential with live virus), but didn't
September 12, 2025 at 2:40 PM
3\
It's closest relatives come from where the lab sampled (not where there's any documented trade in wild animals with the place it spilled over)

Phylogenetics and modelling suggest a single spillover, atypical for zoonoses, but expected of a lab origin
September 12, 2025 at 2:36 PM
2\
It's spike was 24-25% divergent for SC1.
They were testing that 25% divergent was the spillover threshold - although they gave 3 different reasons for how they arrived at this number

It had an FCS (the only known SARSr-CoV to have one), and they had proposed adding one.
September 12, 2025 at 2:33 PM
8\ mutations, and then to develop one specific reversion mutation, which is less parsimonious and entirely unconvincing
March 4, 2025 at 8:29 AM
7\ intermediate genomes described in Lv 2024 are reversions, but the basic argument is simply that they are from February, not December, and that requires too long of a time with no additional mutations, while ignoring that the alternate scenario requires an A or B genome to persist with no other
March 4, 2025 at 8:29 AM
6\ there are the intermediate genomes, many of which they simply discard on entirely subjective grounds, which if applied equally would also discard their precious very low quality A sequence from a glove found at the market after sampling.
I am aware that they have a preprint to argue that the
March 4, 2025 at 8:27 AM
5\ are multiple A and B genomes from humans with no additional mutations other than the basal A and basal B sequences, indicating that the spread of A and B in humans began basal to the polytomies described in pekar 2022, which is inconsistent with them being generated in animals, on top of that
March 4, 2025 at 8:26 AM
4\ The polytomies are all very short branches, equally long branches were observed on the Diamond princess outbreak, which had much higher ascertainment rates than what was seen early in the pandemic.

Any polytomy is easily explainable by poor ascertainment, but it gets worse than this, as there
March 4, 2025 at 8:24 AM
3\ of ad hominem attacks, a path taken by far to many of his colleagues and coauthors. McGowan was not commenting no anything else other than the improper modelling and uneven constraints.

But as to the other evidence presented in Pekar 2022, it comes down basically to the model, and to polytomies
March 4, 2025 at 8:22 AM
2\ sized clades separated by 2nts. Only a subset of such spillovers would. It is completely invalid to apply this constraint to the single spillover model but not the double spillover model. Even some of your staunchest supporters such as Débarre concede this.
Andersen then takes the dishonest path
March 4, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Reposted
Nice image from Gilles Demaneuf on Twitter

x.com/gdemaneuf/st...
February 28, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Also, it's literally within the scope of a funded grant that the same group had
December 8, 2024 at 11:13 AM
4\ We need better #SciComm🧪 from Nature, and others
December 6, 2024 at 8:38 AM
3\ This seems to be simply a case of repeating garbage over and over to try to get people to believe it.

There is no evidence of animals infected *with SARS-CoV-2* at the market.
There is clear evidence that they were infected with other, not relevant, viruses
December 6, 2024 at 8:36 AM
2\ The previous paper by this group failed to show colocalization between elevated SARS-CoV-2 reads/"positivity risk", and produced data confirming wildlife were locally caught (not from areas where SARS-CoV-2's relatives are found), yet tried to spin this as supporting infection by SARS-CoV-2
December 6, 2024 at 8:33 AM
Cohen appears to be a biased party here and gives a very biased presentation of the facts.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xh0...
The origin of Covid-19, part 1: Evidence for and against an origin at the wet market
YouTube video by KerikBalm
www.youtube.com
December 3, 2024 at 11:40 AM
The non-wet market origin of SARS-CoV-2
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xh0...
The origin of Covid-19, part 1: Evidence for and against an origin at the wet market
YouTube video by KerikBalm
www.youtube.com
December 3, 2024 at 11:39 AM