Pete Massie
@petemassie.bsky.social
Energy systems, geothermal power, and occasionally football.
Much criticism of Canada's LNG plans focuses on potential oversupply.
But markets aren't just 'first come first serve'. In the long run, it's your place on the supply curve that matters.
Looks like Canada can compete. Any other supply curves out there that see it otherwise?
But markets aren't just 'first come first serve'. In the long run, it's your place on the supply curve that matters.
Looks like Canada can compete. Any other supply curves out there that see it otherwise?
November 24, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Much criticism of Canada's LNG plans focuses on potential oversupply.
But markets aren't just 'first come first serve'. In the long run, it's your place on the supply curve that matters.
Looks like Canada can compete. Any other supply curves out there that see it otherwise?
But markets aren't just 'first come first serve'. In the long run, it's your place on the supply curve that matters.
Looks like Canada can compete. Any other supply curves out there that see it otherwise?
Deeper can be cheaper.
It might seem counter-intuitive that drilling deeper can actually lower costs for geothermal projects.
But as you reach higher temperatures, you need fewer wells to generate the same amount of power - and your surface plant gets more productive.
It might seem counter-intuitive that drilling deeper can actually lower costs for geothermal projects.
But as you reach higher temperatures, you need fewer wells to generate the same amount of power - and your surface plant gets more productive.
November 21, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Deeper can be cheaper.
It might seem counter-intuitive that drilling deeper can actually lower costs for geothermal projects.
But as you reach higher temperatures, you need fewer wells to generate the same amount of power - and your surface plant gets more productive.
It might seem counter-intuitive that drilling deeper can actually lower costs for geothermal projects.
But as you reach higher temperatures, you need fewer wells to generate the same amount of power - and your surface plant gets more productive.
What would geothermal power cost in Canada?
Local conditions have a big impact - but high temperature regions in BC and NWT are already competitive at costs of ~US$100 / MWh.
With innovation costs could fall to less than half that.
Local conditions have a big impact - but high temperature regions in BC and NWT are already competitive at costs of ~US$100 / MWh.
With innovation costs could fall to less than half that.
November 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
What would geothermal power cost in Canada?
Local conditions have a big impact - but high temperature regions in BC and NWT are already competitive at costs of ~US$100 / MWh.
With innovation costs could fall to less than half that.
Local conditions have a big impact - but high temperature regions in BC and NWT are already competitive at costs of ~US$100 / MWh.
With innovation costs could fall to less than half that.
Friendly reminder: power prices change dramatically through the day.
Alberta's electricity price is ~$25 / MWh overnight - but spikes ~40X to $800 at peak. This happens in most (if not all) markets.
This underscores the value of reliable generation and demand-side measures
Alberta's electricity price is ~$25 / MWh overnight - but spikes ~40X to $800 at peak. This happens in most (if not all) markets.
This underscores the value of reliable generation and demand-side measures
November 19, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Friendly reminder: power prices change dramatically through the day.
Alberta's electricity price is ~$25 / MWh overnight - but spikes ~40X to $800 at peak. This happens in most (if not all) markets.
This underscores the value of reliable generation and demand-side measures
Alberta's electricity price is ~$25 / MWh overnight - but spikes ~40X to $800 at peak. This happens in most (if not all) markets.
This underscores the value of reliable generation and demand-side measures
Why is geothermal power having a moment?
We're learning how to drill faster - a lot faster.
Drilling is one of the key costs - and rigs are rented by the day.
So as drilling speeds accelerate, costs fall.
Chart via @cleanaircatf.bsky.social
We're learning how to drill faster - a lot faster.
Drilling is one of the key costs - and rigs are rented by the day.
So as drilling speeds accelerate, costs fall.
Chart via @cleanaircatf.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Why is geothermal power having a moment?
We're learning how to drill faster - a lot faster.
Drilling is one of the key costs - and rigs are rented by the day.
So as drilling speeds accelerate, costs fall.
Chart via @cleanaircatf.bsky.social
We're learning how to drill faster - a lot faster.
Drilling is one of the key costs - and rigs are rented by the day.
So as drilling speeds accelerate, costs fall.
