Pawel Adrjan
banner
paweladrjan.bsky.social
Pawel Adrjan
@paweladrjan.bsky.social
Economist at Indeed
Research fellow at Regent's Park College, Oxford
📈 Using data to make the world of work better for all 🌈
https://sites.google.com/site/paweladrjaneconomics/
Sevilla, España
In summary:
🗣️ Political rhetoric matters for people's choice of where to live and work
📉 It can trigger outflows of talent, even without changing the law
Paper: iza.org/publications...
Blog post: www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025...
When Exclusionary Rhetoric Drives Relocation: How an Anti-LGBTQ+ Environment Impacts the Labour Market - Indeed Hiring Lab UK I Ireland
Exclusionary government rhetoric, even when not immediately backed by legal changes, can have tangible effects on people's behaviour, including fundamental decisions like where to live and work.
www.hiringlab.org
November 1, 2025 at 7:38 PM
We find no effect on job postings or public safety. In other words, people weren’t leaving because of fewer jobs or rising crime. They were leaving because of hostile political declarations
November 1, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Census data shows a 1% drop in the young adult population in affected areas (with a statistically significant effect for women,) meaning that "symbolic" political rhetoric had real demographic consequences
November 1, 2025 at 7:37 PM
This probably wasn’t just LGBTQ+ individuals. Others also likely responded to the social signal.

Migration intentions rose most where prior support for far-right parties was lower, suggesting a surprise factor of political actions clashing with local social norms
November 1, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Jobseekers didn’t just look anywhere. They searched in more inclusive areas, both within Poland and abroad (esp. EU countries with same-sex marriage).

In other words, people actively sought places where social norms aligned with their own
November 1, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Using data on 67 million job-search clicks on Indeed, we found:
📈 a 12% rise in domestic out-of-county search
🌐a 15% rise in international search
immediately after these resolutions were adopted
November 1, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Between 2019 and 2021, nearly 100 Polish localities declared themselves “free from LGBT ideology.”

These declarations carried no legal force, but they sent a clear social/political signal and were widely publicized
November 1, 2025 at 7:36 PM
The overall share of UK postings mentioning remote and/or hybrid work has remained fairly stable at around 15% for several months, near all-time highs.

A screenshot from our Data Portal:
September 25, 2025 at 6:14 PM
While labour markets are tighter in the North, they're hotter in the South. More details in our post on the Hiring Lab blog: www.hiringlab.org/uk/blog/2025...
Why Europe’s Labour Markets Are Hotter in the South but Tighter in the North - Indeed Hiring Lab UK I Ireland
Diverging job posting trends are leading to a convergence in labour market tightness among the Eurozone’s biggest economies.
www.hiringlab.org
September 8, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Reported labour shortages tell a similar story. Industrial firms in Spain and Italy now report more shortages than Germany and France. But the North–South gap has narrowed sharply since mid-2022
September 8, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Hiring trends reflect economic momentum. Job posting growth closely tracks GDP growth: Spain’s GDP is up 8.8% and Italy’s 6.3% since Q4 2019, while Germany is nearly flat (0.3%) and France around 5%
September 8, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Labour markets remain tighter in Germany and France than in Italy and Spain. However, the gap is shrinking as job vacancies fall in the North and rise in the South
September 8, 2025 at 6:46 AM
Full paper (open access):
doi.org/10.1016/j.la...
July 10, 2025 at 7:16 AM
This isn't just about pandemic response. It's path dependency:
- Organisational learning
- Tech already in place pre-COVID
- Permanently higher worker demand (chart 👇)

Employers adapted to #WFH and many aren't turning back, despite some highly publicised #RTO calls
July 10, 2025 at 7:15 AM