In all, I don’t think Francis is a mirage, but I think his run to end the season is close to his ceiling unless he adds a pitch or better improves his breaking pitches.

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I’ll do a lot more of this on the way to Spring Training!

The usage plots of his Curve and Slider show good location but I think a cutter could help improve the arsenal as it will play off Francis’s 4S and Splitter velocity wise.

So about 30% of the pitches thrown by Francis gave up pretty good contact.

He can benefit from throwing a pitch that can hit the inside corner against RHBs or dive away from LHBs.

Francis’s arsenal can use some work:
The FB/SP combo works terrifically, but the breaking pitches aren’t as great.

Batters hit .308 against his curve and .250 against his slider.

The curve was used 18.2% of the time while the slider was used 9.2% of the time.

So Francis got pretty lucky over that stretch, but it also doesn’t seem to suggest that he’s going to implode into a 4.50+ ERA player this year.

However, Savant’s comps for Francis in 2024 are less appealing:

So this would seem to indicate that some of Francis’s success was earned (and it was!) but there were some issues under the hood.

Francis’s ERA over that run was 1.80, but the FIP and xFIP were 3.78 and 3.89 respectively. Additionally he had a 95.5 LOB% during that time.

From 7/29 through 9/24, Francis made 10 starts with a 1.80 ERA, striking out 58 batters while walking just 8.

That stretch also had 2 no-hit bids get spoiled in the 9th and included 5 games with a K/9 > 1.

Francis also kept his walks in check with just a 1.11 B/9 over that run

In 2024 Francis primarily pitched in long relief before getting a chance to crack the rotation fully on 7/29/24 in a start against the Baltimore Orioles.

He delivered 5 innings with 2Ks and 1BB while giving up 3ER.

That start began Francis’s hero ball stretch.

Bowden Francis was a 7th round pick in the 2017 draft out of Chipola JC (home of Cam Collier too!) so his path to fantasy relevance wasn’t pre-ordained.

He appeared in 20 games for the Jays in 2023 tossing 36IP before his breakout in 2024.

Higher touted prospects like Paulino Santana, Braylin Morel, and Yeremi Cabrera, all failed to get stateside assignments in their debut year.

For those of you who have been following this account for a while you’ll know, when a team tells you how they value a player, listen.

6’3” 165lbs (accurate based on footage I’ve seen). Has a frame to add muscle though.

Hit 377/482/415 in his pro debut & swiped 10 bags (albeit inefficiently).

While he’s not quite on the Walcott Exp., it wouldn’t be crazy to see him go to Hi-A to start the year if the Rangers really like him.

Love the Adley call, slightly worried about the long term impacts of the wrist injury, as those tend to linger even past off-seasons.

That said, I think he’s in for a banger 2025 where he returns to dynasty C1

Ironically it’s because I think a lot of guys who could/have played SS at the MILB level don’t project to stay there, in conjunction with a lot of young talent coming up recently.

Holliday/Merrill/Caminero all position swapped in the majors.

Mauricio, Triantos, Amador, Shaw, Arroyo, House in MILB

“Baseball is hard. I dunno.” will forever be evergreen.

Senzel I at least understand because of the concussions and significant injury history, it kinda felt like Carlson just…never…happened?

*Edits FAAB wager I just put in*

Btw remember when Dylan Carlson was supposed to be the MAN?

Challenge system. No blackouts.