POLDER
polder-center.bsky.social
POLDER
@polder-center.bsky.social
POLDER is an initiative based at the UvA Institute for Advanced Study in Amsterdam. We collaborate with policymakers and researchers to tackle complex challenges and co-create tomorrow's policy interventions.

Website: https://polder.center
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Judge (2025) | "Blogpost: Social Tipping Points and Plant-forward Eating."
Examines how moral innovators can accelerate social tipping points in sustainable behaviours, highlighting lessons for designing policies that work with, not against, social dynamics.
Social Tipping Points and Plant-forward Eating
We interview Dr Maddie Judge on the dynamics of moralised social change.
phairsociety.org
January 12, 2026 at 11:19 AM
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Falmagne et al. (2026) | “Interpretable early warnings using machine learning in an online game-experiment.”
Suggests ML methods to improve early-warning signal detection of critical transitions in complex systems; including human-readable output for understanding the pre-transition period.
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
January 12, 2026 at 11:18 AM
[6/8]
van Elteren, Vasconcelos & Lees (2025) | "The Paradox of Intervention: Resilience in Adaptive Multi-Role Coordination Networks."
Shows that well-intended interventions in criminal networks may unintentionally strengthen their resilience.
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
www.pnas.org
January 12, 2026 at 11:17 AM
[5/8]
Ogbo et al. (2025) | "Evolution of Coordination Through Institutional Incentives: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach."
Offers policy-relevant suggestions for designing effective institutional incentives to e.g. drive technology adoption, improve public health, and tackle climate change.
Evolution of Coordination Through Institutional Incentives: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach | Proceedings of the 2025 7th International Conference on Distributed Artificial Intelligence
dl.acm.org
January 12, 2026 at 11:16 AM
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Dablander et al. (2025) | "Summary Report Workshop: Understanding and Accelerating Collective Climate Action."
Summary of workshop outcomes by 24 scholars, activists and practitioners from diverse backgrounds: analyses and proposed strategies in the current climate movement crisis.
zenodo.org
January 12, 2026 at 11:15 AM
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Stronks et al. (2025) | "Towards a complex systems model of evidence for public health."
Complex systems model that can serve as a guide to researchers and policy-/decision-makers when designing research programmes and evidence-based policies in public health.
Towards a complex systems model of evidence for public health
There has been growing interest in the adoption of complex systems approaches to tackle major public health challenges such as obesity. This perspective redirects focus from individually oriented and ...
gh.bmj.com
January 12, 2026 at 11:13 AM
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Nel & Taeihagh (2025) | "Tackling the soft non-technical challenges of the adoption of complexity science in policymaking."
Examination of non-technical-human and organisational-barriers to complexity-informed policymaking, including strategy suggestions to overcome these obstacles.
Client Challenge
link.springer.com
January 12, 2026 at 11:07 AM
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AWTI: Advisory Council for Science, Technology and Innovation (2025) | "Shaping the Future – A Guideline for Transformative Policy"
Advisory report to the Dutch government on integrating systems thinking into formal transformation efforts.
Advice: Shaping the future – a guideline for transformative policy | Adviesraad voor wetenschap, technologie en innovatie
Complex societal challenges require innovative solutions and fundamental changes in our way of living and working. With well-coordinated combinations of policy instruments, the government can bring ab...
www.awti.nl
October 1, 2025 at 10:00 AM
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Isaak Mengesha & Debraj Roy (2025) | "Carbon pricing drives critical transition to green growth" | Nature Communications
Carbon pricing + redistributive measures can induce tipping points that reduce emissions, while maintaining economic growth and decreasing inequality.
Carbon pricing drives critical transition to green growth - Nature Communications
This study reveals how carbon pricing can trigger critical tipping points, driving rapid and lasting emission reductions. When paired with redistributive measures, these policies can simultaneously foster equity and sustain economic stability.
www.nature.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:58 AM
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Loes Crielaard et al. (2025) | "Systems approaches in public health: beyond mapping the causes" | IJBNPA
System dynamics literature review on moving from descriptive maps toward intervention-informed frameworks for effective public health action.
Systems approaches in public health: beyond mapping the causes - International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity
Background Systems approaches are increasingly adopted in public health, commonly operationalised using system dynamics (SD). In public health, systems approaches have prioritised understanding the current system by describing the causes of a complex problem – e.g. obesity – as a system. It remains challenging to advance from understanding the current system producing undesired outcomes, towards responses to improve outcomes. Rather than creating models of the (entire) system, SD traditionally emphasises specific models to support policy development. While core concepts from SD have effectively been adopted in public health, there may be more to learn from SD when it comes to designing systems approaches that can fulfil the purpose of informing problem responses. Methods We reviewed seminal SD literature for clues on how to refine the focus of systems approaches, so that they lead to specific models supporting policy development. We conducted a narrative review, seeking a strategy that can be leveraged in systems approaches in public health. We concentrated on SD’s problem framing strategy, leading to two insights. Results Insight 1: Alongside the complex problem at stake (e.g. obesity), consider the intended result of the systems approach (coordination, learning, analysis or transformation). This helps recognise which system components are relevant to problem responses and make methodological decisions accordingly. Insight 2: If investigation of the current system reveals that only radical change can lead to improved outcomes, then proceed to envisioning how the system could be fundamentally transformed to support those desired outcomes. This next step helps to anticipate policy resistance, unintended consequences and counterintuitive behaviour by contemplating how the system would react due to proposed problem responses. Conclusions Applying a problem framing strategy, as is commonly done in SD, could make systems approaches in public health better positioned to inform problem responses. Problem framing stimulates the contribution of systems approaches to health policy, prioritising system components relevant to problem responses (Insight 1), which may not be part of the system (Insight 2).
ijbnpa.biomedcentral.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:55 AM
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Uleman et al. (2024) | "Diagrams-to-Dynamics (D2D): Exploring CLD Leverage Points under Uncertainty"
Turns causal loop diagrams into system dynamics models, even in the absence of empirical data.
Diagrams-to-Dynamics (D2D): Exploring Causal Loop Diagram Leverage Points under Uncertainty
Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are widely used in health and environmental research to represent hypothesized causal structures underlying complex problems. However, as qualitative and static representat...
arxiv.org
October 1, 2025 at 9:52 AM
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QSEM: Qualitative Systems Exploration Model
New semi-quantitative framework to explore system structures, which introduces the concept of control alongside impact.
QSEM - Qualitative Systems Exploration Model
Advanced qualitative systems exploration platform for researchers, policy makers, and consultants working with complex systems.
www.systemssciencelab.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:49 AM
If you are interested, see the details of the event in the link above and send us your idea or profile. Use our contact form at polder.center/contact-us/ and ensure that you start the subject line with 'APH'.
Contact us - POLDER
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polder.center
July 23, 2025 at 1:49 PM
POLDER is supporting the APH, and we invite our community to contribute by:
* Being or recommending a jury panel member, who will review the groups' policy advice;
* Contributing additional 1h-long interactive workshops; or
* Sharing the event with those who might want to participate (link above).
July 23, 2025 at 1:49 PM