One final October chart… Queensland had its hottest October on record… here’s how it fared for mean temperatures. (All charts via BoM)

And October’s minimums were also well above the long-run average, behind only the Octobers in 2015 and 2024…

And for mean temperatures, last month was a near-equal second hottest October. Last month’s anomaly was 2.51C above the 1961-90, and the previous October in 2024 had a 2.52C anomaly. Both lagged 2015’s October anomaly of just over 3C:

And October rainfall was close to the long-run national average..

And for year yo date, southeastern Australia including Tasmania has been pretty dry…via Bom

Heat is also forecast to be pretty uniform across Sydney…so we might see a heavy load on the grid…

Meanwhile, Sydney looks likely to post its hottest ever October, and quite possibly the largest anomaly for any month (and the data goes back to 1859)…
Via Weatherzone

Evening light may suit the sculptures better…

Some might say ‘SMR technology will advance’… that might be true. But advances in solar, wind and batteries are certain. (And the report does not seem to account for those gains). And there is scant attention to energy efficiency, which is a pity since that typically has the best investment returns.

Also interesting: a new gas plant will take 6 yrs to build, there are no plans for new coal, and no hint nuclear power has a role to play. As this view is from the only LNP government on the mainland (and the Lib govt in Tasmania is no different), I wonder if federal LNP will change its nuclear tune

As for the planned extension of coal-fired plants beyond their ‘technical lives’. I’m no engineer but it would seem optimistic to assume Callide B’s 2 units can be extended NINETEEN years beyond their designed lives (especially if they have to ramp up and down). Tarong’s 5 units go an extra 13 yrs.

Also re demand, the Qld report only assumes a ‘slow increase in transport electrification’…(and then a ‘steady increase’ from 2035-50). There’ll also only be ‘minimal industrial electrification’. On both counts, this report misses the rapidly changing economics and tech favouring electrification…

The 2015 ref weather yr was compared with 2011 to provide ‘sensitivity’, since that was a yr of lower solar yield. It’s true that was a relatively wet yr for both Qld and East Aus, and mild too. (Only 2000 was cooler this century for both regions). Power demand would have lower, I bet, in 2011 too.

Indeed, the report recognises that one factor that ‘may influence modelled pathways’ is the impact of weather on the yield of solar and wind… but they probably should consider the impact of demand for energy (and on that basis, 2015 doesn’t look like a very apt reference year)….
(Data via BoM)

But it’s perhaps better to gauge eastern Australia since Queensland operates in the national electricity market (which is mostly eastern Aust). On that score, 2015 is a relatively mild one for mean temps with seven of the following nine years hotter. (2024 was more than 0.4C hotter than 2015.)