Quantlake
@quantlake.bsky.social
Beat fear. Beat FOMO. Stay disciplined with ETF insights and quant strategies. Not financial advice.
When Calm Is the Most Dangerous Signal
Your 30-second fix
Core insight
Investors systematically confuse low volatility with low risk. Narrative-driven “order” reduces perceived uncertainty while silently concentrating risk.
Takeaway
Am I treating market calm as safety instead of hidden fragility?
Your 30-second fix
Core insight
Investors systematically confuse low volatility with low risk. Narrative-driven “order” reduces perceived uncertainty while silently concentrating risk.
Takeaway
Am I treating market calm as safety instead of hidden fragility?
December 30, 2025 at 9:30 PM
When Calm Is the Most Dangerous Signal
Your 30-second fix
Core insight
Investors systematically confuse low volatility with low risk. Narrative-driven “order” reduces perceived uncertainty while silently concentrating risk.
Takeaway
Am I treating market calm as safety instead of hidden fragility?
Your 30-second fix
Core insight
Investors systematically confuse low volatility with low risk. Narrative-driven “order” reduces perceived uncertainty while silently concentrating risk.
Takeaway
Am I treating market calm as safety instead of hidden fragility?
The best gift you can give your portfolio isn’t prediction—it’s discipline.
Markets will always swing, but drift is optional. Vanguard shows disciplined rebalancing reduces volatility by ~16%. DALBAR proves behavior, not markets, cost investors 8.48% in 2024.
Time to review your portfolio.
Markets will always swing, but drift is optional. Vanguard shows disciplined rebalancing reduces volatility by ~16%. DALBAR proves behavior, not markets, cost investors 8.48% in 2024.
Time to review your portfolio.
December 30, 2025 at 12:17 PM
The best gift you can give your portfolio isn’t prediction—it’s discipline.
Markets will always swing, but drift is optional. Vanguard shows disciplined rebalancing reduces volatility by ~16%. DALBAR proves behavior, not markets, cost investors 8.48% in 2024.
Time to review your portfolio.
Markets will always swing, but drift is optional. Vanguard shows disciplined rebalancing reduces volatility by ~16%. DALBAR proves behavior, not markets, cost investors 8.48% in 2024.
Time to review your portfolio.
Fixed income momentum is broad and constructive, with all ETFs above zero and no high-risk signals.
EMB leads on 3-month momentum, JNK is a top gainer, and TLT/TIP flipped positive; breakouts outnumber breakdowns, volatility is low.
EMB leads on 3-month momentum, JNK is a top gainer, and TLT/TIP flipped positive; breakouts outnumber breakdowns, volatility is low.
December 28, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Fixed income momentum is broad and constructive, with all ETFs above zero and no high-risk signals.
EMB leads on 3-month momentum, JNK is a top gainer, and TLT/TIP flipped positive; breakouts outnumber breakdowns, volatility is low.
EMB leads on 3-month momentum, JNK is a top gainer, and TLT/TIP flipped positive; breakouts outnumber breakdowns, volatility is low.
Equities saw broad momentum stay positive, but leadership narrowed
All 17 ETFs still positive on 3-month momentum, but breakdowns suggest selective rotation
Watching VT: if breakout holds and momentum stays up, leadership could broaden; else, expect more concentration
All 17 ETFs still positive on 3-month momentum, but breakdowns suggest selective rotation
Watching VT: if breakout holds and momentum stays up, leadership could broaden; else, expect more concentration
December 28, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Equities saw broad momentum stay positive, but leadership narrowed
All 17 ETFs still positive on 3-month momentum, but breakdowns suggest selective rotation
Watching VT: if breakout holds and momentum stays up, leadership could broaden; else, expect more concentration
All 17 ETFs still positive on 3-month momentum, but breakdowns suggest selective rotation
Watching VT: if breakout holds and momentum stays up, leadership could broaden; else, expect more concentration
Leadership in alternatives is shifting as broad momentum remains positive but volatility is high.
