10/ You can find more information about my JMP on my website! www.pierreloupbeauregard.org

9/Policy takeaway: child-centred returns are real and sizable—but tied to parents’ reduced work. Designs that strictly minimize short-run adult work disincentives risk blunting child gains; designs that allow (or modestly encourage) time reallocation at home seem to pay off for the next generation.

8/ Welfare: MVPF of one extra year of social housing for a 1-parent-1-child family = 1.43. Partial MVPFs that examine only parents or only children misclassify the policy as undesirable; the value lies in the bigenerational incidence. Net benefits become apparent in a comprehensive calculation.

7/ Instead, the previously underinvestigated channel of parental time investments is most consistent with my results. The randomness in displacement distance generates quasi-exogenous variation in labour-supply reductions. Longer moves → larger reductions in parents’ work → better child outcome.

6/ Mechanisms considered in the literature fail to explain the observed pattern. Entry moves are, if anything, to slightly worse place effects (à la Chetty–Hendren). Net-of-housing disposable resources change little; pure income channel is unlikely to explain children’s sizable long-run gains.

4/ I then use an exposure design to measure the impact on long-term child outcomes, comparing those who enter earlier vs. later. Oversubscribed programs and long waitlists, make timing manipulation virtually impossible. Earlier entry → higher adult earnings, more post-sec, less safety-net use.

3/ These far exceed what “pure income” windfalls predict. A time-allocation model—where RGI (1) lowers rent, (2) adds an implicit earnings tax, and (3) insures against earnings risk—rationalizes the large labour-supply response. The insurance channel explains about half.

2/ I begin by studying the impact of RGI on adults using a matched event study framework. RGI entry cuts parents’ labour earnings by $2,400 (~20%). Employment falls 6 p.p., and hours drop 7.3% among job stayers. Meanwhile, yearly rent falls by ~$3,500.

S’opposer à la fécondation in vitro, ce n’est pas très « pro-vie ».

Polls are bundled in 3-day windows and weighted by sample size.

2019 Federal.

2025 Ontario.

Polls are bundled in 3-day windows and weighted by sample size.

2019 Federal election.
Not as striking, but the pattern is still there.

2025 Ontario Numbers.