Chart via @cleanaircatf.bsky.social
The only table you need from the IEA's WEO is from the STEPS Scenario
STEPS includes more realistic assumptions about how energy systems are changing - rather than assuming they pause like the Current Policy Scenario
IEA hasn't 'changed course' - STEPS and CPS show diverging roles for fossil fuels
STEPS includes more realistic assumptions about how energy systems are changing - rather than assuming they pause like the Current Policy Scenario
IEA hasn't 'changed course' - STEPS and CPS show diverging roles for fossil fuels
November 12, 2025 at 4:49 PM
The only table you need from the IEA's WEO is from the STEPS Scenario
STEPS includes more realistic assumptions about how energy systems are changing - rather than assuming they pause like the Current Policy Scenario
IEA hasn't 'changed course' - STEPS and CPS show diverging roles for fossil fuels
STEPS includes more realistic assumptions about how energy systems are changing - rather than assuming they pause like the Current Policy Scenario
IEA hasn't 'changed course' - STEPS and CPS show diverging roles for fossil fuels
It's an especially puzzling finding as the IEA's WEO projects solar costs to fall dramatically - even in the CPS.
November 12, 2025 at 1:13 PM
It's an especially puzzling finding as the IEA's WEO projects solar costs to fall dramatically - even in the CPS.
It's one thing to assume that solar deployments slow.
Even if you disagree, it's reasonable to expect solar to hit the end stage of the standard S-curve at some point.
But anyone who's seen this chart from @nathanielbullard.com is asking themselves - do we really think we're there already?
Even if you disagree, it's reasonable to expect solar to hit the end stage of the standard S-curve at some point.
But anyone who's seen this chart from @nathanielbullard.com is asking themselves - do we really think we're there already?
November 12, 2025 at 1:13 PM
It's one thing to assume that solar deployments slow.
Even if you disagree, it's reasonable to expect solar to hit the end stage of the standard S-curve at some point.
But anyone who's seen this chart from @nathanielbullard.com is asking themselves - do we really think we're there already?
Even if you disagree, it's reasonable to expect solar to hit the end stage of the standard S-curve at some point.
But anyone who's seen this chart from @nathanielbullard.com is asking themselves - do we really think we're there already?
The IEA's World Energy Outlook has been released - but is it credible?
This year's WEO includes a Current Policies Scenario that projects solar deployments stall at 540 GW per year - despite falling costs.
That's a red flag for me. Here's why:
This year's WEO includes a Current Policies Scenario that projects solar deployments stall at 540 GW per year - despite falling costs.
That's a red flag for me. Here's why:
November 12, 2025 at 1:13 PM
The IEA's World Energy Outlook has been released - but is it credible?
This year's WEO includes a Current Policies Scenario that projects solar deployments stall at 540 GW per year - despite falling costs.
That's a red flag for me. Here's why:
This year's WEO includes a Current Policies Scenario that projects solar deployments stall at 540 GW per year - despite falling costs.
That's a red flag for me. Here's why:
Hopefully now people will stop intentionally ramming my car
November 6, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Hopefully now people will stop intentionally ramming my car
Thanks for sharing this.
Interesting to see that capacity in the pipeline is well in excess of the 1.5 GW the IEA just forecast for 2030.
Of course it won't all come online by then, but shows there's a lot more coming down the pipe!
Interesting to see that capacity in the pipeline is well in excess of the 1.5 GW the IEA just forecast for 2030.
Of course it won't all come online by then, but shows there's a lot more coming down the pipe!
November 4, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Thanks for sharing this.
Interesting to see that capacity in the pipeline is well in excess of the 1.5 GW the IEA just forecast for 2030.
Of course it won't all come online by then, but shows there's a lot more coming down the pipe!
Interesting to see that capacity in the pipeline is well in excess of the 1.5 GW the IEA just forecast for 2030.
Of course it won't all come online by then, but shows there's a lot more coming down the pipe!
Actual photo of the benches clearing at Game 7
November 2, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Actual photo of the benches clearing at Game 7
Mokyr's Nobel-winning insight: growth is driven by the interplay of scientific discovery & application by skilled practitioners.