GDX and IBB led with strong 3-month momentum and breakouts, but breakdowns widened.
If IBB holds its breakout and momentum slope, leadership may persist; otherwise, expect a return to choppier action.
GDX and IBB led with strong 3-month momentum and breakouts, but breakdowns widened.
If IBB holds its breakout and momentum slope, leadership may persist; otherwise, expect a return to choppier action.
December 27, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Leadership in alternatives is shifting as broad momentum remains positive but volatility is high.
GDX and IBB led with strong 3-month momentum and breakouts, but breakdowns widened.
If IBB holds its breakout and momentum slope, leadership may persist; otherwise, expect a return to choppier action.
GDX and IBB led with strong 3-month momentum and breakouts, but breakdowns widened.
If IBB holds its breakout and momentum slope, leadership may persist; otherwise, expect a return to choppier action.
Sectors remain resilient, but leadership is shifting.
XLV led with 15.7% 3-month momentum; XLB broke out at 4.3%.
XLE fell -3.7pts WoW, flipping negative; XLU also turned negative after a -1.7pt slide.
Breakouts narrowed to XLV, XLB; breakdowns spread to XLE, XLU, XLRE.
XLV led with 15.7% 3-month momentum; XLB broke out at 4.3%.
XLE fell -3.7pts WoW, flipping negative; XLU also turned negative after a -1.7pt slide.
Breakouts narrowed to XLV, XLB; breakdowns spread to XLE, XLU, XLRE.
December 27, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Sectors remain resilient, but leadership is shifting.
XLV led with 15.7% 3-month momentum; XLB broke out at 4.3%.
XLE fell -3.7pts WoW, flipping negative; XLU also turned negative after a -1.7pt slide.
Breakouts narrowed to XLV, XLB; breakdowns spread to XLE, XLU, XLRE.
XLV led with 15.7% 3-month momentum; XLB broke out at 4.3%.
XLE fell -3.7pts WoW, flipping negative; XLU also turned negative after a -1.7pt slide.
Breakouts narrowed to XLV, XLB; breakdowns spread to XLE, XLU, XLRE.
Gold Miners rally Friday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.77%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SMH Semiconductors +0.46%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -0.70%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.77%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SMH Semiconductors +0.46%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -0.70%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
December 27, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Gold Miners rally Friday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.77%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SMH Semiconductors +0.46%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -0.70%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.77%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SMH Semiconductors +0.46%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -0.17%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IBB Biotechnology -0.70%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Long Treasuries drift lower Friday
Market Summary:
Top 2:
VGIT Int. Treasuries +0.12%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.33%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Summary:
Top 2:
VGIT Int. Treasuries +0.12%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.33%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
December 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Long Treasuries drift lower Friday
Market Summary:
Top 2:
VGIT Int. Treasuries +0.12%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.33%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Summary:
Top 2:
VGIT Int. Treasuries +0.12%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
VCSH Short Corporate +0.11%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries -0.33%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Emerging Markets rise Friday
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emg. Markets +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYG Small-Cap Growth -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emg. Markets +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYG Small-Cap Growth -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
December 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Emerging Markets rise Friday
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emg. Markets +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYG Small-Cap Growth -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
VWO Emg. Markets +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.17%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYG Small-Cap Growth -0.26%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Semiconductors edge up Tuesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +0.96%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IYW US Technology +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.66%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -0.88%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +0.96%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IYW US Technology +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.66%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -0.88%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
December 24, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Semiconductors edge up Tuesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +0.96%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IYW US Technology +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.66%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -0.88%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
SMH Semiconductors +0.96%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IYW US Technology +0.67%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
ICLN Clean Energy -0.66%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBIT Bitcoin Trust -0.88%:Bearish Mom. Negative Sent.
