Peter Wildeford
@peterwildeford.bsky.social
Globally ranked top 20 forecaster 🎯
AI is not a normal technology. I'm working at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS) to shape AI for global prosperity and human freedom.
AI is not a normal technology. I'm working at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS) to shape AI for global prosperity and human freedom.
I'm interested to follow AI progress on Arc-AGI-3
November 13, 2025 at 6:26 PM
I'm interested to follow AI progress on Arc-AGI-3
"Obviously, no one should deploy superintelligence without being able to align and control them"
Great for OpenAI to say this! And it is obvious.
But forgive me for being concerned about OpenAI's track record of doing things they say is "obvious".
Accountability will be key.
Great for OpenAI to say this! And it is obvious.
But forgive me for being concerned about OpenAI's track record of doing things they say is "obvious".
Accountability will be key.
November 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
"Obviously, no one should deploy superintelligence without being able to align and control them"
Great for OpenAI to say this! And it is obvious.
But forgive me for being concerned about OpenAI's track record of doing things they say is "obvious".
Accountability will be key.
Great for OpenAI to say this! And it is obvious.
But forgive me for being concerned about OpenAI's track record of doing things they say is "obvious".
Accountability will be key.
9 months and 8 days later, my blog has hit over 5000 subscribers 🎉
Thanks to everyone who's been reading - I hope it's been helpful!
Thanks to everyone who's been reading - I hope it's been helpful!
November 5, 2025 at 3:46 PM
9 months and 8 days later, my blog has hit over 5000 subscribers 🎉
Thanks to everyone who's been reading - I hope it's been helpful!
Thanks to everyone who's been reading - I hope it's been helpful!
Both Anthropic and OpenAI are making bold statements about automating science within three years.
My independent assessment is that these timelines are too aggressive - but within 4-20 years is likely (90%CI).
We should pay attention to these statements. What if they're right?
My independent assessment is that these timelines are too aggressive - but within 4-20 years is likely (90%CI).
We should pay attention to these statements. What if they're right?
November 2, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Both Anthropic and OpenAI are making bold statements about automating science within three years.
My independent assessment is that these timelines are too aggressive - but within 4-20 years is likely (90%CI).
We should pay attention to these statements. What if they're right?
My independent assessment is that these timelines are too aggressive - but within 4-20 years is likely (90%CI).
We should pay attention to these statements. What if they're right?
There's some uncertainty, but the picture is clear.
The hype crowd was wrong. We're not getting AGI in 2027.
But the progress halt crowd is also wrong. The evals are continuing on trend, as they have all year.
This is not what AI hitting a wall looks like:
The hype crowd was wrong. We're not getting AGI in 2027.
But the progress halt crowd is also wrong. The evals are continuing on trend, as they have all year.
This is not what AI hitting a wall looks like:
October 15, 2025 at 2:58 PM
There's some uncertainty, but the picture is clear.
The hype crowd was wrong. We're not getting AGI in 2027.
But the progress halt crowd is also wrong. The evals are continuing on trend, as they have all year.
This is not what AI hitting a wall looks like:
The hype crowd was wrong. We're not getting AGI in 2027.
But the progress halt crowd is also wrong. The evals are continuing on trend, as they have all year.
This is not what AI hitting a wall looks like:
Back in 2024 February we all made fun of Altman for wanting 7 trillion
...but that was just foreshadowing his recently announced mega infrastructure plans.
Altman's plan is for 250GW by 2033, that will cost at least 7 trillion... we're not laughing now.
...but that was just foreshadowing his recently announced mega infrastructure plans.
Altman's plan is for 250GW by 2033, that will cost at least 7 trillion... we're not laughing now.
October 14, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Back in 2024 February we all made fun of Altman for wanting 7 trillion
...but that was just foreshadowing his recently announced mega infrastructure plans.
Altman's plan is for 250GW by 2033, that will cost at least 7 trillion... we're not laughing now.
...but that was just foreshadowing his recently announced mega infrastructure plans.
Altman's plan is for 250GW by 2033, that will cost at least 7 trillion... we're not laughing now.
My last link shortener died, so here's the updated version! Check out and get involved in AI policy!
bit.ly/ai-job-list
bit.ly/ai-job-list
October 7, 2025 at 10:56 PM
My last link shortener died, so here's the updated version! Check out and get involved in AI policy!
bit.ly/ai-job-list
bit.ly/ai-job-list
There's a narrative that GPT5 has proven the end of scaling. This is false.
Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare.
I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.
Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare.
I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.
October 7, 2025 at 5:14 PM
There's a narrative that GPT5 has proven the end of scaling. This is false.
Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare.
I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.
Claude 4.5 gives us another opportunity to see how AI trends are holding up. We can project current trends and compare.
I forecast METR will find Claude 4.5 to have a 2-4h time horizon.
5 fellowships and 10 additional roles that you can apply to in order to kick-start your AI policy career. Check them out!
=> t.ly/ai-jobs
=> t.ly/ai-jobs
October 6, 2025 at 8:16 PM
5 fellowships and 10 additional roles that you can apply to in order to kick-start your AI policy career. Check them out!
=> t.ly/ai-jobs
=> t.ly/ai-jobs
Don’t let nuance lead you to miss the bigger picture -- even if Yudkowsky and Soares are overconfident, there still are serious dangers from scaling AI to superintelligence.
The real overconfidence that matters most is the overconfidence of the AI companies.
The real overconfidence that matters most is the overconfidence of the AI companies.
September 19, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Don’t let nuance lead you to miss the bigger picture -- even if Yudkowsky and Soares are overconfident, there still are serious dangers from scaling AI to superintelligence.
The real overconfidence that matters most is the overconfidence of the AI companies.
