That’s where I think it helps to have choices and to work on what you are more certain has a higher expected return. Question isn’t whether to work on something but what to work on of all the things that could be worth doing.

Ahh… that’s fair. I think of it this way. Someone decides it’s worth stepping up to the plate. They believe they can connect with the ball. Double would be great. Sometimes they hit a homerun or grand slam. They didn’t not predict it, but didn’t expect it. No harm being realistic in one’s optimism.

Arguably the people who invest successfully in these trends predicted these things, even if they didn’t write about it (but they do; gotta look). Some of us bet plenty of money on obesity b/f glp1s… wrongly. Novo and Lilly predicted glp1s could be big… rightly. Someone’s always getting it right. ;)

Sure, interesting hypothesis, among others (e.g. tau). Meanwhile, when a drug specifically lowers X and improves Y, that's pretty strong evidence that X is "involved" in Y. Doesn't mean X is everything. But it's probably something. And maybe microglia and tau are good drug targets, too.

We’ll soon open up application for the next No Patient Left Behind fellowship. Completing the “Biotech Unveiled” course & earning a certificate (gotta score well) qualifies one to apply for the fellowship.

Will likely also be part of applying to our TechAltas division.

And then there’s the question of algos.

But so far, the fact that @erictopol.bsky.social has the most followers and highest follower/post ratio I’ve seen here is heartening. Good to see a bent.

Maybe just my algo, though :)

Good luck Bluesky.

I’m guessing that as the platform matures and people saturate their target market, the ratios won’t be as useful. But for now, Bluesky and many people are it offer a dynamic range in which to appreciate what diffuses through its thick liquid (twitter is more a gas).

…interesting someone might be. Some people have a <1 ratio, many are around 10, and some standouts are at 100.

I would say this is like a virus’s r (which indicates how infectious it is) except that followers effectively never decline (everyone stays infected :)

It’s a start. That’s how progress works. It compounds. I choose to see the possibilities and look forward to hearing from others who do.

lowering it is relevant to disease improvement. That’s what matters.

amyoid isn't "the" issue but it is part of the issue, which is why the current drugs work at all. That's ok. Some diseases are complex and solving them requires developing a whole toolkit. Cancers can require dozens of drugs. heart disease, dozens.

Ain’t that the truth. My daughter is eleven and has food allergies. She feared her EpiPen. asked me regularly how intranasal epinephrine was coming along. Took years… but was just approved and transformed her life. My son has celiac. No cracks yet.

Yes, that’s indeed the pickle. Pace of progress suggests we’ll learn a lot in next few years, which is a blink.

Sure, when problems have one right answer, then crack can only mean to solve. In medicine, we take joy in progress.

Eg I’m not saying Alz is cracked… I thought it might never be, yet now we’re making progress (it’s cracking :). Gives hope that last years of life won’t be stolen by dementia.