Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
@rahmstorf.bsky.social
Climate scientist, professor of Physics of the Oceans in Potsdam. Opinions my own.
Am Freitag könnt ihr die vielen Menschen unterstützen, die sich derzeit beim Klimagipfel #COP30 in Belém für unsere Zukunft einsetzen - und auch ein Signal an die Bundesregierung senden. Jede Verzögerung von Klimaschutz kostet viel Geld, Glaubwürdigkeit, Menschenleben, Zukunft.
November 10, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Am Freitag könnt ihr die vielen Menschen unterstützen, die sich derzeit beim Klimagipfel #COP30 in Belém für unsere Zukunft einsetzen - und auch ein Signal an die Bundesregierung senden. Jede Verzögerung von Klimaschutz kostet viel Geld, Glaubwürdigkeit, Menschenleben, Zukunft.
Today the 2025 State of the Cryosphere report was published by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists.
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
November 6, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Today the 2025 State of the Cryosphere report was published by over 50 leading cryosphere scientists.
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
An urgent warning about the global consequences of the meltdown of ice, including the risk of shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC. 🌊
iccinet.org/statecryo25/
New study in Nature by Lin et al shows how the sea-level rise from the melting Ice Age ice (a total of 120 meters rise) ended thousands of years ago.
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 3, 2025 at 12:09 PM
New study in Nature by Lin et al shows how the sea-level rise from the melting Ice Age ice (a total of 120 meters rise) ended thousands of years ago.
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Until our fossil fuel use started a new phase of rising seas.
Graph shows the global mean rate of sea level rise.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Extended hurricane category scale, following Wehner&Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy 2024: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
November 2, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Extended hurricane category scale, following Wehner&Kossin, Proceedings of the National Academy 2024: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
If that scale didn't stop at Category 5 for historic reasons, we would have had several Category 6 tropical cyclones since year 2000.
One striking result is that the dangers of the dramatic decline in natural ecosystems and biodiversity (in oceans and on land) are not widely recognised by the general public, and I would say are still underestimated by the experts. We all ultimately depend on a functioning biosphere.
October 31, 2025 at 9:57 AM
One striking result is that the dangers of the dramatic decline in natural ecosystems and biodiversity (in oceans and on land) are not widely recognised by the general public, and I would say are still underestimated by the experts. We all ultimately depend on a functioning biosphere.
AXA and Ipsos have published the 12th edition of the Future Risks Report, a report based on a global survey of 23,000 citizens and 3,595 risk experts.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
October 31, 2025 at 9:41 AM
AXA and Ipsos have published the 12th edition of the Future Risks Report, a report based on a global survey of 23,000 citizens and 3,595 risk experts.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
What do both experts and citizens rank as greates risk?
*** Climate change ***
So do I, after over 35 years experience in climate science.
I could not resist to query further. First it invents a doi link, claiming that one is correct. Then it claims it actually meant the 2018 IPCC report - mind you, my original query was whether ChatGPT can point me to literature criticising a study published in 2021. It could have answered: Sorry, no.
October 30, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I could not resist to query further. First it invents a doi link, claiming that one is correct. Then it claims it actually meant the 2018 IPCC report - mind you, my original query was whether ChatGPT can point me to literature criticising a study published in 2021. It could have answered: Sorry, no.
ChatGPT cited a paper of mine which I did not know existed, so I asked it for the link to it.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
October 30, 2025 at 11:11 AM
ChatGPT cited a paper of mine which I did not know existed, so I asked it for the link to it.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
Unfortunately that link to the Nature website just gave a "Page not found".
So sad.
Here’s a reminder how closely the sea-surface temperature response to an #AMOC slowing matches what is actually observed in the past decades in the Atlantic.
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
October 23, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Here’s a reminder how closely the sea-surface temperature response to an #AMOC slowing matches what is actually observed in the past decades in the Atlantic.
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
More on that here: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
The floating French Tara Polar Research Station in Reykjavik harbor.
October 17, 2025 at 8:30 PM
The floating French Tara Polar Research Station in Reykjavik harbor.
Obama‘s former science advisor John Holdren speaking right now on the threats to the future of science through demagoguery, misinformation and autocratic leaders. #ArcticCircle
October 17, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Obama‘s former science advisor John Holdren speaking right now on the threats to the future of science through demagoguery, misinformation and autocratic leaders. #ArcticCircle
„This is a national security issue!“ says Dame Angela McLean, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, about the collapse risk of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
October 17, 2025 at 9:20 AM
„This is a national security issue!“ says Dame Angela McLean, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, about the collapse risk of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
Good discussion this morning at the #ArcticCircle Assembly on the risk of pushing the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC beyond a dangerous tipping point. The Icelandic government considers that a serious national security threat for Iceland. 🌊
October 16, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Good discussion this morning at the #ArcticCircle Assembly on the risk of pushing the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC beyond a dangerous tipping point. The Icelandic government considers that a serious national security threat for Iceland. 🌊
Covid is raising its ugly head again. Glad I already have the updated vaccination, before traveling to the Arctic Circle Assembly next week!
