This study uses data from almost 200 studies going back to the 1970s, with data from almost 2000 unique sites. Knowing what it takes to collect this data and publish these individual studies, it is humbling to be able to use their findings in a joint analysis – standing on the shoulder of giants.

Our modelling of future methane emissions account for both climate warming (through a space-for-time framework) and permafrost thaw (through landscape transitions caused by thaw), and we find that these effects have important interactions – although the direct effect of warming dominates.

As a lead author of Chapter Four, Natali, project lead of @permafrostpathways.bsky.social joins 20 other experts from 16 nations to gather the best available science on land surface processes, interactions between the cryosphere, ocean, and atmosphere, and changes in carbon sinks and sources.