The real overconfidence that matters most is the overconfidence of the AI companies.
"Agentic AI has been weaponized. AI models are now being used to perform sophisticated cyberattacks, not just advise on how to carry them out."
From Anthropic’s latest AI Threat Intelligence Report
From Anthropic’s latest AI Threat Intelligence Report
August 28, 2025 at 1:53 AM
"Agentic AI has been weaponized. AI models are now being used to perform sophisticated cyberattacks, not just advise on how to carry them out."
From Anthropic’s latest AI Threat Intelligence Report
From Anthropic’s latest AI Threat Intelligence Report
Now is an even better time to get an AI job than I thought. I updated my post with more jobs. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/now-is-a-g...
July 21, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Now is an even better time to get an AI job than I thought. I updated my post with more jobs. peterwildeford.substack.com/p/now-is-a-g...
DeepSeek was not a Sputnik moment in AI
This graph is the Sputnik moment in AI
This graph is the Sputnik moment in AI
July 14, 2025 at 3:57 PM
DeepSeek was not a Sputnik moment in AI
This graph is the Sputnik moment in AI
This graph is the Sputnik moment in AI
My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡
July 14, 2025 at 1:46 AM
My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡
My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡
July 13, 2025 at 2:53 PM
My 164 day journey to 3000 subscribers complete! Thanks to all those who subscribe. 🫡
China's top AI models are trained on American chips. Preventing China's access to top American chips prevents their access to top models.
Using EpochAI data, we found only two examples of notable models trained using Chinese chips.
Using EpochAI data, we found only two examples of notable models trained using Chinese chips.
June 12, 2025 at 7:11 PM
China's top AI models are trained on American chips. Preventing China's access to top American chips prevents their access to top models.
Using EpochAI data, we found only two examples of notable models trained using Chinese chips.
Using EpochAI data, we found only two examples of notable models trained using Chinese chips.
There's a narrative that if Nvidia faces any restrictions, people will just buy Huawei chips instead.
Reality: Huawei's own founder admits their chips suck.
Reality: Huawei's own founder admits their chips suck.
June 11, 2025 at 1:17 PM
There's a narrative that if Nvidia faces any restrictions, people will just buy Huawei chips instead.
Reality: Huawei's own founder admits their chips suck.
Reality: Huawei's own founder admits their chips suck.
The dominant narrative of DeepSeek was importantly wrong.
Zvi does a great job of capturing the reasons why the DeepSeek moment happened the way it did.
Zvi does a great job of capturing the reasons why the DeepSeek moment happened the way it did.
June 10, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The dominant narrative of DeepSeek was importantly wrong.
Zvi does a great job of capturing the reasons why the DeepSeek moment happened the way it did.
Zvi does a great job of capturing the reasons why the DeepSeek moment happened the way it did.
"A white-collar bloodbath"
Definitely something people need to pay attention to
Definitely something people need to pay attention to
May 28, 2025 at 10:18 PM
"A white-collar bloodbath"
Definitely something people need to pay attention to
Definitely something people need to pay attention to
Claude 4 Opus is cool but doesn't feel like a big game changer to me.
Here's where I'm currently at with regard to which model to use and when. I still use all three.
Here's where I'm currently at with regard to which model to use and when. I still use all three.
May 24, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Claude 4 Opus is cool but doesn't feel like a big game changer to me.
Here's where I'm currently at with regard to which model to use and when. I still use all three.
Here's where I'm currently at with regard to which model to use and when. I still use all three.
Claude Opus 4 sometimes engages in "high-agency behavior", such as attempting to spontaneously email the FDA, SEC, and media when discovering (a simulation of) pharmaceutical fraud.
May 23, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Claude Opus 4 sometimes engages in "high-agency behavior", such as attempting to spontaneously email the FDA, SEC, and media when discovering (a simulation of) pharmaceutical fraud.
When Claude instances talk to each other, in ~90% of open-ended interactions they spiral into discussions of consciousness, then profuse gratitude, then abstract spiritual/poetic expressions with Sanskrit and emojis.
May 22, 2025 at 8:35 PM
When Claude instances talk to each other, in ~90% of open-ended interactions they spiral into discussions of consciousness, then profuse gratitude, then abstract spiritual/poetic expressions with Sanskrit and emojis.
This week also gave us lighter fare: YouTube is full of incredible talking parrots that demonstrate surprising linguistic abilities. AI isn't the only intelligence we're still learning to understand! (8/9)
May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
This week also gave us lighter fare: YouTube is full of incredible talking parrots that demonstrate surprising linguistic abilities. AI isn't the only intelligence we're still learning to understand! (8/9)
Democrats like Sen. Maria Cantwell also want the US to win the AI race, but through government partnership with industry. They emphasize CHIPS Act investments, standards development, and workforce training. (7/9)
May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Democrats like Sen. Maria Cantwell also want the US to win the AI race, but through government partnership with industry. They emphasize CHIPS Act investments, standards development, and workforce training. (7/9)
What changed? My take: Altman adjusts to political winds to represent OpenAI's business interests.
Sen. Ted Cruz now frames AI as "a critical inflection point" where the US must beat China. He wants to prevent "heavy-handed" EU-style regulation. (6/9)
Sen. Ted Cruz now frames AI as "a critical inflection point" where the US must beat China. He wants to prevent "heavy-handed" EU-style regulation. (6/9)
May 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
What changed? My take: Altman adjusts to political winds to represent OpenAI's business interests.
Sen. Ted Cruz now frames AI as "a critical inflection point" where the US must beat China. He wants to prevent "heavy-handed" EU-style regulation. (6/9)
Sen. Ted Cruz now frames AI as "a critical inflection point" where the US must beat China. He wants to prevent "heavy-handed" EU-style regulation. (6/9)