PlayfulPiano
@playfulpiano.bsky.social
he/him, Musician/Arranger, Applied Statistics and Data Analytics B.S. @ RIT, Social Democrat, Black Lives Matter, Jewish Atheist, Best SSF2 Mega Man
https://allmylinks.com/playfulpiano
https://allmylinks.com/playfulpiano
can we talk about this from the most recent doj drop?
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
Accusation that not only did Trump rape a child, but that the mother was blackmailed by Maxwell, one of the mother/daughter was killed, police said murder, coroner said suicide, and not only that, but the (cont)
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
Accusation that not only did Trump rape a child, but that the mother was blackmailed by Maxwell, one of the mother/daughter was killed, police said murder, coroner said suicide, and not only that, but the (cont)
December 23, 2025 at 10:01 PM
can we talk about this from the most recent doj drop?
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
Accusation that not only did Trump rape a child, but that the mother was blackmailed by Maxwell, one of the mother/daughter was killed, police said murder, coroner said suicide, and not only that, but the (cont)
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
Accusation that not only did Trump rape a child, but that the mother was blackmailed by Maxwell, one of the mother/daughter was killed, police said murder, coroner said suicide, and not only that, but the (cont)
YOU'RE KIDDING LMFAOOOOO
December 23, 2025 at 11:57 AM
YOU'RE KIDDING LMFAOOOOO
I would very much call a presidency who is doing this much objective damage and are filled with literal neo-nazis having an approval rating of over 40% as high, yes.
In fact trump 2's approval has been higher than trump 1's approval, with an objectively worse administration. Even matching is bad!
In fact trump 2's approval has been higher than trump 1's approval, with an objectively worse administration. Even matching is bad!
December 23, 2025 at 12:43 AM
I would very much call a presidency who is doing this much objective damage and are filled with literal neo-nazis having an approval rating of over 40% as high, yes.
In fact trump 2's approval has been higher than trump 1's approval, with an objectively worse administration. Even matching is bad!
In fact trump 2's approval has been higher than trump 1's approval, with an objectively worse administration. Even matching is bad!
* change in incumbent president
* Videos pouring in on social media and then reported by establishment media about ice kidnappings and ice violence
* This graph
* Videos pouring in on social media and then reported by establishment media about ice kidnappings and ice violence
* This graph
December 22, 2025 at 11:11 PM
* change in incumbent president
* Videos pouring in on social media and then reported by establishment media about ice kidnappings and ice violence
* This graph
* Videos pouring in on social media and then reported by establishment media about ice kidnappings and ice violence
* This graph
Except that was centralized to the highest earners, not the lowest. My point here is that we have done successful economic policy, campaigned on it, and lost on it, because the media env focused on cultural issues over economic ones, and voters decided to trust that over their material improvements.
December 22, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Except that was centralized to the highest earners, not the lowest. My point here is that we have done successful economic policy, campaigned on it, and lost on it, because the media env focused on cultural issues over economic ones, and voters decided to trust that over their material improvements.
Debt doesn't seem to have had any significant spike outside of the initial 2020 pandemic, but otherwise trended downwards substantially?
This looks more like debt has decreased over Biden's term, not increased.
This looks more like debt has decreased over Biden's term, not increased.
December 22, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Debt doesn't seem to have had any significant spike outside of the initial 2020 pandemic, but otherwise trended downwards substantially?
This looks more like debt has decreased over Biden's term, not increased.
This looks more like debt has decreased over Biden's term, not increased.
oh my god not only has that account not been active since 2024, some of their last few tweets are incredible
December 10, 2025 at 5:00 AM
oh my god not only has that account not been active since 2024, some of their last few tweets are incredible
Curious what your thoughts are between squaring real wage increases with SPM increases? I'm also wondering if anyone has done a comparison between both metrics in terms of rate of change magnitude.
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Curious what your thoughts are between squaring real wage increases with SPM increases? I'm also wondering if anyone has done a comparison between both metrics in terms of rate of change magnitude.
And that's a wrap!
#TN07 ends up with Matt Van Epps (R) beating Altyn Behn (D) by a margin of 8.87%, or 15944 votes.
Overall turnout is just shy of the 2022 General, 179899 vs 180822 votes.
