Mente selvfølgelig 2014…

Men højeste valgdeltagelse siden 2024 dog!

Enig - tror håbet fra EUs side er, at man kan nå at få forhandlet medlemskab på plads inden næste parlamentsvalg i 2029. Gevinsterne herved vil så forhåbentlig overbevise befolkningen. Men man kan ikke undgå, at Moldova kan ende som et fremtidigt “Ungarn” i EU.

Helt bestemt. Man kan imidlertid bruge dem til at forstå udviklinger og trends over tid.

I hvert fald i nogle kontekster. Her tror jeg særligt at det post-sovjetiske rum kan være sværere at forudsige.

Du har ret i, at det udnyttes af opposition eller fremmede aktører (læs: Rusland), og det gør det. Heldigvis er der en ret god forklaring på forskellen og dermed usikkerheden ved meningsmålinger: Nemlig fraværet af diaspora- og transnistriske vælgere + høj andel af uafklarede.

🇬🇧: Parl. elections in Moldova – PAS regains majority in parliament. Quite surprisingly, and against most forecasts (including my own), PAS appears to have secured enough seats to keep its single-party government. High turnout in Chisinau and the diaspora decided the outcome.

🇬🇧: PAS currently stands to win 49 out of 101 seats. Thus the party is just two seats short of securing a majority. The high number of seats relative to vote share is due to surplus votes (from parties that fail to enter parliament) being redistributed among the remaining ones.

🇬🇧: The party supported a “yes” in last year’s EU-referendum.

🇬🇧: The big surprise in 🇲🇩, according to preliminary results, appears to be the populist (partly pro-European) party PPDA. In 2021, the party received only 1.45% of the vote and did not enter parliament. It could become a game-changer for PAS in terms of forming a government.

🇩🇰: Partiet bakkede op om et “ja” til EU-folkeafstemningen sidste år.

🇬🇧: First results from 🇲🇩. NOTE: Take them with a grain of salt. Mainly small rural polling stations have been counted so far, which tends to favor pro-Russian parties. We saw the same pattern in last year’s elections, when Chisinau and the diaspora ended up changing everything.

Polling stations have now closed in 🇲🇩. Voter turnout ≈ 52% — the highest since 2014. Polling stations abroad remain open until 21:00 Moldovan local time. Turnout appears significant both among the diaspora and in Chisinau, but low in Transnistria — meaning good news for PAS.

🇬🇧: Another observation, also positive for PAS, is the low turnout in Transnistria, where only about 11,000 voters have cast their ballots (out of roughly 275,000). Historical patterns and political apathy outweigh Russian influence operations and pressure.

PARL. ELECTION 🇲🇩

Not much to say yet about the election in Moldova. One interesting observation, however, is turnout, which so far closely resembles the 2024 elections at this point in the day. The only difference – positive for PAS – is higher participation among the diaspora