$RMV.L
$FDS
$SMWH.L

Clearly a risk that the new CEO does some silly acquisition but he spoke sensibly to this on the call

At the current valuation I would not be surprised to see acquirers get interested or activists get involved to step up the buy backs above all else

What am I missing?

It may mean that the new CEO may have been incentivised to lower guidance and paint a picture of more investment needed when the reality could be much better

In fact other management seemed far more positive than the CEO on the recent analyst call

The cynical take here is around the new CEO incentives. Some very large figures here and $22m seems to have an entry price "in the fall" whatever that means.

Found an approx capex breakdown from the annual report. So approx normalised free cash flow of 53m, add back expansionary capex of 67m then deduct the 30m overstatement gets to 90m. On 800m mkt cap, so 11% free cash flow yield. Could be interesting .... especially with the activist on the register

I tried to get my head round the low free cash flow today. Do you have a sense of what their maintenance capex is likely to be (ie excluding new store openings)?

The Greggs' app is interesting. I've not been a regular at Greggs but started recently/got the app as I bought shares. Unlike other cafe/food apps I've used, you pre pay onto the app in "round" £s. Wonder if this is likely to give the company decent float over time as well as the loyalty/data?

I get Fcf in the last few full periods as 15m and 10m ...

Perhaps full year fcf will be a lot stronger. Current half year was c8m.

It has given me reasons to be more cautious

Please correct me. What have I missed?

And stating the obvious, fcf is needed to pay off debt. Not EBITDA.

They have ~85m of interest bearing debt. assuming fcf increases by the same % as adjusted operating profit is guided to grow, they appear on track for ~10m fcf. Which suggests it will take them some time to get the debt down..

Came to a similar conclusion after listening to a few of their investor calls recently. Trying to figure out $KITW.LN currently which has a similar model but much cheaper valuation

Added #gle to my basket of homebuilders (#vty and #btrw) . Announcement today didn't seem overly bad to me and reservation rates are encouraging. At 0.7x tang book it looks attractive over a 3 year view. They have decent embedded margin coming through judging from the last question on the call today

5) menu changes and smart marketing 6) continued growth in evening offer

Started position today and hoping some of these come through

a.storyblok.com/f/162306/x/8...

Hoping for growth from 1) new own store openings 2) maturing of recent store openings (stores go from 20 to 30% ROCE as they mature) 3) efficiency from using up excess capacity from recent distribution centre investments 4) growth in franchising (fastest growing part in LFL terms)

I see you've covered a lot of UK and European distribution cos and hold/held KITW. Mind if I ask how you view things after the recent announcement/falls?

And free cash flow to equity is like 40%, well below historical levels when rates were very low but it shows that their economics still work out very well in this higher rate environment

I really enjoyed your first book. And my 10 year old loves it too. To have a book that can engage those two audiences is great. Looking forward to reading this new one!

$wise.l $wise.ln #wise
Looking forward to the capital markets day tomorrow. Hoping it won’t be overshadowed by macro news….

Surprised Interactive Brokers isn't referenced. Low cost, low FX rates and good range of non-uk shares covered. If you are low activity but invest in more non-uk shares they are good value. Recently moved to them for my shares ISA.
www.interactivebrokers.co.uk/en/accounts/...