Peak Trading Research
@peaktrading.bsky.social
Quantitative commodity research.
🛢️ Brent Crude Oil has risen 88% of the time over the 44 trading sessions starting December 15th.
📈 Energy prices tend to rally from mid-December through mid-February.
📊 Seasonals favor the upside. It's time for a bounce.
#energymarkets #seasonals
📈 Energy prices tend to rally from mid-December through mid-February.
📊 Seasonals favor the upside. It's time for a bounce.
#energymarkets #seasonals
December 14, 2025 at 5:33 PM
🛢️ Brent Crude Oil has risen 88% of the time over the 44 trading sessions starting December 15th.
📈 Energy prices tend to rally from mid-December through mid-February.
📊 Seasonals favor the upside. It's time for a bounce.
#energymarkets #seasonals
📈 Energy prices tend to rally from mid-December through mid-February.
📊 Seasonals favor the upside. It's time for a bounce.
#energymarkets #seasonals
#Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed; the dollar is weak, but Crude Oil is lower. 🛢️Friday's COT data showed that funds bought a lot of Corn in mid-November. 🌽 Soybeans are overbought. South American weather is non-threatening. 🌤️
December 14, 2025 at 5:46 AM
#Ags this week: The macro mood is mixed; the dollar is weak, but Crude Oil is lower. 🛢️Friday's COT data showed that funds bought a lot of Corn in mid-November. 🌽 Soybeans are overbought. South American weather is non-threatening. 🌤️
Ags this week: The macro mood is bullish ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy decision (96% odds of a cut), but the Brazilian real is weak against the U.S. dollar. 🏛️ The December WASDE report (Tuesday) rarely features U.S. production changes. Corn demand is strong. Cattle 📅🚀.
December 7, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Ags this week: The macro mood is bullish ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy decision (96% odds of a cut), but the Brazilian real is weak against the U.S. dollar. 🏛️ The December WASDE report (Tuesday) rarely features U.S. production changes. Corn demand is strong. Cattle 📅🚀.
Commodity prices climbed again in November. 🌱📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index - a diversified basket of agriculture, energy, and metals futures contracts - rose +2.9% ... following October's strong +4.9% gain.
#inflation #macromatters #markets
The Bloomberg Commodity Index - a diversified basket of agriculture, energy, and metals futures contracts - rose +2.9% ... following October's strong +4.9% gain.
#inflation #macromatters #markets
December 1, 2025 at 5:15 AM
Commodity prices climbed again in November. 🌱📈
The Bloomberg Commodity Index - a diversified basket of agriculture, energy, and metals futures contracts - rose +2.9% ... following October's strong +4.9% gain.
#inflation #macromatters #markets
The Bloomberg Commodity Index - a diversified basket of agriculture, energy, and metals futures contracts - rose +2.9% ... following October's strong +4.9% gain.
#inflation #macromatters #markets
🌽 #Ags this week: The odds of a Fed rate cut are rising, and the U.S. dollar is lower against important commodity currencies. We'll see ADP jobs data on Wednesday ahead of the Fed meeting on December 10th. 📊 China bought more Soybeans last week. S.A. weather is non-threatening.
November 30, 2025 at 5:37 AM
🌽 #Ags this week: The odds of a Fed rate cut are rising, and the U.S. dollar is lower against important commodity currencies. We'll see ADP jobs data on Wednesday ahead of the Fed meeting on December 10th. 📊 China bought more Soybeans last week. S.A. weather is non-threatening.
