Paul Swinney
@paulswinney.bsky.social
Chief Economist at The Data City. Formerly of Centre for Cities. Posting mainly about economics.
Lots of discussion recently on US ownership of UK AI activities. But what does the data say?
🔵US ownership is higher in AI than other 'frontier' sectors - 7% Al v 2% overall. So larger, but still small.
🔵But for large AI firms, US ownership rises to 30%...
🔵US ownership is higher in AI than other 'frontier' sectors - 7% Al v 2% overall. So larger, but still small.
🔵But for large AI firms, US ownership rises to 30%...
October 8, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Lots of discussion recently on US ownership of UK AI activities. But what does the data say?
🔵US ownership is higher in AI than other 'frontier' sectors - 7% Al v 2% overall. So larger, but still small.
🔵But for large AI firms, US ownership rises to 30%...
🔵US ownership is higher in AI than other 'frontier' sectors - 7% Al v 2% overall. So larger, but still small.
🔵But for large AI firms, US ownership rises to 30%...
This is particularly because most big cities are way below where they should be.
The r'ship between city size and their numbers of IS sector firms is positive, but very weak.
Why? Because most large cities sit under the trend line, pulling it down. It shouldn't be like this.
The r'ship between city size and their numbers of IS sector firms is positive, but very weak.
Why? Because most large cities sit under the trend line, pulling it down. It shouldn't be like this.
June 25, 2025 at 3:33 PM
This is particularly because most big cities are way below where they should be.
The r'ship between city size and their numbers of IS sector firms is positive, but very weak.
Why? Because most large cities sit under the trend line, pulling it down. It shouldn't be like this.
The r'ship between city size and their numbers of IS sector firms is positive, but very weak.
Why? Because most large cities sit under the trend line, pulling it down. It shouldn't be like this.
But this only works in the South East.
Elsewhere there's hardly any difference between urban and non-urban.
Elsewhere there's hardly any difference between urban and non-urban.
June 25, 2025 at 3:31 PM
But this only works in the South East.
Elsewhere there's hardly any difference between urban and non-urban.
Elsewhere there's hardly any difference between urban and non-urban.
These cutting edge sectors prefer an urban location. Cities cover 9% of land, but 67% of firms in these sectors.
June 25, 2025 at 3:31 PM
These cutting edge sectors prefer an urban location. Cities cover 9% of land, but 67% of firms in these sectors.
What's the geography of the Government's chosen 8 sectors in the Industrial Strategy?
Here they are mapped using @thedatacity.bsky.social data.
They're currently very Greater South East focussed...
Here they are mapped using @thedatacity.bsky.social data.
They're currently very Greater South East focussed...
June 25, 2025 at 3:19 PM
What's the geography of the Government's chosen 8 sectors in the Industrial Strategy?
Here they are mapped using @thedatacity.bsky.social data.
They're currently very Greater South East focussed...
Here they are mapped using @thedatacity.bsky.social data.
They're currently very Greater South East focussed...
Tell me you've been reading @centreforcities.bsky.social's work without telling me you've been reading @centreforcities.bsky.social's work (from today's spending review)
June 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Tell me you've been reading @centreforcities.bsky.social's work without telling me you've been reading @centreforcities.bsky.social's work (from today's spending review)
The other banner was advertising the launch of a share offer to save a local pub.
Now call me a big silly billy, but perhaps building a few more homes, and increasing the pool of potential punters, might help keep the pub as a going concern.
Now call me a big silly billy, but perhaps building a few more homes, and increasing the pool of potential punters, might help keep the pub as a going concern.
June 2, 2025 at 11:49 AM
The other banner was advertising the launch of a share offer to save a local pub.
Now call me a big silly billy, but perhaps building a few more homes, and increasing the pool of potential punters, might help keep the pub as a going concern.
Now call me a big silly billy, but perhaps building a few more homes, and increasing the pool of potential punters, might help keep the pub as a going concern.
One banner forewarns of impending doom.
Flooding! Water pollution! Lack of access to healthcare! To name just some mentioned.
And what was going to bring this doom? 116 homes. Yes, 116.
Flooding! Water pollution! Lack of access to healthcare! To name just some mentioned.
And what was going to bring this doom? 116 homes. Yes, 116.
June 2, 2025 at 11:49 AM
One banner forewarns of impending doom.
Flooding! Water pollution! Lack of access to healthcare! To name just some mentioned.
And what was going to bring this doom? 116 homes. Yes, 116.
Flooding! Water pollution! Lack of access to healthcare! To name just some mentioned.
And what was going to bring this doom? 116 homes. Yes, 116.
I was in Wells in the South West yesterday, when I came across these two banners side by side.
I assume there was no irony in their placement. But it shows in a microcosm one of the challenges of building in this country.
I assume there was no irony in their placement. But it shows in a microcosm one of the challenges of building in this country.
June 2, 2025 at 11:49 AM
I was in Wells in the South West yesterday, when I came across these two banners side by side.
