Not even much evidence for long-run polarization is there?

At least in Crandall and Lawlor 2022, the Conservative/Liberal difference is basically the same in 2019 as 2008.

Partisanship matters, and Harper years are a bump, but its episodic rather than continuing to grow over time.

Love to see our beautiful wildlife on @utm.utoronto.ca campus

This an interesting phrasing from the Minister of Indigenous services.

"Canadians and Indigenous peoples" echoes a common phrasing "Canadians and Quebecers" used by Quebec nationalist politicians as a way of emphasizing that these are two separate groups of peoples.

Another example of universities corrupting our youth 🤣

Funny to read older work - lack of attention to causality, hardly any confidence intervals, focus on class, etc.

Quite the clapback in a footnote by Pinard here though:

Totally forgot that Converse 1964 include a discussion of ideology and mass support of the Nazi party!

Now with interrupted time series analysis.

None of this "turnout just keeps going down because of bowling alone" or something. Looks to me like it just went down once, due to end of door-knocking to make the electors lists.

Here is a fun chart: turnout over time.

Contrary to popular wisdom, there is no long slow decline. In fact, there is a single, permeant step down in 2000.

I'm pretty sure I know why, but surely someone has published on this before?

The Chaisemartin and D’Haultfœuille estimator also shows Conservative minority candidates get about 2% less of the vote than White candidates.

For other (left) parties, there is no evidence of discrimination.

We examine seven (!) elections (2004-2021), 5000+ candidates.

First, “traditional” diff-in-diff. There is (some) evidence of electoral discrimination.

But its small, and not always significant.

Interestingly, switching back from minority to a White candidate leads to an increase in votes.