🐂 #Ags this week: Macro mood stays bearish. We'll see PPI inflation data Tuesday ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. 🌱 China bought more Soybeans last week. ☀️ S.A. weather looks drier this week for the wet parts of Argentina and S. Brazil. November seasonals are bearish.📉
November 23, 2025 at 5:41 AM
🐂 #Ags this week: Macro mood stays bearish. We'll see PPI inflation data Tuesday ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. 🌱 China bought more Soybeans last week. ☀️ S.A. weather looks drier this week for the wet parts of Argentina and S. Brazil. November seasonals are bearish.📉
COT positioning reports won’t be fully current until January 23rd, but price action and open interest changes point to fund buying 📈 Soybeans and Meal 🌱 and selling 📉 Sugar, Cattle, and Hogs. 🍬
November 22, 2025 at 5:19 PM
COT positioning reports won’t be fully current until January 23rd, but price action and open interest changes point to fund buying 📈 Soybeans and Meal 🌱 and selling 📉 Sugar, Cattle, and Hogs. 🍬
🌾 #Ags this week: Last Friday's WASDE was bearish, with larger-than-expected Corn yields, bigger Corn stocks, and less Soybean demand. 📉 We'll see NOPA crush data Monday, Fed minutes Wednesday, and *September* NFP jobs data Thursday. 📊 Brazil weather is non-threatening. Nov seasonals are bearish. ⚡
November 16, 2025 at 6:37 AM
🌾 #Ags this week: Last Friday's WASDE was bearish, with larger-than-expected Corn yields, bigger Corn stocks, and less Soybean demand. 📉 We'll see NOPA crush data Monday, Fed minutes Wednesday, and *September* NFP jobs data Thursday. 📊 Brazil weather is non-threatening. Nov seasonals are bearish. ⚡
🌽 #Ags this week: Friday's USDA WASDE report will bring sharper focus to U.S. yields, Brazil's crop potential, and Chinese demand. 🌱 Demand signals are mixed: China hasn't confirmed Soybean trade details, and U.S. ag inspections are down, but China did reinstate import licenses. Seasonals. 📉
November 9, 2025 at 6:00 AM
🌽 #Ags this week: Friday's USDA WASDE report will bring sharper focus to U.S. yields, Brazil's crop potential, and Chinese demand. 🌱 Demand signals are mixed: China hasn't confirmed Soybean trade details, and U.S. ag inspections are down, but China did reinstate import licenses. Seasonals. 📉
🌱 #Ags this week: Quiet data week; the focus will be on commodity company earnings and Wednesday's ADP jobs report. 📊 October seasonals worked; BCOM Ag rose +4.3%. November seasonals are bearish. 📉 Brazil is getting rain. 🌧️ NASS announced it will release Crop Production and WASDE reports on Nov 14th
November 2, 2025 at 6:26 AM
🌱 #Ags this week: Quiet data week; the focus will be on commodity company earnings and Wednesday's ADP jobs report. 📊 October seasonals worked; BCOM Ag rose +4.3%. November seasonals are bearish. 📉 Brazil is getting rain. 🌧️ NASS announced it will release Crop Production and WASDE reports on Nov 14th
October was a party for #agriculture markets. 🎉
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index - a basket of grains, oilseeds, meats, and softs futures - rose +4.3%, its best month since January.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index - a basket of grains, oilseeds, meats, and softs futures - rose +4.3%, its best month since January.
November 1, 2025 at 6:50 AM
October was a party for #agriculture markets. 🎉
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index - a basket of grains, oilseeds, meats, and softs futures - rose +4.3%, its best month since January.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index - a basket of grains, oilseeds, meats, and softs futures - rose +4.3%, its best month since January.
Wheat prices usually DROP in November. 📉 Selling short Kansas Wheat futures for the next 26 sessions has made money 10 years in a row. 🌾
November 1, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Wheat prices usually DROP in November. 📉 Selling short Kansas Wheat futures for the next 26 sessions has made money 10 years in a row. 🌾
🌾 #Ags this week: Stock markets are up and Crude Oil is recovering. 📈 Cattle is down due to expanded Argentine beef imports and Mexico's push to resume cross-border trade. 🐂 Seasonals are generally bullish for agriculture markets and bearish for energy markets.
October 26, 2025 at 2:51 PM
🌾 #Ags this week: Stock markets are up and Crude Oil is recovering. 📈 Cattle is down due to expanded Argentine beef imports and Mexico's push to resume cross-border trade. 🐂 Seasonals are generally bullish for agriculture markets and bearish for energy markets.