I assume there was no irony in their placement. But it shows in a microcosm one of the challenges of building in this country.
I assume there was no irony in their placement. But it shows in a microcosm one of the challenges of building in this country.
And this hasn’t just happened around cities.
It’s happened *within* them too. (Greater) Manchester doesn’t generate enough prosperity for the people of Oldham to access, never mind Ormskirk.
It’s happened *within* them too. (Greater) Manchester doesn’t generate enough prosperity for the people of Oldham to access, never mind Ormskirk.
April 29, 2025 at 11:09 AM
And this hasn’t just happened around cities.
It’s happened *within* them too. (Greater) Manchester doesn’t generate enough prosperity for the people of Oldham to access, never mind Ormskirk.
It’s happened *within* them too. (Greater) Manchester doesn’t generate enough prosperity for the people of Oldham to access, never mind Ormskirk.
It is for this reasons that levels of discontent around London and Bristol - 2 successful places that generate a lot of prosperity - are lower than in hinterlands elsewhere.
Here's that chart again
Here's that chart again
April 29, 2025 at 11:09 AM
It is for this reasons that levels of discontent around London and Bristol - 2 successful places that generate a lot of prosperity - are lower than in hinterlands elsewhere.
Here's that chart again
Here's that chart again
Throw in the links a surrounding place has with the big city (proxied by the % of people commuting to the city centre, where high-skilled jobs cluster) and the pictures changes.
The stronger the access to prosperity that a big city creates, the lower the discontent.
The stronger the access to prosperity that a big city creates, the lower the discontent.
April 29, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Throw in the links a surrounding place has with the big city (proxied by the % of people commuting to the city centre, where high-skilled jobs cluster) and the pictures changes.
The stronger the access to prosperity that a big city creates, the lower the discontent.
The stronger the access to prosperity that a big city creates, the lower the discontent.
On a first look that’s understandable. Voters in areas around big cities have more likely voted for Brexit and Reform UK in 2016 and 2024 than their urban counterparts.
Case closed, some say.
But not so fast.
Case closed, some say.
But not so fast.
April 29, 2025 at 11:04 AM
On a first look that’s understandable. Voters in areas around big cities have more likely voted for Brexit and Reform UK in 2016 and 2024 than their urban counterparts.
Case closed, some say.
But not so fast.
Case closed, some say.
But not so fast.
The most striking thing is this: places with lower productivity are more exposed to the tariffs
April 9, 2025 at 10:20 AM
The most striking thing is this: places with lower productivity are more exposed to the tariffs
Quiz time: which city or large town am I visiting today? 🤔
February 17, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Quiz time: which city or large town am I visiting today? 🤔
We've had fabulous backing from a number of people to promote the book, and we know of it being in at least 20 countries around the world.
February 7, 2025 at 7:37 AM
We've had fabulous backing from a number of people to promote the book, and we know of it being in at least 20 countries around the world.
To bring them into line, the underperformers need to move up to the line i.e. increase wages.
The overperformers need to move right - they already perform strongly. The goal is to make that prosperity available to a greater number of people.
The overperformers need to move right - they already perform strongly. The goal is to make that prosperity available to a greater number of people.
January 23, 2025 at 8:55 AM
To bring them into line, the underperformers need to move up to the line i.e. increase wages.
The overperformers need to move right - they already perform strongly. The goal is to make that prosperity available to a greater number of people.
The overperformers need to move right - they already perform strongly. The goal is to make that prosperity available to a greater number of people.
First some definitions. The chart plots size v wages. Following theory, the larger places get, the higher the wages they offer.
Overperformers on this chart are those above the line e.g. Oxford and Cambridge.
Underperformers are below the line e.g. Manchester & Birmingham.
Overperformers on this chart are those above the line e.g. Oxford and Cambridge.
Underperformers are below the line e.g. Manchester & Birmingham.
January 23, 2025 at 8:53 AM
First some definitions. The chart plots size v wages. Following theory, the larger places get, the higher the wages they offer.
Overperformers on this chart are those above the line e.g. Oxford and Cambridge.
Underperformers are below the line e.g. Manchester & Birmingham.
Overperformers on this chart are those above the line e.g. Oxford and Cambridge.
Underperformers are below the line e.g. Manchester & Birmingham.
The legendary Sunderland pink slice is in the office today to celebrate the launch of #citiesoutlook2025 @centreforcities.bsky.social
January 20, 2025 at 8:20 AM
The legendary Sunderland pink slice is in the office today to celebrate the launch of #citiesoutlook2025 @centreforcities.bsky.social
9. Local government reorganisation
We have too many local authorities that dilute the little power that local government has and don’t reflect how people live their lives. The Govt wants to rationalise this. Here’s our suggestion.
Expect some arguments about this in 2025.
We have too many local authorities that dilute the little power that local government has and don’t reflect how people live their lives. The Govt wants to rationalise this. Here’s our suggestion.
Expect some arguments about this in 2025.