It's a perfect description of the innovation happening in geothermal power today - and underscores the value of the skills in Canada's O&G sector
It's a perfect description of the innovation happening in geothermal power today - and underscores the value of the skills in Canada's O&G sector
October 29, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Mokyr's Nobel-winning insight: growth is driven by the interplay of scientific discovery & application by skilled practitioners.
It's a perfect description of the innovation happening in geothermal power today - and underscores the value of the skills in Canada's O&G sector
It's a perfect description of the innovation happening in geothermal power today - and underscores the value of the skills in Canada's O&G sector
I've always thought this was an unfair criticism. Oil production hit record levels under Biden. Regardless of support for other technologies, the argument that Biden was anti-oil and gas always struck me as a strange one
August 23, 2025 at 2:10 PM
I've always thought this was an unfair criticism. Oil production hit record levels under Biden. Regardless of support for other technologies, the argument that Biden was anti-oil and gas always struck me as a strange one
Ethanol in shambles
August 11, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Ethanol in shambles
Electricity is vital to energy security.
Net zero or not - growing power demand is baked in.
In fact, we'll use nearly as much electricity under 'Business as Usual' as we would under Net Zero.
Expanding the supply of reliable and affordable power is essential no matter what future we choose.
Net zero or not - growing power demand is baked in.
In fact, we'll use nearly as much electricity under 'Business as Usual' as we would under Net Zero.
Expanding the supply of reliable and affordable power is essential no matter what future we choose.
August 8, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Electricity is vital to energy security.
Net zero or not - growing power demand is baked in.
In fact, we'll use nearly as much electricity under 'Business as Usual' as we would under Net Zero.
Expanding the supply of reliable and affordable power is essential no matter what future we choose.
Net zero or not - growing power demand is baked in.
In fact, we'll use nearly as much electricity under 'Business as Usual' as we would under Net Zero.
Expanding the supply of reliable and affordable power is essential no matter what future we choose.
AOSTRA's Underground Test Facility catalyzed the in situ oil sands sector.
The impact was transformative for Alberta and Canada - one of the best examples of Canadian industrial policy.
But maybe more importantly, AOSTRA made some sweet hats, and at least one still exists. 💡🔌
The impact was transformative for Alberta and Canada - one of the best examples of Canadian industrial policy.
But maybe more importantly, AOSTRA made some sweet hats, and at least one still exists. 💡🔌
July 28, 2025 at 5:43 PM
AOSTRA's Underground Test Facility catalyzed the in situ oil sands sector.
The impact was transformative for Alberta and Canada - one of the best examples of Canadian industrial policy.
But maybe more importantly, AOSTRA made some sweet hats, and at least one still exists. 💡🔌
The impact was transformative for Alberta and Canada - one of the best examples of Canadian industrial policy.
But maybe more importantly, AOSTRA made some sweet hats, and at least one still exists. 💡🔌
LCOE is the most useful metric we have in electricity.
Yes: its Achilles' Heel is comparing renewables to baseload. Pure garbage!
But LCOE is great at understanding so many other important questions.
Achilles' had a weakness, but is still the GOAT. Nothing's perfect.
Yes: its Achilles' Heel is comparing renewables to baseload. Pure garbage!
But LCOE is great at understanding so many other important questions.
Achilles' had a weakness, but is still the GOAT. Nothing's perfect.
July 24, 2025 at 8:06 PM
LCOE is the most useful metric we have in electricity.
Yes: its Achilles' Heel is comparing renewables to baseload. Pure garbage!
But LCOE is great at understanding so many other important questions.
Achilles' had a weakness, but is still the GOAT. Nothing's perfect.
Yes: its Achilles' Heel is comparing renewables to baseload. Pure garbage!
But LCOE is great at understanding so many other important questions.
Achilles' had a weakness, but is still the GOAT. Nothing's perfect.
I think it's the energy that isn't waste.
Lawrence-Livermore's Sankey diagram does a great job of showing what this is, but you raise a good question on the precise definition.
I think the challenge in defining it lays in the variety of ways energy can is made, moved, and consumed.
Lawrence-Livermore's Sankey diagram does a great job of showing what this is, but you raise a good question on the precise definition.
I think the challenge in defining it lays in the variety of ways energy can is made, moved, and consumed.
July 23, 2025 at 8:00 PM
I think it's the energy that isn't waste.
