Some of my work that can be found here:
- A dataset of full temperature exposure-response functions for European cities (Data)
- Results from health impact projections in Europe (Apps)
- Reproducible code for environmental risk extrapolation (R Code)

The paper is structure as a succession of self-contained - but nonetheless interrelated - packages presenting the methodological innovations. A fully reproducible code with data is available on GitHub: github.com/PierreMassel...

Sorry but I don't think I know enough to answer. Would be interesting to have a look though.

In other words, we estimate that without temperature changes, we would avoid the same amount of heat-related deaths that was estimated *in total* in 2022.

Sounds big enough to me.

To which we deduct the ~3M reduction in cold-related deaths.
Now, our figures report only the part attributed to climate change, i.e. due to changes in temp distribution. This comes in addition to the "historical burden" which means that in the 60,000 figure of 2022 only a small part would count.

Well, some estimates of heat-related deaths for the record hot summer of 2022 were about 60,000 (doi.org/10.1038/s415...). Multipliying by 85 (our proj period), this amount to a bit more than 5M heat-related deaths. so almost the cumulative excess we estimate for heat alone in our paper.

You can explore our results with our interactive app (ehm-lab.shinyapps.io/vistemphip/) and access reproducible code and data (zenodo.org/records/1400...).

We found regional disparities with actually a slight net decrease in Northernmost countries but a massive net increase in Mediterranean countries. Central Europe and the Balkans are other hotspots of increased temperature-related deaths.

We show that a dramatic increase in heat-related deaths across European cities should completely overtake decreases in cold-related deaths as the climate warms and that, no, climate change will not save lives. Further, the levels of adaptation necessary to reverse the trend are extremely high.

Full research paper hopefully out before the end of the year.