December 20, 2024 at 12:53 PM
9. Local government reorganisation
We have too many local authorities that dilute the little power that local government has and don’t reflect how people live their lives. The Govt wants to rationalise this. Here’s our suggestion.
Expect some arguments about this in 2025.
We have too many local authorities that dilute the little power that local government has and don’t reflect how people live their lives. The Govt wants to rationalise this. Here’s our suggestion.
Expect some arguments about this in 2025.
8. New towns
The Government wants to build new towns and urban extensions. This is where they would be most viable (where £ can be raised to pay for infra, social housing etc)- mainly locations in the Greater South East.
88% of this land is on existing green belt. Reform please.
The Government wants to build new towns and urban extensions. This is where they would be most viable (where £ can be raised to pay for infra, social housing etc)- mainly locations in the Greater South East.
88% of this land is on existing green belt. Reform please.
December 20, 2024 at 12:49 PM
8. New towns
The Government wants to build new towns and urban extensions. This is where they would be most viable (where £ can be raised to pay for infra, social housing etc)- mainly locations in the Greater South East.
88% of this land is on existing green belt. Reform please.
The Government wants to build new towns and urban extensions. This is where they would be most viable (where £ can be raised to pay for infra, social housing etc)- mainly locations in the Greater South East.
88% of this land is on existing green belt. Reform please.
7. The planning system
Let’s go back to planning. In any usual market supply responds to demand. Our planning system has been progressively making sure that doesn’t happen in England. Look how the relationship breaks down.
This is bad. Reform please.
Let’s go back to planning. In any usual market supply responds to demand. Our planning system has been progressively making sure that doesn’t happen in England. Look how the relationship breaks down.
This is bad. Reform please.
December 20, 2024 at 12:46 PM
7. The planning system
Let’s go back to planning. In any usual market supply responds to demand. Our planning system has been progressively making sure that doesn’t happen in England. Look how the relationship breaks down.
This is bad. Reform please.
Let’s go back to planning. In any usual market supply responds to demand. Our planning system has been progressively making sure that doesn’t happen in England. Look how the relationship breaks down.
This is bad. Reform please.
6. Covid and the great escape to the country
Speaking of Covid, we were told that everyone was fleeing the big city 4eva. Heres’s what actually happened - net flow of people between London and the rest of England & Wales (y-axis) by age group (x-axis).
Speaking of Covid, we were told that everyone was fleeing the big city 4eva. Heres’s what actually happened - net flow of people between London and the rest of England & Wales (y-axis) by age group (x-axis).
December 20, 2024 at 12:41 PM
6. Covid and the great escape to the country
Speaking of Covid, we were told that everyone was fleeing the big city 4eva. Heres’s what actually happened - net flow of people between London and the rest of England & Wales (y-axis) by age group (x-axis).
Speaking of Covid, we were told that everyone was fleeing the big city 4eva. Heres’s what actually happened - net flow of people between London and the rest of England & Wales (y-axis) by age group (x-axis).
5. Return to the office
Amazon will call everyone back for the full 5 days from January.
This is quite some difference from the world of 2020 when we were told ‘the office genie is out of the bottle’, it’s #wfh 4eva.
Here’s how the return to the office is playing out in central London.
Amazon will call everyone back for the full 5 days from January.
This is quite some difference from the world of 2020 when we were told ‘the office genie is out of the bottle’, it’s #wfh 4eva.
Here’s how the return to the office is playing out in central London.
December 20, 2024 at 12:41 PM
5. Return to the office
Amazon will call everyone back for the full 5 days from January.
This is quite some difference from the world of 2020 when we were told ‘the office genie is out of the bottle’, it’s #wfh 4eva.
Here’s how the return to the office is playing out in central London.
Amazon will call everyone back for the full 5 days from January.
This is quite some difference from the world of 2020 when we were told ‘the office genie is out of the bottle’, it’s #wfh 4eva.
Here’s how the return to the office is playing out in central London.
4. G7 & economic growth
The Govt set its growth target to be the fastest growing country in the G7.
Why do G7 leaders do better than us? Because their second tier cities (e.g. Lyon) do better than ours (e.g. Manchester).
Being G7 leading means sorting out our large cities.
The Govt set its growth target to be the fastest growing country in the G7.
Why do G7 leaders do better than us? Because their second tier cities (e.g. Lyon) do better than ours (e.g. Manchester).
Being G7 leading means sorting out our large cities.
December 20, 2024 at 12:32 PM
4. G7 & economic growth
The Govt set its growth target to be the fastest growing country in the G7.
Why do G7 leaders do better than us? Because their second tier cities (e.g. Lyon) do better than ours (e.g. Manchester).
Being G7 leading means sorting out our large cities.
The Govt set its growth target to be the fastest growing country in the G7.
Why do G7 leaders do better than us? Because their second tier cities (e.g. Lyon) do better than ours (e.g. Manchester).
Being G7 leading means sorting out our large cities.