Rafael Izbicki
@rafael-izbicki.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at UFSCar | @CMU_Stats PhD | Statistics | Machine Learning | Data Science | @CNPq_Oficial Research Fellow | Dad
https://rafaelizbicki.com/
https://rafaelizbicki.com/
Reposted by Rafael Izbicki
✨ We kicked off a new season of talks, the AI FUN with ELLIS Invited Speaker Lecture series, brought to you by the Centre for AI FUNdamentals and the #ELLIS Unit at Manchester 🐝
The 1️⃣st talk was given by our guest speaker Rafael Izbicki (@rafael-izbicki.bsky.social) from UFSCar in Brazil 🇧🇷
The 1️⃣st talk was given by our guest speaker Rafael Izbicki (@rafael-izbicki.bsky.social) from UFSCar in Brazil 🇧🇷
September 4, 2025 at 9:45 AM
✨ We kicked off a new season of talks, the AI FUN with ELLIS Invited Speaker Lecture series, brought to you by the Centre for AI FUNdamentals and the #ELLIS Unit at Manchester 🐝
The 1️⃣st talk was given by our guest speaker Rafael Izbicki (@rafael-izbicki.bsky.social) from UFSCar in Brazil 🇧🇷
The 1️⃣st talk was given by our guest speaker Rafael Izbicki (@rafael-izbicki.bsky.social) from UFSCar in Brazil 🇧🇷
🦟 Our new paper is out in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases! We use Google Trends + surveillance data to improve nowcasting of dengue in Brazil.
W/ the great Y. Xiao, G. Soares, L. Bastos & P. Moraga.
🔗 journals.plos.org/plosntds/art...
Online Tracker: diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
W/ the great Y. Xiao, G. Soares, L. Bastos & P. Moraga.
🔗 journals.plos.org/plosntds/art...
Online Tracker: diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information
Author summary Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that poses significant public health challenges in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Surveillance systems are crucial for dengue prev...
journals.plos.org
August 20, 2025 at 12:24 PM
🦟 Our new paper is out in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases! We use Google Trends + surveillance data to improve nowcasting of dengue in Brazil.
W/ the great Y. Xiao, G. Soares, L. Bastos & P. Moraga.
🔗 journals.plos.org/plosntds/art...
Online Tracker: diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
W/ the great Y. Xiao, G. Soares, L. Bastos & P. Moraga.
🔗 journals.plos.org/plosntds/art...
Online Tracker: diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
Interested in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes and conditional density estimators?
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI #DataScience #ConformalPrediction
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI #DataScience #ConformalPrediction
August 7, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Interested in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes and conditional density estimators?
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI #DataScience #ConformalPrediction
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI #DataScience #ConformalPrediction
📢 New on Medium: My Paper Was Outdated Before It Was Published
Submitted. Waited. Rejected. Revised. Accepted.
By then, 50+ citations and 1k GitHub stars. The field had moved on.
Thoughts on fixing peer review in fast-moving fields:
🔗 rizbicki.medium.com/my-paper-was...
#PeerReview
Submitted. Waited. Rejected. Revised. Accepted.
By then, 50+ citations and 1k GitHub stars. The field had moved on.
Thoughts on fixing peer review in fast-moving fields:
🔗 rizbicki.medium.com/my-paper-was...
#PeerReview
August 6, 2025 at 11:39 PM
📢 New on Medium: My Paper Was Outdated Before It Was Published
Submitted. Waited. Rejected. Revised. Accepted.
By then, 50+ citations and 1k GitHub stars. The field had moved on.
Thoughts on fixing peer review in fast-moving fields:
🔗 rizbicki.medium.com/my-paper-was...
#PeerReview
Submitted. Waited. Rejected. Revised. Accepted.
By then, 50+ citations and 1k GitHub stars. The field had moved on.
Thoughts on fixing peer review in fast-moving fields:
🔗 rizbicki.medium.com/my-paper-was...
#PeerReview
Reposted by Rafael Izbicki
What if you could beat the Likelihood Ratio Test?
A fun and potentially transformational phy-statistics paper with Ann Lee, James Carzon, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social, luca Masserano and @danielwhiteson.bsky.social
arxiv.org/abs/2507.17831
A fun and potentially transformational phy-statistics paper with Ann Lee, James Carzon, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social, luca Masserano and @danielwhiteson.bsky.social
arxiv.org/abs/2507.17831
On Focusing Statistical Power for Searches and Measurements in Particle Physics
Particle physics experiments rely on the (generalised) likelihood ratio test (LRT) for searches and measurements, which consist of composite hypothesis tests. However, this test is not guaranteed to b...
arxiv.org
July 28, 2025 at 7:02 AM
What if you could beat the Likelihood Ratio Test?
