One thing I'd note is that I think the impact of the program on overall age to 1st r01 will be muted by the size of the k99 awardee pool and 1) the shift in mean age of retirement of professors (shift north) and 2) the size of the esi pool every year.
NIH’s response to a 2005 National Academy report led to a new program based on its initial goal of reducing the age of investigators achieving research independence
One thing I'd note is that I think the impact of the program on overall age to 1st r01 will be muted by the size of the k99 awardee pool and 1) the shift in mean age of retirement of professors (shift north) and 2) the size of the esi pool every year.