Not used to meetings in such fancy places!

Strong @cerdi.bsky.social / FERDI showing in Oxford at #OxCSAE2025 💪 Excited to present my research, see lots of cool and important studies, and catch up with other colleagues from all over! #EconSky #EconConf

Enjoyed a great short trip to Copenhagen for the STEG ag and structural transformation workshop. Super cool group of researchers and a great time of feedback and discussion. Thanks @casperworm.bsky.social and Asger Wingender for hosting 🙏 I still can’t get over all the unlocked bikes! #EconSky

Observations from first visit to Copenhagen: There are bikes everywhere! 😍😍😍 Most bikes are unlocked!! 🤯🤯🤯 Most bikers aren’t wearing helmets! 🤕🤕 Interested if anyone has insights about the lock and helmet habits. Otherwise seems like a quite nice city, wish I had more time to explore.

Do other parents with 2(+) kids find it less hard when they get sick both at once or back to back? Both at once is super hard on everyone but over quicker. Back to back is easier to manage in some ways but draining and disruptive and I always end up sick too. Of course, we don't get to choose. Wooh!

What a week for @arsenalfc.bsky.social. 13-3 across 3 matches! After a run where we were struggling to score, looks like the international break really did us some good. #COYG keep it up!!

I’ve never walked the gangplank and I’ve never owned a parrot, but now I have been to Boston in the Fall! 😆 Great conference #NEUDC2024 and enjoyed the visit as well. (For the reference: www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRYB...)

Grateful for the great comments and feedback on my paper on ag shocks and long term conflict at the #FragileLives conference at @humboldtuni.bsky.social in Berlin. Thanks to the organizers for a great conference! #ISDC #HiCN #IGZ #ZeroHungerLab

Is there something unique about desert locusts? No! Severe drought exposure leads to similar long-run increases in violent conflict risk. Methods estimating temporary effects of economic shocks on conflict with FE models may thus underestimate impacts.
 
11/13

Estimates weighted by the inverse of the estimated probability of swarm exposure give a 0.8pp avg increase in annual risk of violent conflict after exposure, driven entirely by ag land, particularly crop cells. This greatly exceeds effects of same year rainfall or temp ⬆️s!
 
7/13

I find no difference in violent conflict risk over the 14y before a cell is exposed to a locust swarm, but large persistent increases over the following 14y. Surprisingly, the largest effects occur after 7+ yrs. Both ACLED and UDCP conflict data show similar patterns.
 
6/13

Locust swarms are hugely destructive, with billions of locusts consuming millions of kilograms of vegetation each day where they land and no defense for farmers. 🦗Flight patterns along migratory routes in years with swarms create quasi-random local variation in exposure.
 
5/13

Why do ag shocks affect conflict? Main economic models emphasize two opposing mechanisms.
1️⃣ Low prices or bad production conditions temporarily ↘️ the MPL in ag so the opportunity cost of fighting falls.
2️⃣ But they also ↘️ the returns to predation for bandits/looters.
 
2/13

Excited to see my JMP in the World Bank DIME Blog today!
tinyurl.com/3aa5w7bc

Many studies show short-run effects of agricultural shocks on violent conflict. My JMP asks: what about the long-run?

I find that desert locust swarm exposure persistently s conflict over the next 14 yrs. A 🧵

1/13

Happy for a great win my last time playing in the Berkeley-Stanford Econ Little Big Game. Always competitive and always so fun. A special part of my PhD experience and I will miss it! Now back to the job market grind. #GoBears