Global Bonds edge up Tuesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
BNDX Global Bonds +0.21%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.16%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Moves:
Top 2:
BNDX Global Bonds +0.21%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.16%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
December 24, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Global Bonds edge up Tuesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
BNDX Global Bonds +0.21%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.16%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Market Moves:
Top 2:
BNDX Global Bonds +0.21%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
TLT Long Treasuries +0.16%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -0.05%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VGIT Int. Treasuries -0.08%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
S&P Growth climbs Tuesday
What Happened:
Top 2:
SPYG S&P Growth +0.80%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWF Russell Growth +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.55%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.59%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
SPYG S&P Growth +0.80%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWF Russell Growth +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.55%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.59%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
December 24, 2025 at 12:48 PM
S&P Growth climbs Tuesday
What Happened:
Top 2:
SPYG S&P Growth +0.80%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWF Russell Growth +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.55%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.59%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
SPYG S&P Growth +0.80%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWF Russell Growth +0.63%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value -0.55%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 -0.59%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
SPY Bullish Strong Line: Gains Hold, But Downside Tails Persist
Dec 23
All conds: mean 1.0% | Gains 67.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.79% | Gains 67.9%
Bullish edge held in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
Dec 23
All conds: mean 1.0% | Gains 67.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.79% | Gains 67.9%
Bullish edge held in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
December 24, 2025 at 11:55 AM
SPY Bullish Strong Line: Gains Hold, But Downside Tails Persist
Dec 23
All conds: mean 1.0% | Gains 67.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.79% | Gains 67.9%
Bullish edge held in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
Dec 23
All conds: mean 1.0% | Gains 67.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.79% | Gains 67.9%
Bullish edge held in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
Pessimism lingers — SPY 1M returns edge out the baseline.
Quantlake Herd Index at 38.7, up 3 days in a row.
SPY 1M returns in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI stands 21% above its 1M average, but 33% below the 3M mark.
Still, this Fear streak is unusually long.
Quantlake Herd Index at 38.7, up 3 days in a row.
SPY 1M returns in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI stands 21% above its 1M average, but 33% below the 3M mark.
Still, this Fear streak is unusually long.
December 24, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Pessimism lingers — SPY 1M returns edge out the baseline.
Quantlake Herd Index at 38.7, up 3 days in a row.
SPY 1M returns in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI stands 21% above its 1M average, but 33% below the 3M mark.
Still, this Fear streak is unusually long.
Quantlake Herd Index at 38.7, up 3 days in a row.
SPY 1M returns in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI stands 21% above its 1M average, but 33% below the 3M mark.
Still, this Fear streak is unusually long.
Why Investors Prefer a Worse Strategy
→ 30-second fix
Dollar-cost averaging survives because it reduces regret, shifts responsibility to a rule, and feels safer under loss aversion—even when math says otherwise. Investors frame DCA as protection from bad timing, not as a return-maximizing choice.
→ 30-second fix
Dollar-cost averaging survives because it reduces regret, shifts responsibility to a rule, and feels safer under loss aversion—even when math says otherwise. Investors frame DCA as protection from bad timing, not as a return-maximizing choice.
December 24, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Why Investors Prefer a Worse Strategy
→ 30-second fix
Dollar-cost averaging survives because it reduces regret, shifts responsibility to a rule, and feels safer under loss aversion—even when math says otherwise. Investors frame DCA as protection from bad timing, not as a return-maximizing choice.
→ 30-second fix
Dollar-cost averaging survives because it reduces regret, shifts responsibility to a rule, and feels safer under loss aversion—even when math says otherwise. Investors frame DCA as protection from bad timing, not as a return-maximizing choice.
Headline Myopia
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Volatility often reflects competing narratives, not immediate economic truth. Constant headline consumption triggers overreaction without improving decisions.
Takeaway:
→ Did today’s action align with my long-term plan, or just today’s news?
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Volatility often reflects competing narratives, not immediate economic truth. Constant headline consumption triggers overreaction without improving decisions.
Takeaway:
→ Did today’s action align with my long-term plan, or just today’s news?