Lawrence-Livermore's Sankey diagram does a great job of showing what this is, but you raise a good question on the precise definition.
I think the challenge in defining it lays in the variety of ways energy can is made, moved, and consumed.
Lawrence-Livermore's Sankey diagram does a great job of showing what this is, but you raise a good question on the precise definition.
I think the challenge in defining it lays in the variety of ways energy can is made, moved, and consumed.
Geothermal power costs look flat - but don't be deceived.
Projects are shifting from high temperature (Flash, yellow) to lower-temperature (Binary, orange).
Even without broad EGS deployment, we're seeing geothermal push the boundaries of what's possible.
And capex is down ~30% since 20212.
Projects are shifting from high temperature (Flash, yellow) to lower-temperature (Binary, orange).
Even without broad EGS deployment, we're seeing geothermal push the boundaries of what's possible.
And capex is down ~30% since 20212.
July 22, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Geothermal power costs look flat - but don't be deceived.
Projects are shifting from high temperature (Flash, yellow) to lower-temperature (Binary, orange).
Even without broad EGS deployment, we're seeing geothermal push the boundaries of what's possible.
And capex is down ~30% since 20212.
Projects are shifting from high temperature (Flash, yellow) to lower-temperature (Binary, orange).
Even without broad EGS deployment, we're seeing geothermal push the boundaries of what's possible.
And capex is down ~30% since 20212.
Excited to see how 'double-decker' wind turbines stack up.
This design would be 300m tall - nearly *triple* the average hub height of a US onshore wind turbine.
Why go so high? Wind power is highly sensitive to wind speeds, which increase with height.
This design would be 300m tall - nearly *triple* the average hub height of a US onshore wind turbine.
Why go so high? Wind power is highly sensitive to wind speeds, which increase with height.
July 17, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Excited to see how 'double-decker' wind turbines stack up.
This design would be 300m tall - nearly *triple* the average hub height of a US onshore wind turbine.
Why go so high? Wind power is highly sensitive to wind speeds, which increase with height.
This design would be 300m tall - nearly *triple* the average hub height of a US onshore wind turbine.
Why go so high? Wind power is highly sensitive to wind speeds, which increase with height.
Gas-fired turbine costs look like they're climbing in Canada too.
SK's Great Plains plant opened in 2024, and cost $825M for 377 MW - $2200 / kW.
The 370 MW Aspen plant, scheduled for 2027-28 - will cost 1.4 -1.7 billion. That's about $3800 - 4600 / kW.
SK's Great Plains plant opened in 2024, and cost $825M for 377 MW - $2200 / kW.
The 370 MW Aspen plant, scheduled for 2027-28 - will cost 1.4 -1.7 billion. That's about $3800 - 4600 / kW.
July 11, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Gas-fired turbine costs look like they're climbing in Canada too.
SK's Great Plains plant opened in 2024, and cost $825M for 377 MW - $2200 / kW.
The 370 MW Aspen plant, scheduled for 2027-28 - will cost 1.4 -1.7 billion. That's about $3800 - 4600 / kW.
SK's Great Plains plant opened in 2024, and cost $825M for 377 MW - $2200 / kW.
The 370 MW Aspen plant, scheduled for 2027-28 - will cost 1.4 -1.7 billion. That's about $3800 - 4600 / kW.
Amidst DOE cuts, US funding for geothermal is about to surge.
Historically, geothermal has been underfunded relative to other renewables. So it's an important opportunity to move the needle and match the gains we've seen in wind and solar.
But innovation systems are global - and that means...
Historically, geothermal has been underfunded relative to other renewables. So it's an important opportunity to move the needle and match the gains we've seen in wind and solar.
But innovation systems are global - and that means...
July 10, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Amidst DOE cuts, US funding for geothermal is about to surge.
Historically, geothermal has been underfunded relative to other renewables. So it's an important opportunity to move the needle and match the gains we've seen in wind and solar.
But innovation systems are global - and that means...
Historically, geothermal has been underfunded relative to other renewables. So it's an important opportunity to move the needle and match the gains we've seen in wind and solar.
But innovation systems are global - and that means...
Amazing how far directional drilling has come in the past 30 years
July 9, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Amazing how far directional drilling has come in the past 30 years