This was a +12.59D shift compared to the 2024 House election, which Mark Green won w/a 21.46% margin.
#TN07 ends up with Matt Van Epps (R) beating Altyn Behn (D) by a margin of 8.87%, or 15944 votes.
Overall turnout is just shy of the 2022 General, 179899 vs 180822 votes.
This was a +12.59D shift compared to the 2024 House election, which Mark Green won w/a 21.46% margin.
December 3, 2025 at 3:27 AM
And that's a wrap!
#TN07 ends up with Matt Van Epps (R) beating Altyn Behn (D) by a margin of 8.87%, or 15944 votes.
Overall turnout is just shy of the 2022 General, 179899 vs 180822 votes.
This was a +12.59D shift compared to the 2024 House election, which Mark Green won w/a 21.46% margin.
#TN07 ends up with Matt Van Epps (R) beating Altyn Behn (D) by a margin of 8.87%, or 15944 votes.
Overall turnout is just shy of the 2022 General, 179899 vs 180822 votes.
This was a +12.59D shift compared to the 2024 House election, which Mark Green won w/a 21.46% margin.
#TN07 Status update:
* All counties but Davidson, Stewart, and Williamson are in
* District wide shift vs. 2024 House is down to +12.54D, although this could still uptick with the remaining Davidson precincts.
* All counties but Davidson, Stewart, and Williamson are in
* District wide shift vs. 2024 House is down to +12.54D, although this could still uptick with the remaining Davidson precincts.
December 3, 2025 at 2:50 AM
#TN07 Status update:
* All counties but Davidson, Stewart, and Williamson are in
* District wide shift vs. 2024 House is down to +12.54D, although this could still uptick with the remaining Davidson precincts.
* All counties but Davidson, Stewart, and Williamson are in
* District wide shift vs. 2024 House is down to +12.54D, although this could still uptick with the remaining Davidson precincts.
#TN07 Status update:
* We're closing in on probably a +14D-18D shift relative to the 2024 House results
* Humphreys is fully in, making it the 6th completed county.
* Davidson is significantly punching above its weight for Behn
* Similarly, Wayne & Perry punched above their weights for Epps
* We're closing in on probably a +14D-18D shift relative to the 2024 House results
* Humphreys is fully in, making it the 6th completed county.
* Davidson is significantly punching above its weight for Behn
* Similarly, Wayne & Perry punched above their weights for Epps
December 3, 2025 at 2:40 AM
#TN07 Status update:
* We're closing in on probably a +14D-18D shift relative to the 2024 House results
* Humphreys is fully in, making it the 6th completed county.
* Davidson is significantly punching above its weight for Behn
* Similarly, Wayne & Perry punched above their weights for Epps
* We're closing in on probably a +14D-18D shift relative to the 2024 House results
* Humphreys is fully in, making it the 6th completed county.
* Davidson is significantly punching above its weight for Behn
* Similarly, Wayne & Perry punched above their weights for Epps
that and also republicans somehow able to milk rural county turnout
December 3, 2025 at 2:26 AM
that and also republicans somehow able to milk rural county turnout
#TN07 Status update:
* Overall relative shift has ticked back up a small bit thanks to a Davidson drop. Up to ~+15D relative to 2024H vs. ~+14D relative
* More red shifts and general bleeding from counties
* Houston joins the >100% turnout vs. the @votehub.com estimate
* Overall relative shift has ticked back up a small bit thanks to a Davidson drop. Up to ~+15D relative to 2024H vs. ~+14D relative
* More red shifts and general bleeding from counties
* Houston joins the >100% turnout vs. the @votehub.com estimate
December 3, 2025 at 2:19 AM
#TN07 Status update:
* Overall relative shift has ticked back up a small bit thanks to a Davidson drop. Up to ~+15D relative to 2024H vs. ~+14D relative
* More red shifts and general bleeding from counties
* Houston joins the >100% turnout vs. the @votehub.com estimate
* Overall relative shift has ticked back up a small bit thanks to a Davidson drop. Up to ~+15D relative to 2024H vs. ~+14D relative
* More red shifts and general bleeding from counties
* Houston joins the >100% turnout vs. the @votehub.com estimate
#TN07 Status update:
* Big red shifts in many of the other counties, overall relative shift vs. 2024 House is down to +14D
* Still waiting on Davidson, which is Behn's last hope to win.