Soybeans are rallying right on schedule. 📈
October is the most BULLISH stretch of the year and prices are up +2.9% MTD on slow farmer selling, a firmer BRL, and U.S.–China optimism. 🌱🚜
Seasonals point higher into December. 🤞🏼
October is the most BULLISH stretch of the year and prices are up +2.9% MTD on slow farmer selling, a firmer BRL, and U.S.–China optimism. 🌱🚜
Seasonals point higher into December. 🤞🏼
October 21, 2025 at 5:35 AM
Soybeans are rallying right on schedule. 📈
October is the most BULLISH stretch of the year and prices are up +2.9% MTD on slow farmer selling, a firmer BRL, and U.S.–China optimism. 🌱🚜
Seasonals point higher into December. 🤞🏼
October is the most BULLISH stretch of the year and prices are up +2.9% MTD on slow farmer selling, a firmer BRL, and U.S.–China optimism. 🌱🚜
Seasonals point higher into December. 🤞🏼
🌽 #Ags this week: This Friday we'll see U.S. CPI inflation data 📊 ahead of next week's Fed policy decision. 🏛️ Bullish agriculture seasonals got some help last week from reluctant farmer selling, firmer spreads, and lower yield estimates. Crude Oil is cheap and oversold. 🛢️
October 19, 2025 at 4:41 AM
🌽 #Ags this week: This Friday we'll see U.S. CPI inflation data 📊 ahead of next week's Fed policy decision. 🏛️ Bullish agriculture seasonals got some help last week from reluctant farmer selling, firmer spreads, and lower yield estimates. Crude Oil is cheap and oversold. 🛢️
🛢️ Crude Oil for SALE! 📉 Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil are now the world's two most cheap and oversold commodity markets. Brent is down -7.2% MTD and WTI is down -7.7% MTD on growing inventories and global growth concerns. ⛽ Time for a bounce? #CrudeOil #Commodities
October 18, 2025 at 5:33 AM
🛢️ Crude Oil for SALE! 📉 Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil are now the world's two most cheap and oversold commodity markets. Brent is down -7.2% MTD and WTI is down -7.7% MTD on growing inventories and global growth concerns. ⛽ Time for a bounce? #CrudeOil #Commodities
🌱 #Ags this week: Funds sold ag futures on Friday and are now the shortest they've been in 13 months. We'll see delayed CPI data next Friday, October 24th. U.S. weather is wide open for harvest. 🚜 Seasonals are bullish for agriculture markets 📈 and bearish for energy markets. 📉
October 12, 2025 at 5:05 AM
🌱 #Ags this week: Funds sold ag futures on Friday and are now the shortest they've been in 13 months. We'll see delayed CPI data next Friday, October 24th. U.S. weather is wide open for harvest. 🚜 Seasonals are bullish for agriculture markets 📈 and bearish for energy markets. 📉
📉 Escalating U.S.-China trade war tensions, the strong U.S. dollar, and lower energy market prices drove hedge funds to SELL #agriculture futures on Friday. 🌱 We estimate funds have sold roughly -74k contracts of ag futures since the CFTC's final COT data from September 23rd. 📊
October 11, 2025 at 4:17 AM
📉 Escalating U.S.-China trade war tensions, the strong U.S. dollar, and lower energy market prices drove hedge funds to SELL #agriculture futures on Friday. 🌱 We estimate funds have sold roughly -74k contracts of ag futures since the CFTC's final COT data from September 23rd. 📊
🌾 #Ags this week: Fundamentals are bearish (bigger Corn stocks, China boycotting Beans), but non-fundamentals are more supportive (AI & Fed macro momentum, seasonals). The October WASDE will be delayed. U.S. farmers are making solid harvest progress. 🚜 Fed minutes Wednesday. 🏛️
October 5, 2025 at 5:40 AM
🌾 #Ags this week: Fundamentals are bearish (bigger Corn stocks, China boycotting Beans), but non-fundamentals are more supportive (AI & Fed macro momentum, seasonals). The October WASDE will be delayed. U.S. farmers are making solid harvest progress. 🚜 Fed minutes Wednesday. 🏛️
September: Metals soared 📈, Ags slumped 📉
Silver jumped +14.5%, leading a broad metals rally as the Fed’s -25bp rate cut pushed investors toward dollar alternatives. 💰
Meanwhile, agriculture markets fell under harvest pressure, bearish seasonals, and China’s boycott of U.S. Soybeans.
Silver jumped +14.5%, leading a broad metals rally as the Fed’s -25bp rate cut pushed investors toward dollar alternatives. 💰
Meanwhile, agriculture markets fell under harvest pressure, bearish seasonals, and China’s boycott of U.S. Soybeans.
October 1, 2025 at 7:13 AM
September: Metals soared 📈, Ags slumped 📉
Silver jumped +14.5%, leading a broad metals rally as the Fed’s -25bp rate cut pushed investors toward dollar alternatives. 💰
Meanwhile, agriculture markets fell under harvest pressure, bearish seasonals, and China’s boycott of U.S. Soybeans.
