Paul Kiernan
@pkwsj.bsky.social
Writing about the California economy for The Wall Street Journal. Currently based in Los Angeles. Previously CDMX, São Paulo, Rio, and DC.
Tips to paul.kiernan@wsj.com or Signal/WhatsApp +1-202-808-4258
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/paul-kiernan
Tips to paul.kiernan@wsj.com or Signal/WhatsApp +1-202-808-4258
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/paul-kiernan
Prince Andrew has said on various occasions in recent years that he regrets his association with Jeffrey Epstein.
But in 2016 Jeffrey Epstein suggested he regretted his association with Prince Andrew.
But in 2016 Jeffrey Epstein suggested he regretted his association with Prince Andrew.
November 13, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Prince Andrew has said on various occasions in recent years that he regrets his association with Jeffrey Epstein.
But in 2016 Jeffrey Epstein suggested he regretted his association with Prince Andrew.
But in 2016 Jeffrey Epstein suggested he regretted his association with Prince Andrew.
I’m old enough to remember standing in line at a rec center gym on a spring day in 2021 to get my first Covid-19 shot. It was very emotional, a feeling of triumph over the terrifying and isolating force of the pandemic.
Now we have to sign a dumb attestation that says insurance may not cover it.
Now we have to sign a dumb attestation that says insurance may not cover it.
November 12, 2025 at 6:43 PM
I’m old enough to remember standing in line at a rec center gym on a spring day in 2021 to get my first Covid-19 shot. It was very emotional, a feeling of triumph over the terrifying and isolating force of the pandemic.
Now we have to sign a dumb attestation that says insurance may not cover it.
Now we have to sign a dumb attestation that says insurance may not cover it.
November 10, 2025 at 6:46 AM
October 23, 2025 at 3:06 AM
An interesting thing about Brazil’s democracy is that Congress often responds to protests in the street. One example in The Economist:
October 2, 2025 at 2:53 PM
An interesting thing about Brazil’s democracy is that Congress often responds to protests in the street. One example in The Economist:
Dunno about the UK but in the US this appears to meet the definition of labor trafficking.
www.wsj.com/world/uk/bri...
www.wsj.com/world/uk/bri...
August 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Dunno about the UK but in the US this appears to meet the definition of labor trafficking.
www.wsj.com/world/uk/bri...
www.wsj.com/world/uk/bri...
For all the hay that has been made about the reliability of nonfarm payrolls, economists at JP Morgan find that these data experience the smallest revisions of any U.S. economic releases when compared to the overall size of the labor force.
August 21, 2025 at 3:14 PM
For all the hay that has been made about the reliability of nonfarm payrolls, economists at JP Morgan find that these data experience the smallest revisions of any U.S. economic releases when compared to the overall size of the labor force.
Headline consumer price index came in slightly cooler than expected in July, due mostly to declining energy prices. But "core" inflation picked up, with the CPI ex. food and energy up 0.322% in July from June. That's the biggest increase since January.
August 12, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Headline consumer price index came in slightly cooler than expected in July, due mostly to declining energy prices. But "core" inflation picked up, with the CPI ex. food and energy up 0.322% in July from June. That's the biggest increase since January.
Just ask Argentina how these moves pan out.
August 1, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Just ask Argentina how these moves pan out.
Across the Gaza Strip, families are facing a worsening struggle to find food and child hunger is spreading quickly
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
July 23, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Across the Gaza Strip, families are facing a worsening struggle to find food and child hunger is spreading quickly
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
As usual, I think Brian is right about Brazil. Its economy isn’t very reliant on exports to the US, its judiciary operates quite independently of politics and Lula will be eager to stand up to a foreign bully. Brazil already trades more with China than with the US; tariffs deepen that relationship.
July 10, 2025 at 12:48 PM
As usual, I think Brian is right about Brazil. Its economy isn’t very reliant on exports to the US, its judiciary operates quite independently of politics and Lula will be eager to stand up to a foreign bully. Brazil already trades more with China than with the US; tariffs deepen that relationship.
