Pavel Slunkin
@pavelslunkin.bsky.social
Political analyst, ECFR. Former diplomat. Currently at Harvard
Lukashenka about the U.S. negotiators:
“The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”
“The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”
October 31, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Lukashenka about the U.S. negotiators:
“The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”
“The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”
News of “authoritarian stability”:
In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.”
The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.
In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.”
The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.
October 30, 2025 at 2:53 PM
News of “authoritarian stability”:
In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.”
The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.
In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.”
The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.
Highly respected President of Belarus
August 15, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Highly respected President of Belarus
Summary of Lukashenka’s interview with @shustry.bsky.social from TIME:
“Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”
“Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”
August 8, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Summary of Lukashenka’s interview with @shustry.bsky.social from TIME:
“Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”
“Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”
I’m watching a video of distinguished, talented American diplomats departing the State Department to the applause of their colleagues and the tearful embraces of loved ones waiting outside. My heart is with you today.
⬇️ 🧵
⬇️ 🧵
July 12, 2025 at 6:10 PM
I’m watching a video of distinguished, talented American diplomats departing the State Department to the applause of their colleagues and the tearful embraces of loved ones waiting outside. My heart is with you today.
⬇️ 🧵
⬇️ 🧵
How a Ukrainian taxi driver helped me get into Harvard.
A Sunday thread 🧵
A Sunday thread 🧵
June 29, 2025 at 12:31 PM
How a Ukrainian taxi driver helped me get into Harvard.
A Sunday thread 🧵
A Sunday thread 🧵
Lukashenka
VS
His opponent Tsikhanouski
What do you notice?
VS
His opponent Tsikhanouski
What do you notice?
June 26, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Lukashenka
VS
His opponent Tsikhanouski
What do you notice?
VS
His opponent Tsikhanouski
What do you notice?
Reposted by Pavel Slunkin
A thread 🧵 by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social on xhitter about meeting between Lukashenka 🇧🇾 and Kellogg 🇺🇸
💁♂️
💁♂️
June 23, 2025 at 1:16 AM
A thread 🧵 by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social on xhitter about meeting between Lukashenka 🇧🇾 and Kellogg 🇺🇸
💁♂️
💁♂️
❤️❤️❤️
Please give @pavelslunkin.bsky.social follow. We need more quality security and political analysis on 🦋
June 23, 2025 at 1:17 AM
❤️❤️❤️
Reposted by Pavel Slunkin
One of yesterday's big stories was the surprise release of political prisoners by the illegitimate "president" of Belarus.
Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
June 22, 2025 at 11:52 AM
One of yesterday's big stories was the surprise release of political prisoners by the illegitimate "president" of Belarus.
Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
U.S.–Iran: new chapter unfolding
June 22, 2025 at 12:05 AM
U.S.–Iran: new chapter unfolding
My very brief, speculative take on today’s talks:
June 21, 2025 at 7:53 PM
My very brief, speculative take on today’s talks:
Belarusian jails in two pictures: Tsikhanouski before and after imprisonment
June 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Belarusian jails in two pictures: Tsikhanouski before and after imprisonment
Funny moment: Keith Kellog describes Lukashenka’s office: “With all this gold, it looks a lot like Mar-a-Lago.”
The Belarusian Ambassador to the UN, interpreting, mistranslated it as: “It’s better to see this than a golf club at Mar-a-Lago.”
The Belarusian Ambassador to the UN, interpreting, mistranslated it as: “It’s better to see this than a golf club at Mar-a-Lago.”
June 21, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Funny moment: Keith Kellog describes Lukashenka’s office: “With all this gold, it looks a lot like Mar-a-Lago.”
The Belarusian Ambassador to the UN, interpreting, mistranslated it as: “It’s better to see this than a golf club at Mar-a-Lago.”
The Belarusian Ambassador to the UN, interpreting, mistranslated it as: “It’s better to see this than a golf club at Mar-a-Lago.”
After Kellog’s visit to Belarus, Lukashenka released Siarhei Tsikhanouski — a former presidential candidate and the husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was arrested by the regime — along with 13 other political prisoners.
Siarhei and Sviatlana met in Vilnius.
Such great news!
Siarhei and Sviatlana met in Vilnius.
Such great news!
June 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
After Kellog’s visit to Belarus, Lukashenka released Siarhei Tsikhanouski — a former presidential candidate and the husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was arrested by the regime — along with 13 other political prisoners.
Siarhei and Sviatlana met in Vilnius.
Such great news!
Siarhei and Sviatlana met in Vilnius.
Such great news!
Ok, he is getting nervous
June 18, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Ok, he is getting nervous
9 years ago, I met Pope Francis for the first time at the UN General Assembly. He said that international law and human rights 'are lights which help to dispel the darkness of the disorder caused by unrestrained ambitions.'
Today, these words sound even more resonant and urgent.
Today, these words sound even more resonant and urgent.
April 24, 2025 at 5:10 PM
9 years ago, I met Pope Francis for the first time at the UN General Assembly. He said that international law and human rights 'are lights which help to dispel the darkness of the disorder caused by unrestrained ambitions.'
Today, these words sound even more resonant and urgent.
Today, these words sound even more resonant and urgent.
From RAND 2019 report:
“Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate.
China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate”
“Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate.
China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate”
March 23, 2025 at 6:34 PM
From RAND 2019 report:
“Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate.
China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate”
“Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate.
China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate”
U.S. policy once served as a clear deterrent for autocrats, who knew there were lines not to cross. Now, those lines are gone. A NATO member can arrest the leading opposition figure - the mayor of the largest city, ban protests and media coverage, and Washington won’t care. /1 ⬇️
March 23, 2025 at 12:29 PM
U.S. policy once served as a clear deterrent for autocrats, who knew there were lines not to cross. Now, those lines are gone. A NATO member can arrest the leading opposition figure - the mayor of the largest city, ban protests and media coverage, and Washington won’t care. /1 ⬇️
Americans traditionally stop supporting U.S.’s war efforts three years after the start of military action. Ukraine fits into this trend of fatigue.
Chart by Matthew Baum
Chart by Matthew Baum
March 11, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Americans traditionally stop supporting U.S.’s war efforts three years after the start of military action. Ukraine fits into this trend of fatigue.
Chart by Matthew Baum
Chart by Matthew Baum
Georgia. The hundredth (!!!) day of protests. Without a break. Without excuses. When democracy is breaking down all over the world. This is called perseverance and resilience. ❤️
March 8, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Georgia. The hundredth (!!!) day of protests. Without a break. Without excuses. When democracy is breaking down all over the world. This is called perseverance and resilience. ❤️
A photo that reflects my mood: complete darkness, pouring rain, and strong winds all around. But thanks to decent people, there is light. And hope.
March 7, 2025 at 2:16 PM
A photo that reflects my mood: complete darkness, pouring rain, and strong winds all around. But thanks to decent people, there is light. And hope.
A lesson learned by Belarusians over the past five years. It will be useful for my European and American friends who keep asking, “Where is the bottom?!” Well, there is no bottom. Brace yourselves - it will only get worse. And worse. And worse.
February 28, 2025 at 8:55 PM
A lesson learned by Belarusians over the past five years. It will be useful for my European and American friends who keep asking, “Where is the bottom?!” Well, there is no bottom. Brace yourselves - it will only get worse. And worse. And worse.