Noteworthy potentials:
- This operational blunder by NATO pared with wide-spread negative press in relevant regions may embolden adversarial activity in an already contentious region. Case in point: Ukraine.

Short and sweet?
- Optical blunder on the part of NATO.
- Drove domestic attention to a contentious zone
- Gave dissenting foreign media outlets both fuel for selling the the story that either “NATO is incompetent” or “The US is incompetent”

- The four soldiers are MIA, deaths unconfirmed

Planned -September 2025:
- Russia and Belarus to hold joint training exercises under the moniker “Zapad-2025”
- 13,000 joint- force troops will be stationed in proximity to the Lithuanian front lines on the Belarus side of the border
🧵9/9

Planned - Next Month:
- Germany’s 45th Panzer Brigade to be deployed to Lithuania, reinforcing NATO’s military stronghold in the Baltic choke point
🧵8/9

March 27-28:
- Adversarial media outlets ridicule optical misfire by SecGen Mark Rutte
- Radio silence in western media and by NATO: Allows adversarial outlets to paint the event as “an accident fueled by drug use or pure incompetence”
🧵7/9

March 26, 2025:
- Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, mistakenly expresses his condolences for the deaths of the 4 MIA US soldiers during public appearance
- Later walks back the implication that the soldiers are dead as their fate is not yet ascertained
🧵6/9

March 25, 2025:
- 4 US soldiers go MIA during joint training exercises in the “deterrent” zone of the Lithuania-Belarus border
- M88 tracked recovery vehicle discovered submerged in Pabradé bog
🧵5/9

March 18, 2025:
- The entirety of the Baltic corridor, including Lithuania, dissents from the Ottawa Treaty
- Planning for the deployment of a minefield spanning the Lithuania-Belarus border begins following dissent under the broader-scope “East Sheild” plan
🧵4/9

February, 2025:
- Russian Su-24 detected in Polish airspace near Gdańsk
- Marked increase in Russio-Belarusian/NATO tensions within the Baltics; airspace is now considered “contested”
🧵3/9

September, 2024:
- Russian drones detected in NATO airspace marking an escalation in Russian-affiliated probing activity
- Italy and Spain respond by providing reinforcement to Baltic airspace controls
🧵2/9

March 27, 2025
- QATAR CONFIRMS THEY ARE “NO LONGER POSITIONED” TO OFFER MEDIATION
- Israeli operations into Rafah have expanded
- Signal story continues to dominate the news-cycle.
- Still little-to-no coverage on Ronen Bar’s removal

March 25-26, 2025
- Israeli-Hamas conflict resumes full-force
- No major US media outlet coverage of Ronen Bar’s removal or public commentary on the implications
🧵9/?

March 24, 2025
- Israeli office of the Prime Minister publicly confirms Ronen Bar’s removal; no context given in the brief
🧵8/?

March 23, 2025 (cont’d)
- Leak is framed by administrative actors and media outlets as an “op. sec breach”; contents unclassified and high-optics
note: airstrikes are typically classified information
- Op. Sec breach takes the US media cycle by storm; perceived incompetence
🧵7/?

March 23, 2025
SIGNAL LEAK
- Jeffrey Goldberg - The now-famous Atlantic journalist & former IDF prison guard, who is frequently used for media-level intelligence drops - publishes excerpts from a Signal group chat used to plan airstrikes against Houthis facilities in Yemen
🧵6/?

March 22, 2025
EMERGENCY ISRAELI CABINET VOTE
- Ronen Bar is removed from Shin Bet leadership, decision makers cite “failure to align with mission tempo”
- Closed-door decision, no press briefing
🧵5/?

March 20-21, 2025
SIGNAL GROUP CHAT
- The now-leaked Signal group chat between high-ranking US and allied analysts is formed; available content implies frustration with Israeli activities and US indecision
🧵4/?

March 18-20, 2025
- Ronen Bar briefs US and UK intelligence liaisons on a new probe into Qatari financial ties to Israeli leadership; warns escalation jeopardizes Qatari foothold
- Netanyahu escalates pressure to present a unified front; internal rift with Shin Bet emerges
🧵3/?

March 18, 2025
- Israel launches airstrikes on Rafah & Khan Younis, targeting unaffiliated civilian relief assets
- IDF cites retaliation against Hamas rocket launch; no public record to support this claim
- Shin Bet was allegedly excluded from operational decision making
🧵2/?