Donald Trump waiting for his Wile E. Coyote / Liz Truss moment

World Uncertainty Index has more than doubled since Trump won election in November. March’s reading is the third highest of the monthly series.Expect April 2025 to be a new record high in uncertainty.

World Uncertainty Index doubled between November 2024 and February 2025. February’s reading is its highest since March 2020 when the pandemic 😷 came to the fore. Data for March expected to surge to a series high following the post-Zelensky & Trump Oval Office encounter

N.Ireland is the only region to report rising employment levels in December. The UK PMI highlights a slump in employment levels in recent months. The lack of new orders is seeing a rapid depletion in outstanding work (backlogs). Supply chain delivery times lengthened in Dec too

N.Ireland’s private sector had topped the regional growth charts until October. Tailwind from the Republic of Ireland’s economy has been beneficial. New orders fell in Dec-24 for the second month running (47.3) & export orders fell at their quickest pace (39) in 2 years.

Like most other UK regions, N.Ireland’s private sector reported a decline in business activity for the first time in 13 months. December’s reading of 47.7 was below the 50.0 expansion/ contraction threshold. @SPGlobalPMI
9 of the 12 UK regions posted a fall in output in Dec-24

Over 15% of 50-69 year olds in Northern Ireland have a co-resident ‘child’ aged 25-34 living with them. Data for 2017-2020 predates ‘housing emergency’ so would be higher now.

Interesting report issued by The IFS today. “Hotel of Mum and Dad? Co-residence with parents among those aged 25-34”.
N.Ireland has the highest share of co-residence with parents in the UK at 23%. Clearly the housing emergency 🚨 in NI (soaring rents & lack of supply) is a factor

N.Ireland Growth Tracker (PMI) by sector. 👇
Services sector remains largely immune from the economic slowdown with retail being hit particularly hard.
Manufacturing output growth was marginal (50.4) while Services activity remained very strong (59.5).

NI firms’ staffing levels (50.8) rose at their weakest pace in 9 months.But NI was one of 5 UK regions to report employment growth in November with 7 reporting a decline in headcount.Meanwhile the recent buildup of backlogs of work is now unwinding with steepest decline in 10mths

NI firms saw an increase 📈 in input cost inflation (remember NLW & employers NICs increases don’t hit until April-25) to a 5 mth high of 61.7. Output prices (of goods & services) rose at their fastest pace in 18mths (56.4).NI saw the steepest rise in selling prices within the UK

N.Ireland’s private sector hit a speed bump in November according to Ulster Bank Growth Tracker (PMI). All indicators of business conditions deteriorated relative to October.Output / employment growth slowed, new orders / export orders fell & inflationary pressures accelerated 👇

An enjoyable day spreading the economic and fiscal word in Templepatrick. Thanks to Debbie Connolly for the invite to speak at the Personal Finance Society NI event.