A fun and potentially transformational phy-statistics paper with Ann Lee, James Carzon, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social, luca Masserano and @danielwhiteson.bsky.social
arxiv.org/abs/2507.17831
A fun and potentially transformational phy-statistics paper with Ann Lee, James Carzon, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social, luca Masserano and @danielwhiteson.bsky.social
arxiv.org/abs/2507.17831
Reposted by Rafael Izbicki
Big news—our paper was accepted for oral presentation at #UAI2025! 🥳
We (me + Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R Ramos, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social ) built EPICSCORE, a method to improve conformal prediction intervals by adding epistemic uncertainty awareness.
Here’s why it matters 🧵
We (me + Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R Ramos, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social ) built EPICSCORE, a method to improve conformal prediction intervals by adding epistemic uncertainty awareness.
Here’s why it matters 🧵
May 7, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Big news—our paper was accepted for oral presentation at #UAI2025! 🥳
We (me + Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R Ramos, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social ) built EPICSCORE, a method to improve conformal prediction intervals by adding epistemic uncertainty awareness.
Here’s why it matters 🧵
We (me + Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R Ramos, @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social ) built EPICSCORE, a method to improve conformal prediction intervals by adding epistemic uncertainty awareness.
Here’s why it matters 🧵
Reposted by Rafael Izbicki
Interesed in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes, and conditional density estimators?
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
February 14, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Interesed in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes, and conditional density estimators?
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
Interesed in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes, and conditional density estimators?
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
February 14, 2025 at 11:34 PM
Interesed in uncertainty quantification methods such as conformal prediction, Gaussian processes, and conditional density estimators?
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
You can now get a physical copy of my book on Amazon!
📖 amazon.com/Machine-Lear...
#MachineLearning #UncertaintyQuantification #AI
Aparentemente esse ano será um caos em São Paulo em relação à dengue novamente.
Mais estimativas em diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
#dengue #epi #epidemiology
Mais estimativas em diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
#dengue #epi #epidemiology
January 22, 2025 at 12:58 AM
Aparentemente esse ano será um caos em São Paulo em relação à dengue novamente.
Mais estimativas em diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
#dengue #epi #epidemiology
Mais estimativas em diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-track...
#dengue #epi #epidemiology
🕮 New Book Release! 😀
Happy to share my new book, Machine Learning Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty Quantification.
Tools to tackle aleatoric & epistemic uncertainties in AI. +
Happy to share my new book, Machine Learning Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty Quantification.
Tools to tackle aleatoric & epistemic uncertainties in AI. +
January 20, 2025 at 1:13 PM
🕮 New Book Release! 😀
Happy to share my new book, Machine Learning Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty Quantification.
Tools to tackle aleatoric & epistemic uncertainties in AI. +
Happy to share my new book, Machine Learning Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty Quantification.
Tools to tackle aleatoric & epistemic uncertainties in AI. +
É absurdo como muitos dos divulgadores científicos simplesmente pararam de cobrar vacinas quando o novo governo assumiu.
Estamos faz meses tentando dar uma dose de vacina de covid para minha filha, mas está sempre em falta. Idem para idosos.
Estamos faz meses tentando dar uma dose de vacina de covid para minha filha, mas está sempre em falta. Idem para idosos.
December 18, 2024 at 12:28 PM
É absurdo como muitos dos divulgadores científicos simplesmente pararam de cobrar vacinas quando o novo governo assumiu.
Estamos faz meses tentando dar uma dose de vacina de covid para minha filha, mas está sempre em falta. Idem para idosos.
Estamos faz meses tentando dar uma dose de vacina de covid para minha filha, mas está sempre em falta. Idem para idosos.
