✅ On this page, you’ll find:
- A methodology to identify vulnerable products and quantify trade dependencies
- Analysis of strategic risks: geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, reliance on critical technologies.
- Discussion on policy levers to mitigate these vulnerabilities

📌 Why is this crucial?
➡️ Over-reliance on suppliers weakens supply chains, especially when EU production capacity is limited.
➡️ Some products are critical for the EU’s industry and sovereignty, particularly in energy transition and strategic infrastructure.

🔎 My new page delves into these issues, based on our @cepr.org @bruegel.bsky.social publication with Isabelle Mejean (Paris Report 2, ed. @pisaniferry.bsky.social @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social @wederdim.bsky.social ) and my contribution to the @eib.org's Investment Report 2024/2025.

📉 The EU heavily relies on imports for critical goods: raw materials, industrial components, green tech…
Which products and sectors are most vulnerable?
What risks do these dependencies pose to competitiveness and sovereignty?

🌍 L’économie au service de la planète : comprendre, agir, évaluer
🏦 Est-ce que ma banque peut faire faillite ?
⛽ Pourquoi le prix du pétrole varie-t-il autant ?
🦄 Qu’est-ce qu’une licorne ?
🤖 Est-ce que l’IA va nous mettre au chômage

@cnrs.fr @crestumr.bsky.social

➡️ Loin d’être une ennemie de l’écologie, l’économie (dans sa méthodologie et ses outils de recherche) en est une alliée précieuse, à condition d’en faire bon usage.

📝 Retrouvez l'ensemble des mes articles disponibles dans la collection “2 minutes pour comprendre” (www.citeco.fr/rubriques/2-...) :

📊 Modéliser les effets futurs du réchauffement et des politiques (ex : modèle DICE de Nordhaus)
🧰 Agir, avec des outils économiques : taxe carbone, quotas, subventions, nudges, finance verte, banque centrale du carbone
📏 Évaluer ce qui fonctionne vraiment (DiD, RDD, RCT) – et à quel coût

💡Dans cet article, je propose une synthèse (accessible mais la plus précise possible) de quelques outils et idées économiques mobilisables pour faire face à la crise écologique :

🔎 Comprendre les causes et les trajectoires des émissions de gaz à effet de serre

📌 These trade dependencies are not just an economic issue—they have direct implications for the EU’s industrial and technological sovereignty.

@crestumr.bsky.social @ipparis.bsky.social @polytechniqueparis.bsky.social

🔍 Why does this matter?

📌 Accurately identifying these dependencies and their risks is crucial to designing efficient policies, such as supplier diversification, reshoring, and strategic investments. A focus on specific policies here: drive.google.com/file/d/1LA-8...

➡️ These vulnerabilities persist over time ⏳: 41% of trade dependencies identified before the global financial crisis persisted immediately after, and 35% remained in the long run. This highlights their structural nature and the difficulty of reducing them.

➡️ Some dependencies are structurally critical for European industry 🏭: The most vulnerable products are concentrated in chemicals, metals, and ceramics, industries that are essential for many strategic sectors.

➡️ Upstream trade dependencies are the riskiest ⚠️: Vulnerabilities occurring more than three stages before the final consumer account for 49% of critical products. Disruptions in these segments could severely impact European supply chains.

➡️ Trade vulnerabilities are increasingly concentrated on Chinese imports 📈: China’s share in the EU’s trade dependencies has risen, while the share of the US and the rest of the world has decreased by 3 to 10 percentage points.

✅ High concentration of suppliers outside the EU
✅ Very low domestic production within the EU
✅ Very limited substitution possibilities between suppliers in case of shocks

➡️ Out of 5,381 products imported by the EU27, the # of vulnerabilities fluctuates between 359 (large criteria) and 29 (using the most restrictive methodology with our five criteria developed with Isabelle). This small number does not mean low risk, these are strong vulnerabilities characterized by:

🔎 My contribution to the @eib.org's report explores these questions over a longer time horizon than our @cepr.org paper with Isabelle Mejean.

💡Here are my key findings:

@crestumr.bsky.social @ipparis.bsky.social @polytechniqueparis.bsky.social @cnrs.bsky.social @banquedefrance-off.bsky.social