December 23, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Headline Myopia
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Volatility often reflects competing narratives, not immediate economic truth. Constant headline consumption triggers overreaction without improving decisions.
Takeaway:
→ Did today’s action align with my long-term plan, or just today’s news?
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Volatility often reflects competing narratives, not immediate economic truth. Constant headline consumption triggers overreaction without improving decisions.
Takeaway:
→ Did today’s action align with my long-term plan, or just today’s news?
When Calm Is the Most Dangerous Signal
Markets oscillate between chaos (high uncertainty) and order (dominant narratives). When one story takes over, prices trend smoothly, volatility falls, and investors feel in control. That apparent order is unstable: risk is not eliminated, it is compressed.
Markets oscillate between chaos (high uncertainty) and order (dominant narratives). When one story takes over, prices trend smoothly, volatility falls, and investors feel in control. That apparent order is unstable: risk is not eliminated, it is compressed.
December 23, 2025 at 6:04 PM
When Calm Is the Most Dangerous Signal
Markets oscillate between chaos (high uncertainty) and order (dominant narratives). When one story takes over, prices trend smoothly, volatility falls, and investors feel in control. That apparent order is unstable: risk is not eliminated, it is compressed.
Markets oscillate between chaos (high uncertainty) and order (dominant narratives). When one story takes over, prices trend smoothly, volatility falls, and investors feel in control. That apparent order is unstable: risk is not eliminated, it is compressed.
SPY Short White Candle: Bullish Edge Holds, Downside Tail Risk Persists
Dec 22
All conds: mean 1.35% | Predicted gains 71.3% | skew -1.9, kurt 11.6
QHI 20–40: mean 1.11% | Predicted gains 74.0% | skew -1.8, kurt 4.4
Bullish edge holds, but downside tail risk remains high.
Dec 22
All conds: mean 1.35% | Predicted gains 71.3% | skew -1.9, kurt 11.6
QHI 20–40: mean 1.11% | Predicted gains 74.0% | skew -1.8, kurt 4.4
Bullish edge holds, but downside tail risk remains high.
December 23, 2025 at 12:44 PM
SPY Short White Candle: Bullish Edge Holds, Downside Tail Risk Persists
Dec 22
All conds: mean 1.35% | Predicted gains 71.3% | skew -1.9, kurt 11.6
QHI 20–40: mean 1.11% | Predicted gains 74.0% | skew -1.8, kurt 4.4
Bullish edge holds, but downside tail risk remains high.
Dec 22
All conds: mean 1.35% | Predicted gains 71.3% | skew -1.9, kurt 11.6
QHI 20–40: mean 1.11% | Predicted gains 74.0% | skew -1.8, kurt 4.4
Bullish edge holds, but downside tail risk remains high.
Gold Miners rally Monday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.72%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +1.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
FTLS Long/Short Equity +0.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
PFF Preferred Stock +0.03%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.72%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +1.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
FTLS Long/Short Equity +0.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
PFF Preferred Stock +0.03%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
December 23, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Gold Miners rally Monday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.72%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +1.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
FTLS Long/Short Equity +0.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
PFF Preferred Stock +0.03%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +2.72%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
IBB Biotechnology +1.51%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
FTLS Long/Short Equity +0.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
PFF Preferred Stock +0.03%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
Long Treasuries edge down Monday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.09%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
TLT Long Treasuries -0.22%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Market Moves:
Top 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.09%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
TLT Long Treasuries -0.22%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
December 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Long Treasuries edge down Monday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.09%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
TLT Long Treasuries -0.22%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Market Moves:
Top 2:
JNK High Yield Bonds +0.09%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
EMB EM Sovereign Bonds +0.04%: Bullish Mom. - Positive Sent..
Bottom 2:
TIP TIPS -0.15%: Bullish Mom. - Neutral Sent..
TLT Long Treasuries -0.22%: Neutral Mom. - Neutral Sent..