🌳 New paper! Led by Denis Valle, we present a nonparametric approach to quantify uncertainty in multistep upscaling models. We illustrate our methods for forest biomass predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. +
#RemoteSensing #MachineLearning #ForestBiomass
#RemoteSensing #MachineLearning #ForestBiomass
December 17, 2024 at 4:01 PM
🌳 New paper! Led by Denis Valle, we present a nonparametric approach to quantify uncertainty in multistep upscaling models. We illustrate our methods for forest biomass predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. +
#RemoteSensing #MachineLearning #ForestBiomass
#RemoteSensing #MachineLearning #ForestBiomass
Reposted by Rafael Izbicki
I am happy to announce that a paper of mine, Rafael B. Stern and @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social has been accepted for publication at the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 🎉
In our paper, we show how to build and test hypotheses of practical equivalence in nonparametric settings. 🧵
In our paper, we show how to build and test hypotheses of practical equivalence in nonparametric settings. 🧵
December 9, 2024 at 3:38 PM
I am happy to announce that a paper of mine, Rafael B. Stern and @rafael-izbicki.bsky.social has been accepted for publication at the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 🎉
In our paper, we show how to build and test hypotheses of practical equivalence in nonparametric settings. 🧵
In our paper, we show how to build and test hypotheses of practical equivalence in nonparametric settings. 🧵
Excited to announce our new publication!
Our paper, "Likelihood-free frequentist inference: bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference," is now in EJS!
Co-authored with the great N Dalmasso, @lucamasse95
, D Zhao, and A B Lee. +
Our paper, "Likelihood-free frequentist inference: bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference," is now in EJS!
Co-authored with the great N Dalmasso, @lucamasse95
, D Zhao, and A B Lee. +
December 4, 2024 at 2:10 PM
Excited to announce our new publication!
Our paper, "Likelihood-free frequentist inference: bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference," is now in EJS!
Co-authored with the great N Dalmasso, @lucamasse95
, D Zhao, and A B Lee. +
Our paper, "Likelihood-free frequentist inference: bridging classical statistics and machine learning for reliable simulator-based inference," is now in EJS!
Co-authored with the great N Dalmasso, @lucamasse95
, D Zhao, and A B Lee. +
No dia 25/11, eu, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos e Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas daremos uma série de seminários no Programa de Pós-Graduação do Dept. de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia da FMRP USP. Mais informações: lnkd.in/dps4mHDU
October 22, 2024 at 3:38 PM
No dia 25/11, eu, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos e Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas daremos uma série de seminários no Programa de Pós-Graduação do Dept. de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia da FMRP USP. Mais informações: lnkd.in/dps4mHDU
Stop oversampling! Changing the cutoff in probabilistic classifiers is enough for imbalanced data.
In our new paper, Gabriel O. Assunção, Marcos O. Prates, and I explore this in depth. jds-online.org/journal/JDS/...
#DataScience #MachineLearning #ImbalancedData #AI #Oversampling
In our new paper, Gabriel O. Assunção, Marcos O. Prates, and I explore this in depth. jds-online.org/journal/JDS/...
#DataScience #MachineLearning #ImbalancedData #AI #Oversampling
October 16, 2024 at 4:25 PM
Stop oversampling! Changing the cutoff in probabilistic classifiers is enough for imbalanced data.
In our new paper, Gabriel O. Assunção, Marcos O. Prates, and I explore this in depth. jds-online.org/journal/JDS/...
#DataScience #MachineLearning #ImbalancedData #AI #Oversampling
In our new paper, Gabriel O. Assunção, Marcos O. Prates, and I explore this in depth. jds-online.org/journal/JDS/...
#DataScience #MachineLearning #ImbalancedData #AI #Oversampling
📢 Tarde Temática: Inferência, Redes e IA no dia 25/10 no CINA-UFSCar!
Palestras com @franciscorodrigues.bsky.social (ICMC-USP), Pedro L. C. Rodrigues (Inria) e Heloísa Camargo (DC-UFSCar).
Saiba mais: rafaelizbicki.com/tematico_ia/
#InteligenciaArtificial #Redes #Simulação #DataScience
Palestras com @franciscorodrigues.bsky.social (ICMC-USP), Pedro L. C. Rodrigues (Inria) e Heloísa Camargo (DC-UFSCar).
Saiba mais: rafaelizbicki.com/tematico_ia/
#InteligenciaArtificial #Redes #Simulação #DataScience
October 10, 2024 at 11:09 AM
📢 Tarde Temática: Inferência, Redes e IA no dia 25/10 no CINA-UFSCar!
Palestras com @franciscorodrigues.bsky.social (ICMC-USP), Pedro L. C. Rodrigues (Inria) e Heloísa Camargo (DC-UFSCar).
Saiba mais: rafaelizbicki.com/tematico_ia/
#InteligenciaArtificial #Redes #Simulação #DataScience
Palestras com @franciscorodrigues.bsky.social (ICMC-USP), Pedro L. C. Rodrigues (Inria) e Heloísa Camargo (DC-UFSCar).