* Benton, Decatur, Perry, and Wayne should all be completed
* Big red shifts in many of the other counties, overall relative shift vs. 2024 House is down to +14D
* Still waiting on Davidson, which is Behn's last hope to win.
* Benton, Decatur, Perry, and Wayne should all be completed
December 3, 2025 at 2:11 AM
#TN07 Status update:
* Big red shifts in many of the other counties, overall relative shift vs. 2024 House is down to +14D
* Still waiting on Davidson, which is Behn's last hope to win.
* Benton, Decatur, Perry, and Wayne should all be completed
* Big red shifts in many of the other counties, overall relative shift vs. 2024 House is down to +14D
* Still waiting on Davidson, which is Behn's last hope to win.
* Benton, Decatur, Perry, and Wayne should all be completed
#TN07 Status Update:
* Notable red shifts for Decatur, Hickman, Houston, Perry, and Wayne
* Decatur, Perry, and Wayne are all outperforming turnout estimates, which are rural R counties
* Williamson aligning with Montgomery instead of Robertson, showing a +21D shift
* This is still a race
* Notable red shifts for Decatur, Hickman, Houston, Perry, and Wayne
* Decatur, Perry, and Wayne are all outperforming turnout estimates, which are rural R counties
* Williamson aligning with Montgomery instead of Robertson, showing a +21D shift
* This is still a race
December 3, 2025 at 1:58 AM
#TN07 Status Update:
* Notable red shifts for Decatur, Hickman, Houston, Perry, and Wayne
* Decatur, Perry, and Wayne are all outperforming turnout estimates, which are rural R counties
* Williamson aligning with Montgomery instead of Robertson, showing a +21D shift
* This is still a race
* Notable red shifts for Decatur, Hickman, Houston, Perry, and Wayne
* Decatur, Perry, and Wayne are all outperforming turnout estimates, which are rural R counties
* Williamson aligning with Montgomery instead of Robertson, showing a +21D shift
* This is still a race
Something to flag for #TN07: Compared to the turnout estimates by @votehub.com , it appears Decatur and Perry, both rural R strongholds, are turning out way more votes.
December 3, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Something to flag for #TN07: Compared to the turnout estimates by @votehub.com , it appears Decatur and Perry, both rural R strongholds, are turning out way more votes.
Status update #TN07:
* strong Davidson showing, matters how EDay ends up, might carry over the edge
* bad signs out of robertson, only +13D shift vs. 2024H in a county that gave a ~15k R margin
* strong Davidson showing, matters how EDay ends up, might carry over the edge
* bad signs out of robertson, only +13D shift vs. 2024H in a county that gave a ~15k R margin
December 3, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Status update #TN07:
* strong Davidson showing, matters how EDay ends up, might carry over the edge
* bad signs out of robertson, only +13D shift vs. 2024H in a county that gave a ~15k R margin
* strong Davidson showing, matters how EDay ends up, might carry over the edge
* bad signs out of robertson, only +13D shift vs. 2024H in a county that gave a ~15k R margin
Ok finally some analysis.
@votehub.com just posted on Twitter their estimated by county turnout for #TN07
Roughly 52% turnout of the 2024 house race.
@votehub.com just posted on Twitter their estimated by county turnout for #TN07
Roughly 52% turnout of the 2024 house race.
December 2, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Ok finally some analysis.
@votehub.com just posted on Twitter their estimated by county turnout for #TN07
Roughly 52% turnout of the 2024 house race.
@votehub.com just posted on Twitter their estimated by county turnout for #TN07
Roughly 52% turnout of the 2024 house race.
Gallop's polling is roughly aligned to where trump was this time in his first term. In fact he's been a bit higher among male responses vs last term until this most recent poll.
Trump gained roughly 4% between now and the 2018 midterms, so there's still a lot that can happen.
Trump gained roughly 4% between now and the 2018 midterms, so there's still a lot that can happen.
November 28, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Gallop's polling is roughly aligned to where trump was this time in his first term. In fact he's been a bit higher among male responses vs last term until this most recent poll.
Trump gained roughly 4% between now and the 2018 midterms, so there's still a lot that can happen.
Trump gained roughly 4% between now and the 2018 midterms, so there's still a lot that can happen.