October 11, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Covid is raising its ugly head again. Glad I already have the updated vaccination, before traveling to the Arctic Circle Assembly next week!
In reality, the prevailing view of climate science has always been to expect global warming, and warming has been predicted correctly since we have numerical climate models. See e.g. www.realclimate.org/index.php/cl...
October 7, 2025 at 4:38 PM
In reality, the prevailing view of climate science has always been to expect global warming, and warming has been predicted correctly since we have numerical climate models. See e.g. www.realclimate.org/index.php/cl...
I'm just preparing a talk on climate disinformation. Because Trump used it in his UN speech, I'm including the old story of the forged Time Magazine cover, supposedly showing that climate scientists predicted a coming Ice Age.
"Climate sceptics" don't have honest arguments so resort to fake news.
"Climate sceptics" don't have honest arguments so resort to fake news.
October 7, 2025 at 4:38 PM
I'm just preparing a talk on climate disinformation. Because Trump used it in his UN speech, I'm including the old story of the forged Time Magazine cover, supposedly showing that climate scientists predicted a coming Ice Age.
"Climate sceptics" don't have honest arguments so resort to fake news.
"Climate sceptics" don't have honest arguments so resort to fake news.
Vox understands color psychology. Fire=red.
October 3, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Vox understands color psychology. Fire=red.
Die Karte zeigt: welche Gebiete haben sich seit dem 19. Jh. mehr und welche weniger als der Durchschnitt erwärmt.
Das entspricht dem, was Klimamodelle vorhergesagt haben: Meere erwärmen sich langsamer.
Man sieht auch die Kälteblase im Nordatlantik durch die Abschwächung der Atlantikströmung #AMOC.
Das entspricht dem, was Klimamodelle vorhergesagt haben: Meere erwärmen sich langsamer.
Man sieht auch die Kälteblase im Nordatlantik durch die Abschwächung der Atlantikströmung #AMOC.
September 27, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Die Karte zeigt: welche Gebiete haben sich seit dem 19. Jh. mehr und welche weniger als der Durchschnitt erwärmt.
Das entspricht dem, was Klimamodelle vorhergesagt haben: Meere erwärmen sich langsamer.
Man sieht auch die Kälteblase im Nordatlantik durch die Abschwächung der Atlantikströmung #AMOC.
Das entspricht dem, was Klimamodelle vorhergesagt haben: Meere erwärmen sich langsamer.
Man sieht auch die Kälteblase im Nordatlantik durch die Abschwächung der Atlantikströmung #AMOC.
Die Deutschen Meteorologischen und Physikalischen Gesellschaften warnen: "Bereits bis 2050
besteht das Risiko einer Erwärmung um 3 Grad."
Manche Medien machen daraus: Klimaforscher widersprechen sich. Aber schon der IPCC-Bericht warnte bei mittleren Emissionen vor bis zu 3 Grad, bei hohen bis 3,4.
besteht das Risiko einer Erwärmung um 3 Grad."
Manche Medien machen daraus: Klimaforscher widersprechen sich. Aber schon der IPCC-Bericht warnte bei mittleren Emissionen vor bis zu 3 Grad, bei hohen bis 3,4.
September 26, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Die Deutschen Meteorologischen und Physikalischen Gesellschaften warnen: "Bereits bis 2050
besteht das Risiko einer Erwärmung um 3 Grad."
Manche Medien machen daraus: Klimaforscher widersprechen sich. Aber schon der IPCC-Bericht warnte bei mittleren Emissionen vor bis zu 3 Grad, bei hohen bis 3,4.
besteht das Risiko einer Erwärmung um 3 Grad."
Manche Medien machen daraus: Klimaforscher widersprechen sich. Aber schon der IPCC-Bericht warnte bei mittleren Emissionen vor bis zu 3 Grad, bei hohen bis 3,4.
Trump spreading fossil fuel propaganda lies at the UN - what an embarrassing president for the US.
September 23, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Trump spreading fossil fuel propaganda lies at the UN - what an embarrassing president for the US.
One of many many climate protests around the world today: in Potsdam with Luisa Neubauer!
September 20, 2025 at 1:07 PM
One of many many climate protests around the world today: in Potsdam with Luisa Neubauer!