Saiba mais: rafaelizbicki.com/tematico_ia/
#InteligenciaArtificial #Redes #Simulação #DataScience
Tá insuportável isso aqui. O mais triste é que passaram a semana dizendo que hoje ia esfriar um monte.
October 2, 2024 at 1:44 PM
Tá insuportável isso aqui. O mais triste é que passaram a semana dizendo que hoje ia esfriar um monte.
Ran my text through ChatGPT arguing why oversampling usually doesn’t make sense, and it flipped my argument to support oversampling instead. A reminder that AI often defaults to consensus—even when it's wrong. Always double-check!
#AI #MachineLearning #Statistics
#AI #MachineLearning #Statistics
September 21, 2024 at 11:38 AM
Ran my text through ChatGPT arguing why oversampling usually doesn’t make sense, and it flipped my argument to support oversampling instead. A reminder that AI often defaults to consensus—even when it's wrong. Always double-check!
#AI #MachineLearning #Statistics
#AI #MachineLearning #Statistics
Does not exist
September 17, 2024 at 9:05 PM
Does not exist
Estão abertas as inscrições para o Concurso Público para Professor Efetivo no Depto de Estatística da UFSCar! Inscrições até 11/10/2024
São Carlos é um polo de inovação e pesquisa, com excelente qualidade de vida. + info: concursos.ufscar.br
#concurso #estatistica #datascience #machinelearning
São Carlos é um polo de inovação e pesquisa, com excelente qualidade de vida. + info: concursos.ufscar.br
#concurso #estatistica #datascience #machinelearning
September 16, 2024 at 11:47 PM
Estão abertas as inscrições para o Concurso Público para Professor Efetivo no Depto de Estatística da UFSCar! Inscrições até 11/10/2024
São Carlos é um polo de inovação e pesquisa, com excelente qualidade de vida. + info: concursos.ufscar.br
#concurso #estatistica #datascience #machinelearning
São Carlos é um polo de inovação e pesquisa, com excelente qualidade de vida. + info: concursos.ufscar.br
#concurso #estatistica #datascience #machinelearning
O PIPGEs (UFSCar/USP) está com inscrições abertas para mestrado (até 21/10) e doutorado (até 14/10). Bolsas disponíveis e oportunidades de tutoria e monitoria. Linhas de pesquisa: Machine Learning, Inferência, Probabilidade e Modelos de Regressão. + info: tinyurl.com/pipges2024 #posgrad
September 12, 2024 at 4:51 PM
O PIPGEs (UFSCar/USP) está com inscrições abertas para mestrado (até 21/10) e doutorado (até 14/10). Bolsas disponíveis e oportunidades de tutoria e monitoria. Linhas de pesquisa: Machine Learning, Inferência, Probabilidade e Modelos de Regressão. + info: tinyurl.com/pipges2024 #posgrad
Does anyone know of open data sources for air quality across different regions of Brazil?
Weather forecasting websites show current conditions, but is this data being stored anywhere for future use?
#Weather #AirQuality #OpenData #Environment #Statistics #Brazil
Weather forecasting websites show current conditions, but is this data being stored anywhere for future use?
#Weather #AirQuality #OpenData #Environment #Statistics #Brazil
September 5, 2024 at 10:41 AM
Does anyone know of open data sources for air quality across different regions of Brazil?
Weather forecasting websites show current conditions, but is this data being stored anywhere for future use?
#Weather #AirQuality #OpenData #Environment #Statistics #Brazil
Weather forecasting websites show current conditions, but is this data being stored anywhere for future use?
#Weather #AirQuality #OpenData #Environment #Statistics #Brazil
Statisticians at BlueSky
I'll list some people I follow and that posted stuff recently:
@jordannafa.bsky.social @skewed.de @stephenjwild.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social @alexpghayes.bsky.social @datavisfriendly.bsky.social @chelseaparlett.bsky.social @statsepi.bsky.social @karlrohe.bsky.social @solomonkurz.bsky.social
@jordannafa.bsky.social @skewed.de @stephenjwild.bsky.social @avehtari.bsky.social @alexpghayes.bsky.social @datavisfriendly.bsky.social @chelseaparlett.bsky.social @statsepi.bsky.social @karlrohe.bsky.social @solomonkurz.bsky.social
September 1, 2024 at 12:51 PM
Statisticians at BlueSky
Any stats or machine learning researchers in Blue Sky?
August 31, 2024 at 11:20 PM
Any stats or machine learning researchers in Blue Sky?