Silver jumped +14.5%, leading a broad metals rally as the Fed’s -25bp rate cut pushed investors toward dollar alternatives. 💰
Meanwhile, agriculture markets fell under harvest pressure, bearish seasonals, and China’s boycott of U.S. Soybeans.
Are U.S. government shutdowns BULLISH for #ag markets? 🌾
During the past three shutdowns, both U.S. stock markets and the Agriculture Index moved higher:
Dec 2018 (Border Wall): S&P 500 +10.3%, Ags +2.3%
Jan 2018 (DACA): S&P 500 +0.8%, Ags +0.4%
Oct 2013 (Obamacare) : S&P 500 +3.1%, Ags +1.0%
During the past three shutdowns, both U.S. stock markets and the Agriculture Index moved higher:
Dec 2018 (Border Wall): S&P 500 +10.3%, Ags +2.3%
Jan 2018 (DACA): S&P 500 +0.8%, Ags +0.4%
Oct 2013 (Obamacare) : S&P 500 +3.1%, Ags +1.0%
September 30, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Are U.S. government shutdowns BULLISH for #ag markets? 🌾
During the past three shutdowns, both U.S. stock markets and the Agriculture Index moved higher:
Dec 2018 (Border Wall): S&P 500 +10.3%, Ags +2.3%
Jan 2018 (DACA): S&P 500 +0.8%, Ags +0.4%
Oct 2013 (Obamacare) : S&P 500 +3.1%, Ags +1.0%
During the past three shutdowns, both U.S. stock markets and the Agriculture Index moved higher:
Dec 2018 (Border Wall): S&P 500 +10.3%, Ags +2.3%
Jan 2018 (DACA): S&P 500 +0.8%, Ags +0.4%
Oct 2013 (Obamacare) : S&P 500 +3.1%, Ags +1.0%
🌽 BIG week for #ags! 📊 USDA Stocks (Tues.), possible U.S. govt shutdown (Wed.), and NFP jobs report (Fri.). ⚠️ Shutdown = no export sales, no CFTC reports, no WASDE. 📉 Hedge funds dumped -111k contracts (-$3.9B) last week - shortest in 12 months. 🚀 Seasonals are heating up. 🚜
September 28, 2025 at 4:15 AM
🌽 BIG week for #ags! 📊 USDA Stocks (Tues.), possible U.S. govt shutdown (Wed.), and NFP jobs report (Fri.). ⚠️ Shutdown = no export sales, no CFTC reports, no WASDE. 📉 Hedge funds dumped -111k contracts (-$3.9B) last week - shortest in 12 months. 🚀 Seasonals are heating up. 🚜
🌽 Corn Seasonals are Flashing Green. 🟢 October is historically the best month for Corn futures ... and export demand is strong. 💪🏼 Time for another October rally? 📈
September 27, 2025 at 2:00 PM
🌽 Corn Seasonals are Flashing Green. 🟢 October is historically the best month for Corn futures ... and export demand is strong. 💪🏼 Time for another October rally? 📈
BIG SHORTS! 📉 Non-Commercial speculators were -$3.4B net short in dollars (-585k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. 🌽 This is the *SHORTEST* that funds have been in 12 months. Good weather, big crops, China boycotting U.S. beans, bearish seasonals. 🚜
September 27, 2025 at 9:00 AM
BIG SHORTS! 📉 Non-Commercial speculators were -$3.4B net short in dollars (-585k contracts) across the #agriculture complex as of last Tuesday's market close. 🌽 This is the *SHORTEST* that funds have been in 12 months. Good weather, big crops, China boycotting U.S. beans, bearish seasonals. 🚜
📉 Funds DUMPED #agriculture markets last week: -111k contracts (-$3.9B). The biggest wave of selling since March. 🌱 Mostly Soys and Sugar. Drivers: China's continued boycott of U.S. Soybean purchases, Argentina's export tax pause, bearish late-September seasonals, and the firmer U.S. dollar. 🚜🛥️💵
September 27, 2025 at 4:28 AM
📉 Funds DUMPED #agriculture markets last week: -111k contracts (-$3.9B). The biggest wave of selling since March. 🌱 Mostly Soys and Sugar. Drivers: China's continued boycott of U.S. Soybean purchases, Argentina's export tax pause, bearish late-September seasonals, and the firmer U.S. dollar. 🚜🛥️💵