Crypto is looking less and less like the financial system of the future.
The Fed's annual survey of 12,000 U.S. households found that 8% of American adults reported "any use" of crypto in 2024, with only 2% using it to buy something or make a payment. Overall use is down one-third from 2021.
The Fed's annual survey of 12,000 U.S. households found that 8% of American adults reported "any use" of crypto in 2024, with only 2% using it to buy something or make a payment. Overall use is down one-third from 2021.
May 28, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Crypto is looking less and less like the financial system of the future.
The Fed's annual survey of 12,000 U.S. households found that 8% of American adults reported "any use" of crypto in 2024, with only 2% using it to buy something or make a payment. Overall use is down one-third from 2021.
The Fed's annual survey of 12,000 U.S. households found that 8% of American adults reported "any use" of crypto in 2024, with only 2% using it to buy something or make a payment. Overall use is down one-third from 2021.
Republicans say charts like this are wrong because tax cuts, deregulation and increased oil-and-gas production will accelerate economic growth so much that extra tax revenue covers the costs.
They don’t seem to be factoring in Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
They don’t seem to be factoring in Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
May 19, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Republicans say charts like this are wrong because tax cuts, deregulation and increased oil-and-gas production will accelerate economic growth so much that extra tax revenue covers the costs.
They don’t seem to be factoring in Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
They don’t seem to be factoring in Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
“and frequent victories in golf events”
April 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
“and frequent victories in golf events”
Consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in March from February (deflation) on the back of declining prices for energy and used cars.
Liberation Day tariffs had not yet taken effect. Still, a nice reminder of the U.S. economy’s recent tendency to surprise pessimists.
April 10, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in March from February (deflation) on the back of declining prices for energy and used cars.
Liberation Day tariffs had not yet taken effect. Still, a nice reminder of the U.S. economy’s recent tendency to surprise pessimists.
Trump raises tariffs further on China and suspends them for 90 days on other countries.
April 9, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Trump raises tariffs further on China and suspends them for 90 days on other countries.
“President Trump is the hardest-working president the American people have ever had,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
April 7, 2025 at 4:33 AM
“President Trump is the hardest-working president the American people have ever had,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Pessimism about the economy doesn’t always leave a dent in economic activity. Pessimism about the labor market, on the other hand, is strongly correlated with spending on big-ticket items, research (and this chart) show.
www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
March 29, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Pessimism about the economy doesn’t always leave a dent in economic activity. Pessimism about the labor market, on the other hand, is strongly correlated with spending on big-ticket items, research (and this chart) show.
www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
Recession fears have risen among economists but there is still no sign of a deteriorating labor market in initial jobless claims, which fell 1k last week to 224k.
March 27, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Recession fears have risen among economists but there is still no sign of a deteriorating labor market in initial jobless claims, which fell 1k last week to 224k.
National security is an interesting justification for 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, timing-wise.
March 27, 2025 at 12:26 AM
National security is an interesting justification for 25% tariffs on imported vehicles, timing-wise.
No more independent agencies sounds great when you think the White House is inclined to give you what you want. What about when that isn’t the case?
February 20, 2025 at 5:03 PM
No more independent agencies sounds great when you think the White House is inclined to give you what you want. What about when that isn’t the case?
This explanation is a valiant effort but just doesn’t seem very plausible. Austin isn’t in Australia, it’s like a two-hour flight from Atlanta.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
February 1, 2025 at 7:15 AM
This explanation is a valiant effort but just doesn’t seem very plausible. Austin isn’t in Australia, it’s like a two-hour flight from Atlanta.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
The Fed held interest rates steady and indicated no hurry to lower them further.
Key changes to the FOMC statement in the first paragraph:
"The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
Key changes to the FOMC statement in the first paragraph:
"The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
January 29, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The Fed held interest rates steady and indicated no hurry to lower them further.
Key changes to the FOMC statement in the first paragraph:
"The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
Key changes to the FOMC statement in the first paragraph:
"The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."