Mid-Cap Growth climbs Monday
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 +1.11%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value +0.34%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.25%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 +1.11%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value +0.34%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.25%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
December 23, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Mid-Cap Growth climbs Monday
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 +1.11%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value +0.34%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.25%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
What Happened:
Top 2:
MDYG Mid-Cap Growth +1.27%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
IWM Russell 2000 +1.11%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Bottom 2:
SLYV Small-Cap Value +0.34%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
EFA Dev. Markets +0.25%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Fear zone stretches — SPY forward returns are beating the baseline.
The Quantlake Herd Index is at 37.5, holding in the Fear zone for 25 trading days—nearly three times the average streak.
QHI has gained 12 points over the past month, but it’s still 36% under its 3-month average.
The Quantlake Herd Index is at 37.5, holding in the Fear zone for 25 trading days—nearly three times the average streak.
QHI has gained 12 points over the past month, but it’s still 36% under its 3-month average.
December 23, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Fear zone stretches — SPY forward returns are beating the baseline.
The Quantlake Herd Index is at 37.5, holding in the Fear zone for 25 trading days—nearly three times the average streak.
QHI has gained 12 points over the past month, but it’s still 36% under its 3-month average.
The Quantlake Herd Index is at 37.5, holding in the Fear zone for 25 trading days—nearly three times the average streak.
QHI has gained 12 points over the past month, but it’s still 36% under its 3-month average.
Complexity Bias in Investing
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Investors often believe complex markets require complex decisions. This bias leads to overtrading, overconfidence, and emotionally driven choices.
Takeaway:
→ Is your ETF strategy rule-based and repeatable—or adjusted by gut feeling?
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Investors often believe complex markets require complex decisions. This bias leads to overtrading, overconfidence, and emotionally driven choices.
Takeaway:
→ Is your ETF strategy rule-based and repeatable—or adjusted by gut feeling?
December 22, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Complexity Bias in Investing
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Investors often believe complex markets require complex decisions. This bias leads to overtrading, overconfidence, and emotionally driven choices.
Takeaway:
→ Is your ETF strategy rule-based and repeatable—or adjusted by gut feeling?
→ 30-second fix
Core insight:
Investors often believe complex markets require complex decisions. This bias leads to overtrading, overconfidence, and emotionally driven choices.
Takeaway:
→ Is your ETF strategy rule-based and repeatable—or adjusted by gut feeling?
SPY Long Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Positive Returns Persist
Dec 17
All conds: mean 1.33% | Predicted declines 34.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.98% | Predicted declines 39.2%
Result: Bearish failed; positive returns, moderate downside risk in all zones.
Dec 17
All conds: mean 1.33% | Predicted declines 34.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.98% | Predicted declines 39.2%
Result: Bearish failed; positive returns, moderate downside risk in all zones.
December 18, 2025 at 12:55 PM
SPY Long Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Positive Returns Persist
Dec 17
All conds: mean 1.33% | Predicted declines 34.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.98% | Predicted declines 39.2%
Result: Bearish failed; positive returns, moderate downside risk in all zones.
Dec 17
All conds: mean 1.33% | Predicted declines 34.5%
QHI 20–40: mean 0.98% | Predicted declines 39.2%
Result: Bearish failed; positive returns, moderate downside risk in all zones.
Semiconductors slide Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.18%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VNQ Real Estate +0.37%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -2.35%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
SMH Semiconductors -3.61%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.18%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VNQ Real Estate +0.37%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -2.35%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
SMH Semiconductors -3.61%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
December 18, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Semiconductors slide Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.18%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VNQ Real Estate +0.37%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -2.35%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
SMH Semiconductors -3.61%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2:
GDX Gold Miners +1.18%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.
VNQ Real Estate +0.37%: Neutral Mom. Neutral Sent.
Bottom 2:
MTUM Mom. Factor -2.35%: Bullish Mom. Neutral Sent.
SMH Semiconductors -3.61%: Bullish Mom. Positive Sent.